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07/02/2007 | China: Reining in the Regions With Environmentalism

Stratfor Staff

Recent government announcements indicate China will significantly step up its efforts to rein in small unregulated energy utilities. On Jan. 23, Beijing said it would consolidate ownership of the nation's coal plants into six or eight entities.

 

This was followed Jan. 31 by an announcement of new rules governing small generating operations that deal with coal-fired power plant construction. These moves represent part of Beijing's larger drive to enhance its economic control over local and regional governments.

 Recent government announcements indicate China will significantly step up its efforts to rein in small unregulated energy utilities. On Jan. 23, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced it will consolidate ownership of the nation's coal plants into six or eight entities. It added that it will boost production of higher-quality, lower-sulfur coal and will cap the amount of coal used by the power-generation industry in 2010. Subsequently, the NDRC announced new rules Jan. 31 that relate to coal-fired power plant construction, limiting the growth of small coal-fired generating operations.

The agency said decommissioning older, smaller plants in favor of larger, more efficient and environmentally friendly plants will decrease environmental damage and worker injuries and deaths. But Beijing's main motivation in shutting down small unregulated energy utilities is to punish uncooperative local officials -- thereby furthering the central government's drive to increase economic control over local and regional governments.

The rules effectively force companies to decommission older power plants as a precondition for building new generating facilities, and will force small plants out of business altogether. NDRC said utilities must eliminate 240 megawatts (MW) of capacity before they will be allowed to construct new 300 MW power stations. It added that by 2010 it will shut down all coal plants with less than 100 MW in capacity that have operated for more than 20 years.

One-fifth of all power plants in China are illegal, according to official estimates. Such small plants are the most prone to work-related accidents and environmental problems. This has helped spur rising discontent and increased protests in many of the rural areas where such coal plants operate.

China's local governments and utilities currently build one coal-fired power plant per week. Many of these are small hastily built plants that often are beholden only to regional and local governments -- not to Beijing. Typically, such new plants do not meet national environmental and efficiency standards. Local leaders protect these polluting plants, however, because of the tax revenue and quick employment they bring.

Pollution is perhaps the most obvious side effect of unregulated small coal enterprises. China's State Environmental Protection Administration estimates that pollution cost China roughly 3 percent of gross domestic product in 2004. It also claims that in 2006 there were a record-setting 161 significant environmental accidents in China, and that official pollution complaints reached an all-time high, rising 30 percent to 600,000. China says it can improve this environmental record by closing down small coal-fired plants.

Beijing's efforts to crack down on small coal-fired plants appear genuine. Earlier in 2007, China's environmental regulator announced it would not approve new projects from four major power groups until the groups addressed existing pollution violations. It denied new plant construction permits to Datang International Power Generation Co. and Huadian Power International Corp. for failing to shut down some of their generators when requested to do so by the state. It also denied new construction permits to Huaneng Power International and Guodian Power Development Co. for failing to install sulfur-removing devices. Huaneng responded by pledging to increase anti-pollution installations in many of its facilities and to halt operations at two small plants found in violation of environmental regulations.

Chinese environmental mandates, however, often are a facade for cracking down on local officials who are ignoring Beijing's planning regulations. While pollution concerns Beijing, other issues take priority
, such as exerting more control over local economies and officials. National security and the economy trump environmental concerns, for example.

The clamp down on small plants in the name of environmental protection is part of a larger strategic goal of recentralizing Beijing's control over the nation. Beijing gave local officials greater control of economic matters in the 1970s as China promoted economic decentralization. This spurred growth, but ultimately led to increased corruption and a lack of oversight. Beijing now is making a concerted effort to reverse this trend, and a key component of the second phase of China's current five-year plan is to increase control over foreign investments and cool the economy. Premier Wen Jiabao warned local officials during a State Council meeting in 2006 that Beijing would not tolerate any divergence from central macroeconomic policies.

As China closes down small utilities and seeks to increase regulatory enforcement and cap coal production at 2.6 billion tons annually by 2010, it is unlikely to experience immediate energy shortages. In 2006, 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity came online, and more than 70 GW is expected this year. Moreover, there is much room for relatively easy improvements in energy efficiency. In anticipation of China's expected doubling of energy consumption by 2020, the government has increased energy efficiency measures. It also has promoted renewable energy sources, such as hydroelectric and wind power, and invested in nuclear energy. China plans to build 30 new nuclear plants by 2020, and is investing in a safer new generation of pebble-bed nuclear reactors.

Nevertheless, coal will remain China's dominant energy source for a long time to come. Coal plants furnish almost 80 percent of China's power generation because coal is the most abundant, and by far the cheapest, energy source in the country. Faced with rising worldwide demand for oil, China is promoting coal technologies aimed at boosting domestic production in order to replace energy imports. The government has sponsored significant research into coal gasification and coal-to-liquids technology, both of which can produce cleaner-burning fuel and lead to reduced oil imports. The majority of China's current coal research, however, is based on direct liquefaction, a process that fails to remove most pollutants from the fuel. This indicates that Beijing ultimately prioritizes economic development over environmental health.

NDRC's recent announcements indicate that China seeks to form more large state-owned coal companies similar to the Shenhua Group Corp., China's largest coal firm. Shenhua plans to create the country's first coal-to-fuel plant in 2007 and to operate up to eight liquefaction plants by 2020. If Shenhua can meet these goals, it might be able to replace up to 10 percent of China's projected oil imports.

Punishing companies and corrupt officials for ignoring national regulations is one of the easiest political methods of achieving Beijing's recentralization goal. Targeting corrupt officials responsible for runaway growth in unregulated coal plants on environmental grounds allows the national government to portray itself domestically and internationally as cracking down on local government abuse. The policy also demonstrates to the rural population that something is being done about the hazardous working conditions and death rates suffered by the poor -- all the while allowing Beijing to gain greater control over its wayward local and regional governments.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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