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06/07/2006 | BOLIVIA - A Highland Constitution and Lowland Discontent

Stratfor Staff

Bolivian voters elected a constitutional assembly and voted in a referendum for increased provincial autonomy for Bolivia's states July 2.

The vote resulted in a mixed outcome for President Evo Morales. Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party won a strong majority in the constitutional assembly election. At the same time, the autonomy referendum passed overwhelmingly in four of nine states. If Morales and MAS succeed in revamping the Bolivian Constitution in favor of poor indigenous states, Bolivia's wealthier states could escalate their current demands for autonomy to a push for secession.

Bolivian citizens voted July 2 in a constitutional assembly election and a referendum for increased state autonomy. The Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party of Bolivian President Evo Morales won a strong, though not absolute, majority in the constitutional assembly election, while the referendum calling for increased financial and executive powers to be granted to states passed overwhelmingly in four of nine states.

The outcome represents a mixed result for Morales and MAS, and illustrates the growing rift between Bolivia's poorer, indigenous highlands and its more prosperous lowlands. And this rift could widen into a secession movement by Bolivia's lowland states were Morales to use his majority in the constitutional assembly to push through a constitution favoring the highland states.

The assembly win was critical for Morales' goal of redrafting the Bolivian Constitution. Long sought by the indigenous movement that has kept Morales in power, the constitutional assembly is expected to produce a new charter favoring the indigenous highlanders at the expense of the largely European lowlanders, who comprise a minority in Bolivia as a whole. Though MAS did claim a commanding 60 percent of the constitutional assembly's seats, the party fell short of the required two-thirds majority needed to exercise absolute control of the constitutional revision process -- and even shorter of the 80 percent majority Morales hoped for. Because Morales does not have an absolute majority, he cannot push an agenda that solely favors the highlands, and will need to find a compromise satisfying both highland and lowland demands.

Despite Morales and MAS' assembly win, the autonomy referendum gave warning that a new constitution will not solve all of Bolivia's troubles -- and will even exacerbate the existing lowland-highland split. The four states in which the referendum passed are all resource-rich lowland states. Two of these, Santa Cruz and Tarija departments, possess tremendous natural gas reserves, while the others, Beni and Pando, abound in timber and other natural resources. Though Morales campaigned feverishly against the referendum, he has promised continue discussing of lowland autonomy issues.

Since Morales took office in January, he has made no secret of his desire to shift power from the wealthy lowlands to the impoverished highlands. Some of his first moves to redistribute the lowland's political influence to the highlands include the nationalization of the natural gas industry and land handouts to the destitute indigenous population. These moves, which Morales is likely to expand upon, have been met with anger and protest throughout the lowlands -- particularly in Santa Cruz.

Santa Cruz department, which possesses a large share of Bolivia's natural gas resources and produces approximately one-third of Bolivia's wealth, has been deeply affected by Morales' land grabs and natural gas nationalization. Roughly 150,000 people attended a June 28 pro-autonomy rally in the state. Though Santa Cruz leaders say they only seek improved wealth- and tax-revenue-management, signals indicate the state could seek to secede if it is not granted more autonomy.

Though Morales is celebrating his decisive win in the constitutional assembly election, Bolivia's future remains uncertain. Bolivia is already the poorest nation in South America -- one that since its independence has lost its coastline to Chile and part of its southwestern flank to Paraguay. Without the lowlands, it will be even poorer -- leaving Morales unable to sustain a viable nation, let alone government.

To escape from his difficult position, Morales will need to appease the lowland states, but any such concessions will not be well-received by Morales' supporters. Morales must keep his promise to discuss these issues via the constitutional assembly and offer these lowland departments some increased measure of autonomy, since revamping the constitution without considering the demands of the lowlands could leave secession as the only vehicle for Santa Cruz and its counterparts to realize their aspirations.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 1691 to 1698 of 1698 )

fecha	titulo
08/03/2005	Bolivia: Chronicle of a Presidential Resignation
08/03/2005	Bolivia: Chronicle of a Presidential Resignation
23/01/2005	Bolivia: Santa Cruz no cede en autonomía de facto
23/01/2005	Bolivia: Santa Cruz no cede en autonomía de facto
21/01/2005	Municipales en Bolivia: ¿Opción por la autonomía?
21/01/2005	Municipales en Bolivia: ¿Opción por la autonomía?
06/01/2005	Country Report: Bolivia (Energy) - PDF
06/01/2005	Country Report: Bolivia (Energy) - PDF

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23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part I
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part I
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part II
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part II
10/01/2007\|	China: Exploiting the Uighur 'Terrorist Camp' Raid
10/01/2007\|	China: Exploiting the Uighur 'Terrorist Camp' Raid
03/01/2007\|	China: Aftershocks from the Crash
30/12/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/12/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/12/2006\|	Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
30/12/2006\|	Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
30/12/2006\|	Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
30/12/2006\|	Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
23/12/2006\|	Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
23/12/2006\|	Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
23/12/2006\|	Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
16/12/2006\|	A Saudi Power Struggle?
16/12/2006\|	A Saudi Power Struggle?
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
17/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief- What the Gazprom - ENI Deal Does -- and Does Not -- Mean
16/11/2006\|	Industry's New Stake in Kyoto
14/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Al Qaeda and the Airport Threat
13/11/2006\|	INDIA - The Abduction of a High-Tech Executive's Son
11/11/2006\|	CHINA - Blocking Investment to Promote Stability
11/11/2006\|	U.S., Russia: The Politics Behind the WTO Talks
11/11/2006\|	Colombia's Multifaceted Security Problem
08/11/2006\|	MEXICO - Jumping on the Oaxaca Bandwagon
07/11/2006\|	Mexico City Bombings: An Escalation in Tensions
07/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief
04/11/2006\|	AUSTRIA - The Kidnapping Plot Against a Crystal Heiress
04/11/2006\|	Iraq Without Bechtel
01/11/2006\|	Europe: The Taliban's Broadening Scope
31/10/2006\|	HONDURAS-Honduras' Operation Thunder: The Effort to Stem Rising Crime
31/10/2006\|	MEXICO - A Mexican Standoff Worsens
31/10/2006\|	BOLIVIA - BRAZIL: La Paz's Natural Gas Dilemma
28/10/2006\|	BRAZIL-Strength in Victory, Weakness in Office
28/10/2006\|	BANGLADESH - Conditions Conducive to a Coup?
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ - The Coming Change in U.S. Strategy
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ- Big Plans, Major Obstacles, for the Oil Sector
24/10/2006\|	Somalia's Islamists Court Mainstream Muslims
24/10/2006\|	SUDAN-Khartoum Moves Against Foreign Intervention in Darfur
21/10/2006\|	Japan's Nuclear Message for China
21/10/2006\|	U.S.: Al Qaeda and the U.S. Midterm Elections
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 1
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 2 - South Asia: Still Feeling the 'Washington Effect'
18/10/2006\|	The EU Scrambles for a Russia Policy
18/10/2006\|	Chemical Risk: Mass Storage and Transport as Weapons, Not Targets
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Sunset for Shtokman?
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA, BULGARIA, GREECE- The Pipe Dream Pipeline
14/10/2006\|	IRELAND -The Latest 'Tiger Kidnapping' Trend
14/10/2006\|	CHINA - Using Unions To Access Company Records
14/10/2006\|	PAKISTAN - Rockets, Coup Rumors and Musharraf
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Americans as Targets of Ultranationalist Street Gangs
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin's Hands-On Energy Policy
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin Puts LUKoil Under Pressure
07/10/2006\|	North Korea: Beijing's Diminishing Power of Persuasion
05/10/2006\|	Nigeria: The Threat Against Bonny Island
05/10/2006\|	Kuwait: Moving to Become an Oil Market-Mover?
05/10/2006\|	Dirty Bombs: Weapons of Mass Disruption
29/09/2006\|	SOMALIA - Ethiopia's Islamist Fears
28/09/2006\|	IRAN, RUSIA - A Nuclear Marriage of Convenience
27/09/2006\|	MEXICO - Passing the Oaxacan Buck
27/09/2006\|	Hezbollah's Iranian Connection
27/09/2006\|	SOUTH KOREA - Rethinking its Military Future
24/09/2006\|	THAILAND - A Possible Respite in Southern Violence
23/09/2006\|	BOLIVIA - Military Bases in the Lowlands
23/09/2006\|	KENYA - Corruption as Catalyst for Crime
23/09/2006\|	The World Bank at a Crossroads
30/08/2006\|	SRI LANKA- Strategic Potential on Hold
30/08/2006\|	A Polite Meeting About Missiles
27/08/2006\|	EU: Energy Security and the Nuclear Genie
02/08/2006\|	SOMALIA - Islamists and Clan Politics
02/08/2006\|	CUBA - A New Castro Assumes the Old Power
30/07/2006\|	AFRICA - Toward a Three-Way Conflict in the Horn of Africa
30/07/2006\|	U.S., India: Hammering Out a Nuclear Deal
28/07/2006\|	Chavez's World Tour
28/07/2006\|	Perception and Reality in the Oil Market
23/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Acapulco as a Main Front in the Drug Wars
19/07/2006\|	IRAN - Using the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict Advantageously
15/07/2006\|	The Economic Impact of an Israeli-Lebanese War
14/07/2006\|	Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder
06/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Facing Its Greatest Democratic Test
06/07/2006\|	USA-The GOP Challenge: Retaining Religious Voters
06/07/2006\|	SLOVAKIA - An Unlikely Coalition
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
05/06/2006\|	Key Steps to Avoid Falling Victim to Crime
04/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Acquiring -- and Practicing -- the Necessary Skills (Part III)
03/06/2006\|	Cosmetic Change in China's Economy
02/06/2006\|	Mexico: Of Soccer and Electoral Strategy
02/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Analysis and Planning II
01/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Assessing Threats and Vulnerabilities
01/06/2006\|	U.S. Perceptions of a Chinese Threat
31/05/2006\|	Bicycles: Another Lethal Weapon in the Militant Arsenal
29/05/2006\|	Peru, Colombia: Elections and Second Thoughts on Populism
28/05/2006\|	Kaibiles: The New Lethal Force in the Mexican Drug Wars
23/05/2006\|	The U.S. Immigration Debate's Fallout in Mexico
17/05/2006\|	EU, Latin America: Summit, Or Pique?
17/05/2006\|	Brazil: When Violence Reaches a Tipping Point
13/05/2006\|	Beheadings in Mexico: The Foreign Element in Mexico's Drug Wars
07/05/2006\|	Diplomatic Snubs and Sino-U.S. Relations
07/05/2006\|	Bolivia's Energy Nationalization: Opting for Short-Term Gains
06/05/2006\|	China, Russia, U.S.: Washington's Strategic Insults
06/05/2006\|	U.S.: CIA Director Porter Goss' Resignation
04/05/2006\|	No Relief at the Gas Pumps
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia: Nationalized Oil and Gas
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia and Leftward Movement in Latin America
30/04/2006\|	COLOMBIA- A Slaying Threatens the President's Re-Election
25/04/2006\|	Repsol in Bolivia: When Business Serves Foreign Policy
24/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
24/04/2006\|	Al Qaeda's New Focus on Sudan
23/04/2006\|	Russia: Pipeline Monopolies Stymie Infrastructure Improvement
23/04/2006\|	Iraq: Jaafari Steps Aside -- Not Down
21/04/2006\|	Bush, Hu and the 'Accidental' Journalist
21/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
21/04/2006\|	The Pakistan-Jihadist Connection
18/04/2006\|	PNA: Hamas' Message in the Tel Aviv Attack
18/04/2006\|	Russia: The Centralization Trend Continues
18/04/2006\|	Countdown to a Coup in Nepal?
18/04/2006\|	Vietnam: The Party Congress Tackles Corruption
17/04/2006\|	India, Venezuela: Caracas Diversifies its Oil Markets
13/04/2006\|	North Korea: Weighing the Benefits of the Nuclear Card
13/04/2006\|	Idealism, Realism and U.S. Foreign Policy
10/04/2006\|	The Saudi Militant Threat in Israel and the Palestinian Territories
08/04/2006\|	Political Instability in Europe's Core
06/04/2006\|	Ukraine: An Orange Reunion?
06/04/2006\|	Italy's Attraction for Islamist Militants
05/04/2006\|	Venezuela's Oil Dreams
30/03/2006\|	RUSSIA: WTO Accession Still Not a Done Deal -- From Any Point of View
28/03/2006\|	ITALY - Running the Electoral Numbers
28/03/2006\|	Thailand's Political Unrest: The Significance for Multinationals
27/03/2006\|	BRAZIL- Continuity at the Finance Ministry
24/03/2006\|	CHINA-Pumping an Iranian LNG Deal for Oil
24/03/2006\|	Residential Security - PDF
24/03/2006\|	CORRUPTION-Execution in China: Sending a Message to Big Business
24/03/2006\|	SPAIN- ETA's Cease-Fire and its Search for Viability
24/03/2006\|	GERMANY -The German Weapons - Smuggling Scandal: Opportunities for Merkel
24/03/2006\|	IRAN - Reading Between the Lines of Khamenei's Blessing
22/03/2006\|	The Unlikely Terrorist Threat Against U.S. Agriculture
22/03/2006\|	INDONESIA- Violent Protests: A Message to Multinationals?
20/02/2006\|	INDONESIA-Yudhoyono's Plan for Indonesia's Resurrection
20/02/2006\|	Nigeria - Same News, Different Network
18/02/2006\|	India: Hopes for Nuclear -- and Geopolitical -- Power
11/02/2006\|	India: King Abdullah Gets the Royal Treatment
11/02/2006\|	Drugs, Weapons and Violence: The U.S.-Mexican Border's Hot Commodities
11/02/2006\|	Mexico, U.S.: Election-Year Rhetoric on Both Sides of the Border
07/02/2006\|	China's Motive in Oil Deals with India
26/01/2006\|	The Bin Laden Tape and the Strike in Damadola
25/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near-Great Powers -- Part II
22/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near -Great Powers -- Part I
19/01/2006\|	EU: Austria's Presidential Problem
19/01/2006\|	Taiwan: Chen Risks China's Ire to Visit Gadhafi
14/01/2006\|	Thailand and the Possible Terrorist Threat to Tourists
14/01/2006\|	Travel Security: The Importance of Understanding the Risks
12/01/2006\|	Iran's latest nuclear provocation : the resumption of nuclear fuel
12/01/2006\|	Arms Market: Accident or careful planning?
06/01/2006\|	Russian gas: This is not all about Moscow -- Germany has a stake as well
20/12/2005\|	Evo Morales won Bolivia's presidential elections Dec.18: Morales Signals Left, Turns Right
01/08/2005\|	Argentina: Kirchner's Populism and a Darkening Economic Future
06/01/2005\|	Iran - Rice: 'If negotiations have been exhausted, we have the votes'

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Peoples of the Earth | Martin E. Andersen

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