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05/12/2006 | The Venezuelan Vote

Stratfor Staff

Incumbent President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela was elected to another six-year term on Sunday, amid widespread allegations of irregularities. Preliminary results showed Chavez captured 61.35 percent of the vote to opposition challenger Manuel Rosales' 38.39 percent, with 73 percent of the votes tallied. Rosales conceded the election late Sunday evening -- though contending that the margin was inaccurately reported by the National Electoral Council (CNE).

 

Allegations of voting fraud and other irregularities were rife throughout the day. Voters complained about long lines and delays, due to insufficient numbers of fingerprinting machines -- devices intended to keep voters from casting more than one ballot -- and malfunctioning technology, involving both fingerprinting and voting machines.

There also were reports that armed Venezuelan soldiers had forced voting stations to be reopened (a violation of electoral law) and that Colombians were illegally bused in to boost the Chavista vote. Gen. Wilfredo Silva denounced both of those reports during a National Armed Forces press conference, saying that the majority of problems involved people who attempted to vote twice, others who attempted to destroy voting machines and the intimidation of voters waiting in line by men on motorcycles wearing pro-Chavez T-shirts. Both Silva and CNE chief Tibisay Lucena said most of the complaints about irregularities were addressed on Sunday.

The allegations of fraud are not unexpected -- and in this case, they seem to be mainly a sideshow, since the opposition probably would not have been able to beat out Chavez even in a perfectly fair system. Even the most generous estimates suggest the opposition's support to be about 35 to 40 percent of Venezuelans, and the election point spread from the CNE was more or less what had been expected from polls.

Rosales has pledged to accept the election results, provided there is no evidence of dirty tricks or fraud. However, his willingness to concede the vote on Sunday despite the allegations that dirty tricks abounded likely will be a tremendous blow to his political career: The normally fractured opposition had been unusually unified behind Rosales -- who members had thought would stand up to Chavez -- and many doubtless are now disillusioned by his quick concession.

That said, the reluctance to protest the election outcome may stand as a pragmatic decision in the end. By avoiding a spectacle like that in Mexico, caused by failed presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Rosales may be attempting to preserve his credibility and viability as a future challenger to Chavez. Rosales has said he will focus on building and strengthening the opposition to democratically challenge the regime in the future.

With Rosales' concession, the focus now turns to the opposition itself and the possibility of demonstrations. An opposition protest march was planned in Caracas for Monday -- but without Rosales, the movement ultimately may lack the cohesion and leadership necessary to make a strong impact. As of early Monday morning, Venezuelans seemed to be receiving the news of another six years under Chavez with equanimity

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 2861 to 2863 of 2863 )
fecha titulo
23/01/2003 Venezuela Reality Check
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30/11/1999 Iran, Venezuela revise ties ahead of Chavez visit


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