However, Lopez Obrador has decided not to recognize the results and instead to challenge them officially in the election court. Despite Lopez Obrador's challenge, the country remains calm. Mexico's electoral authorities and the electorate are likely to accept the election results in what could be the ultimate test of Mexico's 20-year-old democratic process.

Mexico's presidential election July 2 was the closest in the country's history. Just as opinion polls had predicted before the election, there was a negligible amount of difference between support for National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon and for Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. On July 6, with 99.96 percent of the votes counted, Calderon maintained an advantage of 0.56 percent over Lopez Obrador.

After decades of suspicious electoral processes, one of Mexico's main political transformations during the past 15 years was the decision to build a reliable and independent electoral structure: the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), an independent body in charge of organizing federal elections in Mexico since 1994. The 1994 and 2000 Mexican presidential elections were regarded as clean, and in 1996 the IFE achieved total autonomy from the government and the Federal Electoral Court (TEPJF) was created just to handle electoral issues. However, since the beginning of this election season, Lopez Obrador has cast doubt on the IFE and refused to commit to recognizing the election results if he lost. Since Calderon's lead appears to be holding, Lopez Obrador announced the morning of July 6 that he and the PRD are challenging the election results and calling for a manual recount of the votes.

Given that Calderon and Lopez Obrador each have more than 14 million votes, either candidate would be able to mobilize supporters if needed -- yet Mexico has remained calm in spite of Lopez Obrador's challenge. Even though Lopez Obrador's contention is not with possible fraud but simply with the vote tabulations, this election could be the greatest test Mexico's democratic institutions have faced.

The legal path is certain, if lengthy: Votes were counted on election day, and the official tally and registration began July 5. IFE is set to announce an official result July 6 (as of this writing, the result has not yet been announced). The results will then be sent to the TEPJF for certification. That is the point at which the political parties can challenge the election in the court. After that, the worst-case scenario is that the TEPJF will take the maximum time allowed by law to certify the results, and the election will not be finalized until Sept. 7. Given the PRD's request for a total recount, it is very probable that Mexico will not have an official president-elect for several weeks, though the process is not likely to drag on to the latest possible date. Even after the court makes its decision, the PRD has not clearly signaled that it will accept the results even if the recount shows that Lopez Obrador lost the election.

This election is a test not only for Mexico's electoral authorities, but also for the political actors' negotiation and conciliation abilities. The results indicate that the country is deeply divided; exit polls show that Calderon got most of the votes among the richest two-fifths of the population and tied with Lopez Obrador among voters in the poorest fifth of the population. In geographic terms, Calderon won 16 states, all but two of which were in the north and western regions of the country. Lopez Obrador also won 16 states, all but two of which were in southern and central Mexico. Despite the closeness of the overall election results, few states were divided; Lopez Obrador won more than 60 percent of the votes in Mexico City, and Calderon did the same in several states like Guanajuato and Jalisco.

Given that around 35 percent of Mexico's voters supported Lopez Obrador, Calderon will need to shore up support from other segments of the population. This is especially important given that the July 2 congressional election left no party with an overall majority in either congressional house, though Calderon's PAN will have the relative majority in both the Senate and the House. Support from the once-powerful Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) could prove critical. Robert Madrazo, PRI's presidential candidate, came in third, just as opinion polls forecast; however, it was a very distant third. The PRI also lost its relative majority in the House and Senate and is relegated to third place in Congress. However, the PRI still has the support of about 25 percent of the population and thus could give Calderon a credibility boost and political support. Madrazo has already recognized his defeat and called the presidential election "fair, legal and legitimate." A negotiation with the PRI could not only help legitimize Calderon's victory, it could also help build a coalition in Congress to pass reforms once Calderon assumes power. However, a revolt to renew the leadership has started inside the PRI; the party's ability to show the electorate a commitment to change will be critical for the PRI's survival.

Calderon will face a tough healing process, though he indicated even before the election that he would seek to create some kind of coalition government. Even if the PRD loses its challenge -- as the results seem to indicate will happen -- it won its largest share of the vote ever and will become the second-largest force in Congress, with more seats than it has previously held.

Calderon will be declared the winner July 6, although the results will still not be official until the TEPJF validates and certifies the election. It will take several more days to resolve any PRD challenges. However, Calderon's victory has now been confirmed by the preliminary and official vote counts. If Lopez Obrador clearly states that he is committed to recognizing the final results, there will not necessarily be a problem if the election's certification is delayed a few days. However, as expected, Lopez Obrador has yet to make a declaration in which he says he will accept the results. He will face increasing pressure from the business sector, media and the population in general to accept the results, especially because he does not seem to have a strong case for overturning the results; if the court accepts a recount, Lopez Obrador will have no case at all. Violence has not erupted over the hotly contested election, and it seems very likely that both the electoral authorities and the populace will pass what could be Mexico's greatest democratic test to date.