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07/10/2006 | North Korea: Beijing's Diminishing Power of Persuasion

Stratfor Staff

As rumors of an imminent North Korean nuclear test continue to swirl, all eyes are turning once again to China to see if Beijing can or will intervene to dissuade Pyongyang from proceeding with a test.

Though Beijing remains North Korea's single-largest supplier of food and energy, its influence over Pyongyang is not as strong as it once was -- or as the United States and others might perceive.

Chinese-North Korean relations have waned considerably over the past few months, and Beijing is finding it increasingly difficult to restrain its neighbor. For its part, North Korea has been losing faith in China as Beijing strengthens ties with the United States. Beijing supported U.S.-led sanctions on North Korean banking in Macau and elsewhere in China. Beijing also backed a U.N. Security Council (UNSC) statement condemning North Korea's July missile tests -- a much stronger U.N. step than the minor document of concern the UNSC released following North Korea's 1998 tests.

These worsening bilateral relations have become increasingly public. Before its July missile tests, for example, Pyongyang simply refused to allow high-ranking Chinese officials to visit North Korea. Pyongyang knew in advance the message the Chinese would deliver, and had little interest in listening. Though it initially appeared that China at least gave the nod to -- if not encouraged -- the North Korean missile tests, Beijing vehemently rejected that interpretation. Significantly, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao condemned North Korea's tests from Seoul, rather than Beijing, signaling Pyongyang that China was more interested in its ties with South Korea than with North Korea.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il also refused a Chinese summons to go to Beijing -- a visit that could have shaped Pyongyang's calculations surrounding a nuclear test. Pyongyang sees Chinese actions as unreliable, and increasingly hostile, with regard to North Korean interests. And if China will not backstop North Korea in the face of a perceived U.S. threat, North Korea must prove its own capabilities. Pyongyang saw U.S. actions in the Gulf War, Kosovo conflict and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and in each case, Washington did not perceive a nuclear threat. But Washington has not exercised such a free hand with China or Russia, both of which are nuclear powers. So Pyongyang has now made its desire to test a nuclear weapon public -- a step from which it cannot easily back away.

North Korea, however, does not want to risk inviting a war with the United States by carrying out a test. Instead, Pyongyang hopes this final threat will convince the United States to lift the banking sanctions. Unlike other sanctions on North Korea, which hurt the country as a whole, the banking sanctions have hurt the government -- and hence Pyongyang's adamant position that the sanctions be lifted before any further negotiations take place. (Washington, on the other hand, likes the banking sanctions for the same reason North Korea hates them.) China and South Korea are trying to convince Washington to lighten up on the banking sanctions, and Beijing is continuing to warn North Korea against testing.

But China fears its own efforts ultimately will fail. Beijing deployed a new ambassador to North Korea, an expert on American affairs, to assist the North Koreans in better understanding U.S. reactions to North Korean moves. Soon thereafter, North Korea announced the imminent test anyway.

China's strongest lever when dealing with North Korea is the economic and fuel assistance it provides. Beijing fears a refugee crisis, however, if the North is completely cut off. By some accounts, China has already strengthened its defensive forces along the Korean border to prevent any potential exodus from North Korea.

Beijing has relied before on inducements for North Korea to return to the fold. However, the North Koreans deem anything short of a change in the banking restrictions unacceptable. China wants a stable region, particularly ahead of the 2008 Olympics, and a North Korean nuclear test will not help fulfill that wish. But neither would cutting off food and fuel to North Korea as the region's frigid winters approach. Beijing feels it has few other choices, though, with North Korea rejecting high-level visits and not sending its high-level officials to China just to hear Beijing berate North Korean for its actions.

At present, China is offering continued cooperation with the United States coupled with inducements for North Korea to change its mind. Beijing's main threat to Pyongyang is that, should North Korea test and the U.S. respond militarily, China will not intervene on the north's behalf. This would only be a useful tool if Pyongyang really thought Washington would respond militarily, and in North Korea, the answer to that question is still up in the air. Ultimately, while China and the United States both want to see North Korea step back from the brink, Beijing's leverage is limited unless it wants to risk a more immediate problem with its neighbor.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

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25/01/2007\|	Ecuador: A Midair Collision and Correa's Balancing Act
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part I
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part I
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part II
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part II
10/01/2007\|	China: Exploiting the Uighur 'Terrorist Camp' Raid
10/01/2007\|	China: Exploiting the Uighur 'Terrorist Camp' Raid
03/01/2007\|	China: Aftershocks from the Crash
30/12/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/12/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/12/2006\|	Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
30/12/2006\|	Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
30/12/2006\|	Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
30/12/2006\|	Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
23/12/2006\|	Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
23/12/2006\|	Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
23/12/2006\|	Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
16/12/2006\|	A Saudi Power Struggle?
16/12/2006\|	A Saudi Power Struggle?
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
17/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief- What the Gazprom - ENI Deal Does -- and Does Not -- Mean
16/11/2006\|	Industry's New Stake in Kyoto
14/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Al Qaeda and the Airport Threat
13/11/2006\|	INDIA - The Abduction of a High-Tech Executive's Son
11/11/2006\|	Colombia's Multifaceted Security Problem
11/11/2006\|	U.S., Russia: The Politics Behind the WTO Talks
11/11/2006\|	CHINA - Blocking Investment to Promote Stability
08/11/2006\|	MEXICO - Jumping on the Oaxaca Bandwagon
07/11/2006\|	Mexico City Bombings: An Escalation in Tensions
07/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief
04/11/2006\|	Iraq Without Bechtel
04/11/2006\|	AUSTRIA - The Kidnapping Plot Against a Crystal Heiress
01/11/2006\|	Europe: The Taliban's Broadening Scope
31/10/2006\|	BOLIVIA - BRAZIL: La Paz's Natural Gas Dilemma
31/10/2006\|	MEXICO - A Mexican Standoff Worsens
31/10/2006\|	HONDURAS-Honduras' Operation Thunder: The Effort to Stem Rising Crime
28/10/2006\|	BANGLADESH - Conditions Conducive to a Coup?
28/10/2006\|	BRAZIL-Strength in Victory, Weakness in Office
24/10/2006\|	SUDAN-Khartoum Moves Against Foreign Intervention in Darfur
24/10/2006\|	Somalia's Islamists Court Mainstream Muslims
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ- Big Plans, Major Obstacles, for the Oil Sector
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ - The Coming Change in U.S. Strategy
21/10/2006\|	U.S.: Al Qaeda and the U.S. Midterm Elections
21/10/2006\|	Japan's Nuclear Message for China
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 1
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 2 - South Asia: Still Feeling the 'Washington Effect'
18/10/2006\|	The EU Scrambles for a Russia Policy
18/10/2006\|	Chemical Risk: Mass Storage and Transport as Weapons, Not Targets
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Sunset for Shtokman?
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA, BULGARIA, GREECE- The Pipe Dream Pipeline
14/10/2006\|	IRELAND -The Latest 'Tiger Kidnapping' Trend
14/10/2006\|	CHINA - Using Unions To Access Company Records
14/10/2006\|	PAKISTAN - Rockets, Coup Rumors and Musharraf
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Americans as Targets of Ultranationalist Street Gangs
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin's Hands-On Energy Policy
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin Puts LUKoil Under Pressure
05/10/2006\|	Dirty Bombs: Weapons of Mass Disruption
05/10/2006\|	Kuwait: Moving to Become an Oil Market-Mover?
05/10/2006\|	Nigeria: The Threat Against Bonny Island
29/09/2006\|	SOMALIA - Ethiopia's Islamist Fears
28/09/2006\|	IRAN, RUSIA - A Nuclear Marriage of Convenience
27/09/2006\|	SOUTH KOREA - Rethinking its Military Future
27/09/2006\|	Hezbollah's Iranian Connection
27/09/2006\|	MEXICO - Passing the Oaxacan Buck
24/09/2006\|	THAILAND - A Possible Respite in Southern Violence
23/09/2006\|	BOLIVIA - Military Bases in the Lowlands
23/09/2006\|	KENYA - Corruption as Catalyst for Crime
23/09/2006\|	The World Bank at a Crossroads
30/08/2006\|	SRI LANKA- Strategic Potential on Hold
30/08/2006\|	A Polite Meeting About Missiles
27/08/2006\|	EU: Energy Security and the Nuclear Genie
02/08/2006\|	CUBA - A New Castro Assumes the Old Power
02/08/2006\|	SOMALIA - Islamists and Clan Politics
30/07/2006\|	AFRICA - Toward a Three-Way Conflict in the Horn of Africa
30/07/2006\|	U.S., India: Hammering Out a Nuclear Deal
28/07/2006\|	Perception and Reality in the Oil Market
28/07/2006\|	Chavez's World Tour
23/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Acapulco as a Main Front in the Drug Wars
19/07/2006\|	IRAN - Using the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict Advantageously
15/07/2006\|	The Economic Impact of an Israeli-Lebanese War
14/07/2006\|	Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder
06/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Facing Its Greatest Democratic Test
06/07/2006\|	BOLIVIA - A Highland Constitution and Lowland Discontent
06/07/2006\|	USA-The GOP Challenge: Retaining Religious Voters
06/07/2006\|	SLOVAKIA - An Unlikely Coalition
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
05/06/2006\|	Key Steps to Avoid Falling Victim to Crime
04/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Acquiring -- and Practicing -- the Necessary Skills (Part III)
03/06/2006\|	Cosmetic Change in China's Economy
02/06/2006\|	Mexico: Of Soccer and Electoral Strategy
02/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Analysis and Planning II
01/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Assessing Threats and Vulnerabilities
01/06/2006\|	U.S. Perceptions of a Chinese Threat
31/05/2006\|	Bicycles: Another Lethal Weapon in the Militant Arsenal
29/05/2006\|	Peru, Colombia: Elections and Second Thoughts on Populism
28/05/2006\|	Kaibiles: The New Lethal Force in the Mexican Drug Wars
23/05/2006\|	The U.S. Immigration Debate's Fallout in Mexico
17/05/2006\|	EU, Latin America: Summit, Or Pique?
17/05/2006\|	Brazil: When Violence Reaches a Tipping Point
13/05/2006\|	Beheadings in Mexico: The Foreign Element in Mexico's Drug Wars
07/05/2006\|	Diplomatic Snubs and Sino-U.S. Relations
07/05/2006\|	Bolivia's Energy Nationalization: Opting for Short-Term Gains
06/05/2006\|	China, Russia, U.S.: Washington's Strategic Insults
06/05/2006\|	U.S.: CIA Director Porter Goss' Resignation
04/05/2006\|	No Relief at the Gas Pumps
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia: Nationalized Oil and Gas
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia and Leftward Movement in Latin America
30/04/2006\|	COLOMBIA- A Slaying Threatens the President's Re-Election
25/04/2006\|	Repsol in Bolivia: When Business Serves Foreign Policy
24/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
24/04/2006\|	Al Qaeda's New Focus on Sudan
23/04/2006\|	Russia: Pipeline Monopolies Stymie Infrastructure Improvement
23/04/2006\|	Iraq: Jaafari Steps Aside -- Not Down
21/04/2006\|	Bush, Hu and the 'Accidental' Journalist
21/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
21/04/2006\|	The Pakistan-Jihadist Connection
18/04/2006\|	PNA: Hamas' Message in the Tel Aviv Attack
18/04/2006\|	Russia: The Centralization Trend Continues
18/04/2006\|	Countdown to a Coup in Nepal?
18/04/2006\|	Vietnam: The Party Congress Tackles Corruption
17/04/2006\|	India, Venezuela: Caracas Diversifies its Oil Markets
13/04/2006\|	North Korea: Weighing the Benefits of the Nuclear Card
13/04/2006\|	Idealism, Realism and U.S. Foreign Policy
10/04/2006\|	The Saudi Militant Threat in Israel and the Palestinian Territories
08/04/2006\|	Political Instability in Europe's Core
06/04/2006\|	Ukraine: An Orange Reunion?
06/04/2006\|	Italy's Attraction for Islamist Militants
05/04/2006\|	Venezuela's Oil Dreams
30/03/2006\|	RUSSIA: WTO Accession Still Not a Done Deal -- From Any Point of View
28/03/2006\|	ITALY - Running the Electoral Numbers
28/03/2006\|	Thailand's Political Unrest: The Significance for Multinationals
27/03/2006\|	BRAZIL- Continuity at the Finance Ministry
24/03/2006\|	CHINA-Pumping an Iranian LNG Deal for Oil
24/03/2006\|	Residential Security - PDF
24/03/2006\|	CORRUPTION-Execution in China: Sending a Message to Big Business
24/03/2006\|	SPAIN- ETA's Cease-Fire and its Search for Viability
24/03/2006\|	GERMANY -The German Weapons - Smuggling Scandal: Opportunities for Merkel
24/03/2006\|	IRAN - Reading Between the Lines of Khamenei's Blessing
22/03/2006\|	The Unlikely Terrorist Threat Against U.S. Agriculture
22/03/2006\|	INDONESIA- Violent Protests: A Message to Multinationals?
20/02/2006\|	INDONESIA-Yudhoyono's Plan for Indonesia's Resurrection
20/02/2006\|	Nigeria - Same News, Different Network
18/02/2006\|	India: Hopes for Nuclear -- and Geopolitical -- Power
11/02/2006\|	India: King Abdullah Gets the Royal Treatment
11/02/2006\|	Drugs, Weapons and Violence: The U.S.-Mexican Border's Hot Commodities
11/02/2006\|	Mexico, U.S.: Election-Year Rhetoric on Both Sides of the Border
07/02/2006\|	China's Motive in Oil Deals with India
26/01/2006\|	The Bin Laden Tape and the Strike in Damadola
25/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near-Great Powers -- Part II
22/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near -Great Powers -- Part I
19/01/2006\|	EU: Austria's Presidential Problem
19/01/2006\|	Taiwan: Chen Risks China's Ire to Visit Gadhafi
14/01/2006\|	Thailand and the Possible Terrorist Threat to Tourists
14/01/2006\|	Travel Security: The Importance of Understanding the Risks
12/01/2006\|	Iran's latest nuclear provocation : the resumption of nuclear fuel
12/01/2006\|	Arms Market: Accident or careful planning?
06/01/2006\|	Russian gas: This is not all about Moscow -- Germany has a stake as well
20/12/2005\|	Evo Morales won Bolivia's presidential elections Dec.18: Morales Signals Left, Turns Right
01/08/2005\|	Argentina: Kirchner's Populism and a Darkening Economic Future
06/01/2005\|	Iran - Rice: 'If negotiations have been exhausted, we have the votes'

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Peoples of the Earth | Martin E. Andersen

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