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06/07/2006 | BOLIVIA - A Highland Constitution and Lowland Discontent

Stratfor Staff

Bolivian voters elected a constitutional assembly and voted in a referendum for increased provincial autonomy for Bolivia's states July 2.

 

The vote resulted in a mixed outcome for President Evo Morales. Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party won a strong majority in the constitutional assembly election. At the same time, the autonomy referendum passed overwhelmingly in four of nine states. If Morales and MAS succeed in revamping the Bolivian Constitution in favor of poor indigenous states, Bolivia's wealthier states could escalate their current demands for autonomy to a push for secession.

Bolivian citizens voted July 2 in a constitutional assembly election and a referendum for increased state autonomy. The Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party of Bolivian President Evo Morales won a strong, though not absolute, majority in the constitutional assembly election, while the referendum calling for increased financial and executive powers to be granted to states passed overwhelmingly in four of nine states.

The outcome represents a mixed result for Morales and MAS, and illustrates the growing rift between Bolivia's poorer, indigenous highlands and its more prosperous lowlands. And this rift could widen into a secession movement by Bolivia's lowland states were Morales to use his majority in the constitutional assembly to push through a constitution favoring the highland states.

The assembly win was critical for Morales' goal of redrafting the Bolivian Constitution. Long sought by the indigenous movement that has kept Morales in power, the constitutional assembly is expected to produce a new charter favoring the indigenous highlanders at the expense of the largely European lowlanders, who comprise a minority in Bolivia as a whole. Though MAS did claim a commanding 60 percent of the constitutional assembly's seats, the party fell short of the required two-thirds majority needed to exercise absolute control of the constitutional revision process -- and even shorter of the 80 percent majority Morales hoped for
. Because Morales does not have an absolute majority, he cannot push an agenda that solely favors the highlands, and will need to find a compromise satisfying both highland and lowland demands.

Despite Morales and MAS' assembly win, the autonomy referendum gave warning that a new constitution will not solve all of Bolivia's troubles -- and will even exacerbate the existing lowland-highland split. The four states in which the referendum passed are all resource-rich lowland states. Two of these, Santa Cruz and Tarija departments, possess tremendous natural gas reserves, while the others, Beni and Pando, abound in timber and other natural resources. Though Morales campaigned feverishly against the referendum, he has promised continue discussing of lowland autonomy issues.

Since Morales took office in January, he has made no secret of his desire to shift power from the wealthy lowlands to the impoverished highlands. Some of his first moves to redistribute the lowland's political influence to the highlands include the nationalization of the natural gas industry and land handouts to the destitute indigenous population. These moves, which Morales is likely to expand upon, have been met with anger and protest throughout the lowlands -- particularly in Santa Cruz.

Santa Cruz department, which possesses a large share of Bolivia's natural gas resources and produces approximately one-third of Bolivia's wealth, has been deeply affected by Morales' land grabs and natural gas nationalization. Roughly 150,000 people attended a June 28 pro-autonomy rally in the state. Though Santa Cruz leaders say they only seek improved wealth- and tax-revenue-management, signals indicate the state could seek to secede if it is not granted more autonomy.

Though Morales is celebrating his decisive win in the constitutional assembly election, Bolivia's future remains uncertain. Bolivia is already the poorest nation in South America -- one that since its independence has lost its coastline to Chile and part of its southwestern flank to Paraguay. Without the lowlands, it will be even poorer -- leaving Morales unable to sustain a viable nation, let alone government.

To escape from his difficult position, Morales will need to appease the lowland states, but any such concessions will not be well-received by Morales' supporters. Morales must keep his promise to discuss these issues via the constitutional assembly and offer these lowland departments some increased measure of autonomy, since revamping the constitution without considering the demands of the lowlands could leave secession as the only vehicle for Santa Cruz and its counterparts to realize their aspirations.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 21 to 30 of 1698 )
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