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24/08/2012 | US Election 2012- Mitt Romney’s chances. The changing man

The Economist Staff

He has many factors in his favour. But to win the presidency Mitt Romney will have to reinvent himself once again—this time as a likeable, sympathetic guy.

 

GEORGE ROMNEY, father of the present Republican presidential nominee and himself a candidate for the White House in 1968, used to joke that his campaign had been “like a miniskirt: short and revealing”. By analogy, his son Mitt’s bid for the presidency has been more of a crinoline: long and cumbersome.

The younger Mr Romney has been running for president for six years at least, since the waning days of his governorship of Massachusetts. He has proved doubters wrong by progressing as far as he has, in spite of his flip-flopping, his woodenness, his wealth and his Mormon faith. Yet he has not made it look easy, and is currently behind in the polls in an election that many pundits think is the Republicans’ to lose. Mr Romney, who will officially be anointed the Republican nominee at the party’s convention in Tampa on August 30th, is still very much in contention—but more by virtue of doggedness than flair.

Mr Romney has run for public office three times before. He won one of those races (for governor, in 2002) and lost the other two (for the Senate in 1994, and for president in 2008). He came third in the Republican presidential primaries last time round, measured by number of delegates won, or second, if you go by his share of the vote. He conceded to John McCain just over a month into the race.

This year, thanks in part to a more attenuated primary calendar, it took much longer to settle the nomination. A number of fancied candidates, including Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels (all successful current or former governors) failed to enter the race, leaving Mr Romney the favourite in a lacklustre field. Yet it was not until April that he finally dispatched Rick Santorum, a militantly conservative former senator from Pennsylvania who lost his re-election bid in 2006 by 18 points, and Newt Gingrich, a mercurial former Speaker of the House of Representatives who had “more baggage than the airlines”, as a pro-Romney ad memorably put it.

Chameleon-in-chief?

Mr Romney struggled in particular with the conservative base, who had misgivings about his inconsistent record. (His Mormonism, which is considered heretical by many evangelical Christians, may also have put off some religious voters.) Right-wing pundits dwelt on the fact that he had run for the Senate, and for governor of Massachusetts, promising not to limit access to abortion—but now claimed to be vehemently pro-life. By the same token, he had supported a regional cap-and-trade scheme to trim greenhouse-gas emissions in Massachusetts before renouncing it late in his governorship. He now says that the causes and extent of global warming are too uncertain to merit expensive efforts to fight it, especially in such grim economic times. Above all, he stoked suspicions on the right by championing health-care reforms in Massachusetts that served as the template for Barack Obama’s health-care law, before denouncing Obamacare as an affront to liberty that must be repealed.

In the end Mr Romney prevailed partly by adopting a series of positions designed to please right-wing primary voters. He unexpectedly unveiled a proposal for a whopping tax cut that the 59-point economic plan he released last year had mysteriously failed to mention. He also developed a fervent opposition to anything that smacked of compassion towards illegal immigrants, chastising both Mr Gingrich and Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, for their supposed lapses in that regard during debates among the Republican candidates. Mr Romney and his supporters also vastly outspent his rivals, blitzing them with vicious advertisements.

Since clinching the nomination, Mr Romney has moved back towards the centre in some respects. He has spent most of his time and advertising budget talking about the economy, rather than the more polarising social issues that often arose in the primaries. He has released a new immigration policy which makes no mention of his call for those present illegally to “self-deport”, but embraces some more cuddly-sounding goals such as reuniting families and making it easier for foreigners to take up seasonal jobs. He has also pledged to rescind the $716 billion in savings that Mr Obama’s health-care reforms aim to garner from Medicare over the next decade, presumably to curry favour with older voters.

Mr Romney’s advisers, a peculiar mix of zealots and moderates, provide little hint as to where his own instincts really lie. On immigration policy he has sought the advice of Kris Kobach, secretary of state of Kansas, and the guiding force behind controversial laws in Alabama and Arizona cracking down on illegal immigrants. On foreign policy he has consulted lots of bellicose neocons from the Bush administration, notably John Bolton, as well as a few more measured voices, such as Robert Zoellick. Two mainstream academics and former advisers to Mr Bush, Greg Mankiw and Glenn Hubbard, have the most prominent roles on the economic team.

The campaign has unveiled endless “advisory groups” on different topics—with more members than Mr Romney could possibly consult in a lifetime, let alone during a presidential campaign. It is hard to know whose counsel Mr Romney really values beyond that of his wife, a few former colleagues from his days as a private-equity investor, and senior campaign staff, many of whom are holdovers from his previous presidential run. Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee and co-founder of the Crossroads groups, which plan to spend hundreds of millions of dollars this year boosting Republican candidates (see Lexington), is also playing a role.

By picking Paul Ryan as his running mate this month, Mr Romney has further muddied the ideological waters. Mr Ryan, after all, is best known for his efforts to cut spending on entitlement programmes such as Medicare—something Mr Romney is now attacking Mr Obama for. His selection is widely seen as an effort to enthuse the Republican base, which likes his government-shrinking budget proposals. Democrats spy an opening: they are drooling at the chance to link Mr Romney with Mr Ryan’s ruthless proposed cuts to things like food stamps and student loans.

The scene is set for a close and bitter fight. The latest polls show Mr Romney trailing Mr Obama by 1.5%, according to RealClearPolitics, a website which calculates a rolling average. That is well within the typical margin of error. Although the odd poll puts Mr Romney in the lead, Mr Obama has maintained a narrow but consistent advantage in RealClearPolitics’ standings of 0.2-5.3% since Mr Romney clinched the nomination in April.

The presidency is not decided by a national vote, of course, but by state-by-state competitions for delegates in the electoral college. By that measure, too, Mr Obama seems to be in the lead—but not insuperably so. RealClearPolitics, this time using rolling averages of local polls, sees states with 221 of the 270 electoral-college votes needed to win leaning towards Mr Obama, compared with just 191 in Mr Romney’s column (see map). But that still leaves ten states worth 126 votes as toss-ups—more than enough to put Mr Romney over the top should the race swing his way between now and election day.

Summer polls, it should be said, are not a very reliable portent of how things will turn out in November. Moreover, the numbers are likely to bounce around over the next few weeks, thanks to the fleeting effects first of Mr Romney’s choice of Mr Ryan as his running mate, then of the Republican convention and finally of the Democratic one, which takes place in Charlotte, North Carolina during the first week of September.

Let battle commence

Mr Romney will certainly have plenty of money to burnish his image over the next two months. The long Republican primary had put him at a financial disadvantage, both by forcing him to spend money and by impeding him from raising it, even as Mr Obama stuffed his war chest. But for the past three months Mr Romney has outdone his rival in fund-raising. He and various closely allied branches of the Republican Party brought in a total of $207m in June and July—$60m more than the president. His support groups now have more cash on hand than their Democratic equivalents: $186m to $124m. The Romney campaign talks about raising $800m in all. The Obama campaign is aiming for $750m. It is a far cry from 2008, when Mr Obama spent twice what John McCain did.

The reversal is all the starker when you consider the notionally independent “outside groups” backing or attacking the candidates. The Republican ones have vastly outspent their Democratic counterparts so far, and seem likely to continue to do so. Mr Obama has been the victim of some $70m in attack ads from such outfits; Mr Romney has suffered only $30m-worth, mostly during the primaries.

Republicans are also cheered by Mr Obama’s “burn rate”: he is spending more than he is taking in. In July his expenses, of $59m, exceeded his income by $10m. The Obama campaign says the money is being well spent, on an early advertising binge aimed at denting Mr Romney’s reputation and on the development of a huge network of field offices. The campaign spent $3m on wages in July to Mr Romney’s $1.7m. In North Carolina, a state that Mr Obama won in 2008 but where Mr Romney is now favoured, the Obama campaign has 47 outposts to Mr Romney’s 19. All this is intended to allow the Democrats to drum up and turn out supporters in huge numbers, as Mr Obama did last time.

But the Romney campaign scoffs at its rivals’ talk of an election-winning “ground game”. They say the Democrats are wasting money on far too many field offices. What can all those Obama staffers in North Carolina possibly be doing, one Romney strategist asks. Anyway, efforts to mobilise Mr Obama’s supporters from 2008, using local volunteers, e-mail and social media rather than just television ads and mailings, will be counterproductive if voters have soured on the president.

Republicans have defied expectations by quickly rallying around Mr Romney, his campaign notes, whereas Democrats seem down in the dumps. In the latest Economist/You Gov poll, only 35% of Democrats said they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 50% of Republicans. Women, young people and minorities, the bedrock of Mr Obama’s electoral coalition, are notably lukewarm. Last time a presidential election hinged on turnout, in 2004, it was the Republicans who managed to muster more of their troops.

New data on voter registration bear out the Romney camp’s optimism. A recent study by the Third Way, a centrist Democratic think-tank, found that the number of registered Democrats in eight swing states had actually declined by over 800,000 since 2008, despite the gradual cranking up of the Obama turnout operation over the past year. (Republican registrations have also fallen, but by less than 80,000.) That is all the more remarkable because minorities’ share of the electorate is growing, whereas that of the white working class, a Republican mainstay, is shrinking.

Moreover, a series of new restrictions imposed, for the most part, by Republicans in state legislatures may also reduce Democratic turnout, if upheld by the courts. Florida and Ohio have cut back on early voting. Several more swing states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plan to start requiring voters to show certain forms of identification. Others have made it harder for potential voters to register.

These changes will affect over 5m people, according to the Brennan Centre for Justice at New York University. It says minorities, the young and the poor—all Democratic-leaning groups—will be disproportionately affected. In Pennsylvania the leader of the Republican majority in the state House of Representatives declared that the new voter-identification law “is going to allow Governor Romney to win the state”.

Mr Romney’s admen also believe they will have an easier time propagating their message, centred as it is on the economy. Mr Obama, who would rather talk about almost anything else, has to craft different pitches for different slices of the electorate: to the young he highlights how he has kept interest-rates low on government-backed student loans; to Hispanics, he trumpets a recent executive order making life easier for illegal immigrants. Mr Romney, by contrast, can simply harp on about high unemployment which, as it happens, has hit young people, Hispanics and (by some measures) women especially hard.

The electoral map reflects the Republicans’ improving fortunes. Talk of the president winning Arizona, which he lost last time, has faded. Indiana, which he won in 2008, now seems firmly in Mr Romney’s camp. RealClearPolitics rates as toss-ups states that the Democrats have won for decades, such as Michigan and Wisconsin.

Analysts often describe presidential elections involving an incumbent as a two-stage process. First, voters must decide whether the sitting president has done a good enough job to merit re-election. Only if they have qualms on that score do they begin to size up the challenger. Usually, an overall approval rating close to or above 50% signals victory for the incumbent; anything less creates an opening for his rival. Mr Obama sits right on the cusp: his approval rating is in the upper 40s, near the level at which Mr Bush prevailed in 2004 and Gerald Ford foundered in 1976.

Polling suggests that on the issue voters consider most important, the economy, they have soured on Mr Obama. A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which showed Mr Obama four points ahead of Mr Romney, nonetheless found that voters had more faith in Mr Romney when it came to improving the economy, by a margin of six points (see chart). Similarly, voters rate Mr Obama’s handling of the economy nine points lower than they do his overall performance, according to the Economist/YouGov poll. That gives Mr Romney an opening, and explains why his campaign dwells endlessly on the miserable state of the economy. Todd Akin, the Republican Senate nominee for Missouri whose idiotic remarks on rape caused such a furore this week (see article), is thus an unwelcome distraction.

Passing the “ordinary guy” test

The big problem is that voters do not seem to like Mr Romney very much. Only 38% of respondents in the Economist/YouGov poll professed a favourable opinion of him, compared with 44% for Mr Obama. Only 39% said they liked Mr Romney as a person, irrespective of his political views, compared with 57% for Mr Obama. Just 34% thought he cared about people like them, compared with 48% for Mr Obama. More than half of those planning to vote for Mr Romney say they are not endorsing him so much as rejecting Mr Obama.

Arguments about Mr Romney’s tax affairs and record in business refuse to go away. At a recent focus group in Wisconsin, a swing state, wavering female voters described him as a cold, distant and snooty figure with whom they would be uncomfortable socialising. They saw Mr Obama, by contrast, as a normal family man: one woman imagined him making pancakes for his children on a Saturday morning.

Although he is now a veteran of the hustings, Mr Romney can still sound distinctly wonkish, even awkward, when addressing supporters. At a rally on August 2nd at the Jefferson County fairgrounds outside Denver, he waved a printed report card measuring Mr Obama’s record against a string of 2008 campaign pledges. The president, he maintained, had earned “little red arrows” for failing to fulfil his promises. If elected, Mr Romney solemnly promised, his own report card would be filled with green ones.

Despite all the factors in Mr Romney’s favour, in short, he will struggle to win the election unless he does a better job of selling himself personally. There are signs that he is beginning to try. His campaign finally began running gauzy biographical advertisements during the Olympics, after loud complaints from Republican strategists that it was leaving it to the Obama campaign to introduce Mr Romney to voters. Having avoided any talk of his religion for months, Mr Romney invited reporters to attend church with him in mid-August.

Expect much more of that sort of thing at the convention: talk of Mr Romney’s piety; his devotion to his wife and family; his kindness to strangers. The most fungible of candidates will attempt to reinvent himself once again, as a likeable guy. Whether voters will find his latest incarnation any more consistent or credible than the previous ones remains to be seen.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House