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06/01/2005 | Iran - Rice: 'If negotiations have been exhausted, we have the votes'

Stratfor Staff

The United States on Jan. 5 warned Iran that, should it resume nuclear-fuel-related activities, Washington would immediately move to refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council.

 

While Washington's warning substantively contains nothing new, the warning's timing is interesting, given that it follows Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's incapacitation by a stroke. The warning's timing reveals that the Bush administration is moving quickly to prevent Iran from trying to take advantage of Israel's domestic political flux created by Sharon's abrupt departure from power.

Analysis

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice threatened Jan. 5 to bring Iran before the U.N. Security Council if Tehran should follow through on its Jan. 3 announcement that it will resume research towards completing the nuclear fuel cycle. Rice said, "They shouldn't do it because it would really be a sign that they are not prepared to actually make diplomacy work." She went on to say that, "In terms of the next phase, if negotiations have been exhausted, we have the votes, there is a resolution sitting there on the Security Council, we'll vote it."

On their own, Rice's comments represent nothing more than a reiteration of a long-standing Bush administration position that if diplomacy fails to stop Iran from seeking the technology to produce nuclear weapons, Washington would haul the Islamic republic before the U.N. Security Council. That Rice's comments came less than 24 hours after a stroke incapacitated Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, roiling Israel's political landscape, indicates that the United States is moving to pre-empt any party -- and particularly Iran -- from exploiting Sharon's health crisis for its own geopolitical advantage.

Thus far, Tehran has not made any public moves in the wake of Sharon's incapacitation, and is likely watching the situation closely for openings that might work to its advantage and allow it to further its agenda on the nuclear issue. The clerical regime's consistent bellicose behavior toward Israel, even prior to Sharon's illness, shows its confidence in its immunity to attempts by the Jewish state to fulfill its threat to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

For its part, the United States has never actually wanted Israel to strike at Iran's nuclear sites, but the Israeli threat served Washington as a bargaining chip in its back-channel negotiations with Tehran. And now that Tel Aviv has become preoccupied with its own domestic situation, in which Israel's three major political forces are jockeying for power, the United States does not want Iran to feel at ease.

In the days ahead, the Bush administration quite possibly will not only increase its rhetoric regarding hauling the Iran's Islamist regime before the Security Council, but also will begin high-profile military maneuvers to signal Iran that it is not off the hook -- and hence should avoid any risky moves.

This course of action would allow the Bush administration to sustain its pressure on Tehran as the latter begins talks Jan. 7 with Russia over a proposal aimed at defusing tensions on the issue of uranium enrichment, and before a resumption of talks with the EU-3 (Britain, France and Germany).

The ratcheting of rhetoric on both sides matches a pattern of U.S. and Iranian actions over the nuclear issue, despite the current unique circumstances. Tehran is officially set to begin negotiations Jan. 7 on the Russian proposal to aid in its enrichment activities, and wants to present a resolute stance in driving its nuclear agenda to stake its bargaining position. Though Tehran may not expect much from these talks, and will be unlikely to yield on enrichment rights while it still can use Iraq as a bargaining chip, it needs to string Moscow along -- as it has with the Europeans -- to buy time and show that it is cooperating at some level despite what appear to be ultraconservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's crazy diatribes.

Given the unstable situation in Iraq, and the new similar situation in the Israeli-Palestinian theater, the United States wants to avoid confrontation with Iran. Nevertheless, Washington will act to keep Iran off balance.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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