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31/01/2007 | Hu's Visit to Africa: More Deals than Diplomacy

Stratfor Staff

Chinese President Hu Jintao begins an eight-nation tour of Africa on Jan. 30. Although Hu's itinerary will include opportunities for China to refute accusations that its interests in Africa are reminiscent of colonial behavior, his trip is expected to be mostly about closing deals and making friends, consistent with previous Chinese visits to Africa.

 

Chinese President Hu Jintao will tour eight African countries beginning Jan. 30. Although Hu will take the opportunity to challenge criticisms that China's behavior in Africa resembles colonialism, deal-making is expected to dominate Hu's African agenda. Like other Chinese officials' recent visits to Africa, Hu's tour will focus on securing relations that strengthen its economic interests, with commodity and timber access leading the way.

Hu begins his tour in Cameroon on Jan. 30 and will continue to Liberia, Sudan, Zambia, Namibia, South Africa and Mozambique before concluding his visit Feb. 10 in Seychelles. The list of countries in Hu's itinerary reveals a twofold purpose. One reason for his visit is diplomacy. Hu wants to demonstrate that China, which has a developing country economic status, holds mutual interests with African countries and therefore should have closer diplomatic ties with those countries. Furthermore, Hu will use his visit to South Africa, which now holds a two-year rotating seat on the U.N. Security Council (UNSC), to offer a rebuttal to South African President Thabo Mbeki, who warned Dec. 14 that China's expansion into Africa could turn China into a neocolonial power and make Africa a mere exporter of raw materials. Similarly, during Hu's visit to Sudan he is expected to bring diplomatic pressure to bear on Khartoum to resolve the humanitarian crisis in Darfur. Hu will not apply enough pressure to endanger Beijing's significant investments in Sudan's oil fields -- which generate 5 percent of China's import demand -- even though Beijing could wield significant leverage as the purchaser of almost two-thirds of Sudan's oil exports.

The second reason for Hu's visit is economic. In spite of these diplomatic initiatives, commercial interests will continue to drive Beijing's behavior in Africa. Hu's visit -- his second in as many years -- is merely a continuation of senior-level Chinese visits to Africa. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao toured through seven resource-rich African countries in June 2006. Hu is coming with $3 billion to spend -- money that Beijing pledged in November 2006 during the China-Africa Summit.

Hu's visits to Liberia, Cameroon and Mozambique are to secure reliable access to those country's considerable timber resources. China is the world's largest importer of forest products and relies heavily on these three African countries for timber to use in China's furniture manufacturing and plywood industries. China had taken a three-year hiatus from purchasing timber from Liberia, after the UNSC in 2003 put an embargo on Liberian timber to prevent former President Charles Taylor from using revenues from the industry to finance his war for control of his country. However, Liberia is now under the stable leadership of President Ellen Sirleaf Johnson.

Hu's visit to Zambia is to secure continued access to that country's copper resources. China, which got caught up in a diplomatic spat during Zambia's recent
presidential elections, gets more than 40 percent of its copper from Africa, and Zambia is Africa's leading copper producer. Furthermore, Hu's visit will aim to reassure Zambians, whose political opposition criticized Chinese investors during the presidential elections, that China is a reliable friend and economic partner.

China is also interested in financing infrastructure improvements in African countries. Liberia recently announced plans to develop the port of Buchanan, and Mozambique is looking to develop ports in Beira and Nacala. Financing the development of these ports would facilitate the export of timber and other commodities that are crucial to China's continued economic growth. Improved road, rail and port infrastructure in Mozambique also aids the supply of goods to and from landlocked Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi.

Though Hu will visit Africa to demonstrate that Beijing holds common interests with African countries, core commercial interests will drive his agenda during his eight-nation tour -- a tour that is consistent in Beijing's practice of securing friendly relations with crucial economic allies.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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