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10/03/2009 | Mexico - Juarez Calming Down?

Stratfor Staff

After months of record-breaking violence in Ciudad Juarez, this past week showed the recent influx of troops to the city may be having a positive effect. There were some 1,600 organized crime-related homicides in Ciudad Juarez during 2008, and in January 2009 the city averaged about 13 killings per day. In response to this continued violence, the Mexican government began sending an additional 5,000 military and 1,000 federal police forces to the city during the week of March 2, to reinforce the estimated 2,500 troops already there. Since then, the city’s homicide rate has dropped drastically, to what appears to be between one and two deaths per day.

 

As STRATFOR reported last week, this most recent deployment — which represents a more than threefold increase in forces stationed in Ciudad Juarez — involves an unusually high concentration of forces for the Mexican government. Nowhere else in the country has the federal government deployed such a large number of troops during the last two years of counternarcotics operations. And as this past week has shown, the move has certainly paid off in terms of reducing violence in the area.

The question remains, however, how long that number of troops can be sustained. As the country’s drug cartels experience less freedom to operate in Juarez, it is almost inevitable that they will shift the battlefield elsewhere. As of yet, there is no clear indication where that will be, but one strong possibility is northern Tamaulipas state, primarily Reynosa and Nuevo Laredo. Nuevo Laredo, in particular, has historically been an important transshipment point for drugs traveling along the federal highway between Monterrey and the U.S. border. Drug traffickers in Reynosa have been engaged in several recent firefights, one of which reportedly resulted in the death of a Gulf Cartel plaza boss. Although the area has been relatively calm for more than six months, the changing situation in Juarez could open the area up to more violence.

The United States and Mexico

Mexico’s continuing violence resulted in another U.S. travel warning U.S. travel warning being issued this past week — this one from the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). The alert — unusual for the ATF — came during Mexico’s spring break travel season, when thousands of U.S. and Canadian university students visit the country’s various beach resort towns. While such travel alerts may be prudent advice for U.S. citizens, they also risk upsetting the Mexican government, which has rejected negative characterizations of the country’s security situation and suggestions that it could become a failed state.

Despite these occasional bumps in the road, the U.S. and Mexican governments have broad levels of cooperation in many areas relating to the cartel war. These strong ties were highlighted during the last few years of the Bush administration by visits to Mexico by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, not to mention the implementation of the Merida Initiative, a U.S. counternarcotics aid program that would put some $2 billion toward several countries in Latin America, including Mexico. This trend appears to be continuing under U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration, as evidenced by U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen’s visit to Mexico this past week.

Mullen, whose visit came as part of a regional tour that also included a stop in Colombia, met with Mexican military leaders to discuss expanding bilateral military cooperation. Mexico’s memories of U.S. military intervention historically have been an obstacle to greater military cooperation, but the deteriorating security situation could ultimately change that.

March 3

·Several armed men entered a restaurant in Zapopan, Jalisco state, and opened fire, killing at least one man. Authorities identified the victim as a member of the Sinaloa cartel.

·Police in Pungarabato, Guerrero state, found the body of an unidentified man who had been beaten and shot several times.

·Authorities in Tecate and Tijuana, Baja California state, found the dismembered bodies of three men and two women in separate incidents.

·A police commander in Tapachula, Chiapas state, was wounded when armed men traveling in two vehicles opened fire on him while he was driving with his wife and two daughters.

March 4

·Police near Culiacan, Sinaloa state, found the bodies of a man and a woman who had been reported kidnapped the previous day.

·Two Colombian men were arrested in Jurica, Queretaro state, on charges related to drug trafficking after police received an anonymous tip.

March 5

·Police in Ciudad Altamirano, Guerrero state, found the body of a man bound at the hands. Beside him was a plastic bag containing three mutilated fingers.

·Authorities in Cancun, Quintana Roo state, found the body of an unidentified woman inside a plastic bag and buried in cement.

·The body of a hotel owner was found in Salvador Alvarado, Sinaloa state, wrapped in plastic. The victim, who appeared to have died of asphyxia, reportedly was kidnapped by a group of armed men the previous day.

March 7

·A group of armed men traveling in several trucks set fire to three homes and seven vehicles in Zirandaro de los Chavez, Guerrero state.

March 8

·At least three people were killed and five wounded during a firefight between armed men and federal police in Reynosa, Tamaulipas state.

·Authorities identified a beheaded body found March 3 in Tijuana, Baja California state, as a U.S. citizen suspected of involvement in drug trafficking.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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