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27/02/2007 | Mexico's Newest Criminal Refuge

Stratfor Staff

Mexican Federal Police said Feb. 22 they have recovered the bodies of two men they believe were killed in an attack related to organized crime in Aguascalientes state. The discovery comes amid a wave of violence in the once-peaceful state as criminals shift their operations in response to a federal crackdown in other areas.

 

Mexican Federal Police confirmed Feb. 22 that the bodies of two men -- apparent victims of organized crime -- had been found on a ranch in central Mexico's Aguascalientes state. The discovery brings to seven the number of people killed in a recent wave of violence in the once-peaceful state, about 250 miles northwest of Mexico City. This uptick in violence, which follows the deployment of federal troops to states both north and south of Aguascalientes in the wake of increased drug-related violence in those areas, is likely attributable to the movement of drug traffickers and other criminals into Aguascalientes.

It is unclear how the latest victims were killed, though investigators have learned that the ranch where they died, known as "El Cancho," was rented 15 days ago and reportedly was being used as a safe-house by members of an organized crime gang, possibly a drug cartel. Police confiscated two vehicles, radios and arms during their search of the ranch.

Five other killings also believed to be related to organized crime have occurred in Aguascalientes over the past eight days. In the latest incident, the remains of a 42-year-old man who apparently had been beaten to death was discovered Feb. 20 with a note attached to the body indicating he had crossed the La Familia drug-trafficking organization. Police said that death could be linked to the killing of four municipal policemen who were gunned down by 10 attackers Feb. 15 in the city of Aguascalientes. That shootout started after police, responding to the scene of an accident, surprised suspects in the process of transferring weapons out of a wrecked vehicle. Shortly thereafter, however, gunmen arrived at the scene and began firing at police. The attackers were apprehended after a chase involving some 60 police reinforcements.

According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), Aguascalienties was considered one of the top five safest cities in Mexico and was largely free from organized crime. The recent shift in criminal activity to the state, however, already is resulting in an increase in weapons transports in the area -- and claiming lives.

Shortly after taking office in December 2006, Mexican President Felipe Calderon deployed some 6,500 federal police and troops to his home state of Michoacan in an effort to bring spiraling drug-related violence under control there. He then sent some 3,000 troops to Baja California state in response to violence in the northern border city of Tijuana and, later, nearly 8,000 security personnel to Guerrero state. More recently, some 3,300 Mexican soldiers, sailors and federal police were sent to the northeastern border states of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas in response to increased cartel activity in and around the cities of Monterrey, Reynosa, Nuevo Laredo and Matamoros.

The northern border city of Matamoros was the site of a Feb. 11 seizure of a large weapons shipment that likely was intended for one of two major drug cartels involved in a dispute with each other and with authorities in the region. Eight days later in Nuevo Laredo, another border city in Tamaulipas state, gunmen attacked a vehicle occupied by Mexican congressman Horacio Garza, wounding Garza and killing his driver. In Guerrero state, more federal troops had to be sent to reinforce those already deployed there after gunmen attacked two police stations in the tourist resort of Acapulco on Feb. 6.

The federal troops have had mixed success in areas where they have been deployed, but the Aguascalientes violence suggests the criminals are following a path of least resistance and fleeing to safer ground. In fact, reports from Mexico indicate the cartels' command structures have mostly remained intact despite recent arrests. In the long run,
eradicating the cartels does not appear to be in the cards.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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