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23/05/2006 | The U.S. Immigration Debate's Fallout in Mexico

Stratfor Staff

Mexican President Vicente Fox will visit three U.S. states May 23-27, where he will address recent developments on the U.S. debate about immigration. Among these developments are U.S. President George W. Bush's May 15 proposal to deploy National Guard forces along the U.S.-Mexico border and his support for a guest-worker program.

They also include the rekindled debate on border security and immigration reform in the U.S. Senate, which approved measures on both topics during the past week. The U.S. debates on border security and immigration reform resonate as strongly in Mexico as they do in the United States.

Mexican President Vicente Fox will visit Utah, Washington and California, May 23-27. While the visit was planned some time ago, the agenda and talking points of Fox's trip will focus on the past week's developments in the U.S. immigration-reform and border-security debates. Among these developments are U.S. President George W. Bush's May 15 proposal to deploy National Guard forces along the U.S.-Mexico border and his support for a guest-worker program. They also include the rekindled debate on border security and immigration reform in the U.S. Senate, which approved measures on both topics during the past week. The Senate has also voted to build a fence along sections of the U.S. border, to establish English as the official language for government activities and to allow illegal immigrants possible citizenship under certain conditions.

Without doubt, human migration tops the bilateral agenda between the United States and Mexico. Emigration from Mexico to the United States has deep historical and economic roots. It also affects a great number of Mexicans, who increasingly have relatives and friends who have immigrated to the United States, both legally and illegally. Thus, any change in the situation of the Mexican immigrants in the United States has major economic, social and political consequences in Mexico.

As we have previously discussed, immigration to the United States from Mexico is different from immigration to the United States from other countries due to history and geography. And while the flow of people coming from Mexico into the United States has existed for many, many years, these numbers exploded in the last 25 years. Thus, between 1.2 million and 1.5 million Mexicans immigrated to the United States during the 1970s, around 2.3 million did so during the 1980s, and around 3.3 million did so during the 1990s.

During World War II, the United States approached the issue by establishing a guest-worker plan known as the Bracero Program, which lasted until 1964. During its existence, the Bracero Program served as the most significant source of Mexican labor in the United States. After the program ended, with a limited number of visas available, many Mexicans crossed the border without official documentation. Several factors in Mexico prompted this exodus.

The Mexican economy experienced a series of crises in 1976, 1981-82, 1986 and 1994-95, which increased Mexico's relative poverty levels and hindered its economic performance. These crises generated the conditions for the continually increasing rate of Mexicans immigrating to the United States. Most other Latin American countries suffered deep economic crises during the 1970s and 1980s and political instability, yet they did not produce the number of immigrants to the United States that Mexico did. Mexico, by contrast, passed through these economic episodes with little political turmoil and largely pacific power transitions, and even so huge numbers of emigrants went north. Geography and -- more importantly -- economics explain the difference.

Emigration toward the north became one of two very important safety valves for the Mexican economy, one successive Mexican governments used to maintain domestic social and political stability. The other safety valve was the notable increase in the informal sector of the Mexican economy. Emigration was traditionally a safety valve for rural areas while the informal economy served urban centers.

Over the years, however, the number and origin of Mexican immigrants to the United States has evolved. During the 1970s and 1980s, most of the Mexican immigrants to the United States came from Mexico's poorest and more rural states -- the same states most closely linked to the Bracero Program. Since the 1990s, however, that has changed. According to the Mexican Population Council, new immigrants to the United States come from all of Mexico's regions, and their gender and economic background diversity is growing.

Estimates of the number of Mexican immigrants to the United States vary, but hover around 10 million to 11 million people, which includes those of both legal and illegal status -- around 10 percent of the number of people living in Mexico. Estimates also hold that the informal economy in Mexico covers another 10 million to 15 million people. Combined, this means almost a quarter of the Mexican population is either not formally employed or is outside of the country. Starting in 1986, successive Mexican administrations engaged in fundamental economic reforms with the entry of Mexico into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (now the World Trade Organization, or WTO). The nation's economic crises were so deep-seated, however, that even the WTO-inspired reforms have not helped the Mexican economy grow fast enough to provide enough jobs for Mexico's swelling labor force.

Along with previous Mexican governments, the Fox administration has found that using the two aforementioned safety valves has greatly helped maintain social order. Mexico City sees Mexican immigration to the United States as a win-win situation for both countries, since the immigration safety valve means the United States does not have an unstable neighbor to its south.

As the number of Mexican migrants to the United States has increased, so have their money transfers to their families in Mexico. In 2005, Mexican migrants in the United States remitted around $18 billion back to Mexico -- an extremely important source of cash for Mexico, roughly equal to foreign direct investment in the country. The Mexican government clearly does not want these remittances from the United States to disappear.

The Fox administration has established programs to match every dollar received from Mexicans in the United States with money put into projects to improve infrastructure. All of the contenders in Mexico's July 2 presidential election have proposals on how to better use those resources, from improving those matching funds to establishing a structural fund to transfer money to impoverished regions of Mexico, as is done in the European Union. Thus, massive deportations of Mexicans from the United States would have immense economic and political consequences in Mexico.

The Mexican government also needs to walk a fine line between working closely with the United States and not appearing too subservient to Washington. For historical reasons, Mexico has a love-hate relationship with the United States. In the past couple of decades, this relationship has tilted more toward the love part of the equation. The signing of the North American Free Trade Act (NAFTA) in particular shifted the historical equation. In general, Mexicans believe a close relationship with the United States is inevitable, and largely beneficial for both. Even so, they resent any perceived heavy-handed attempts -- or even suggestions -- by the United States to force policy on Mexico. Mexicans expect their government to respond harshly to the United States when needed, as long as those responses are kept on the rhetorical level.

The Fox administration has worked to push for a migration agreement allowing Mexican nationals to cross the border and work freely in the United States on the premise that given geography and economics, the flow north from Mexico cannot be blocked successfully; something similar to what Fox proposed may in fact come to pass. But Fox pushed too hard, and was unable to convince many on the U.S. side that he was fulfilling his part of the job of ensuring border security.

Much of the U.S. resentment against perceptions that Mexico is not adequately securing its side of the border stem from the fact that while the Mexican government allowed its two economic safety valves to develop, it also allowed another development to flourish: drug trafficking and organized crime. This has led to a border security problem of considerable size, one that has accelerated over the past two to three years. Drug cartels operating in the border cities have become more violent, which has in turn fueled the security concerns of people living in the border region. While the Fox administration has tried to fight these cartels, the violence has increased -- thus complicating his efforts to push for immigration reform in the United States.

Whether the new Mexican administration taking office Dec. 1 will be any more effective in fighting the drug cartels than the Fox administration has been remains unknown. Changing public opinion in the United States, however, will require a more effective Mexican response to drug crime on the border.

Whichever political party wins the July 2 Mexican presidential election, the new government's position on border issues will be very similar to the current position. The Mexican government will always oppose the construction of any fence or wall, since most Mexicans deeply resent such a prospect. It will also oppose any attempt to turn illegal immigrants in the United States into felons because of the ill economic effects this would have in Mexico. And it will not follow any U.S. suggestions that it work to stop Mexicans from crossing into the United States, perhaps pointing out that the U.S. government does not prevent its citizens from leaving the United States as they please. What could change is the level of cooperation between the Mexican and U.S. governments.

Before Vicente Fox's arrival, Mexican governments were not as active in advocating for issues that concerned the Mexican community inside the United States. In contrast, Fox has advocated, for example, for the pardon of U.S. death-row inmates of Mexican origin. Nor did previous Mexican administrations make much noise when Mexican nationals were killed on the U.S. side of the border -- they did protest, but not with Fox's volume. Previous governments also adamantly opposed publicly acknowledging cooperation with U.S. law enforcement agencies in counternarcotics efforts. Many times, the lack of cooperation was not only rhetorical, but real. That changed with Fox; now there is considerably more U.S-Mexican anti-drug cooperation.

Both Roberto Madrazo from the Mexico's former longtime ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party and his left-wing rival, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador from the Democratic Revolutionary Party, will very likely return to the policy of a reduced level of cooperation with U.S. law-enforcement agencies. This reduction will extend past the rhetorical level if the situation on the border deteriorates -- if Mexicans are shot by U.S. authorities, for example. But at the same time, both are also likely to continue Fox's increased activism on issues affecting Mexicans within the United States. The Mexican community in the U.S. is now active politically in Mexican politics, since they can vote on Mexican elections beginning this July. Thus, expatriate Mexicans in the United States are a constituency worth wooing for political candidates in Mexico.

Unlike his rivals, Felipe Calderon from Fox's National Action Party -- the front-runner in the most recent polls -- would very likely maintain and increase cooperation with the United States if elected. Even so, domestic pressures would force him to adopt stances similar to those of his adversaries if killings of Mexican nationals on the border follow from Bush's proposed National Guard deployment.

While the Mexican position will not change markedly regardless of which party wins the July presidential election, the proposals under discussion in the United States -- namely the National Guard presence -- could help change the pre-election debate in Mexico, giving the advantage to the candidate best able to capitalize on the issue. Thus, the three main candidates will toughen their rhetoric against U.S. government border security and immigration policies in the final weeks of the campaign, and so will Fox when he visits next week. Some of the Mexican presidential candidates sought to take advantage of the immigration and border issues in the past week. Thus, Calderon criticized Bush's National Guard proposal, and Lopez Obrador criticized Fox for not being tough enough, though he toned down his comments later. By giving voice to the left wing's historical dislike of the United States, Lopez Obrador could be in position to gain the most from the border and immigration debate.

How much impact the issue will have in the run-up to July 2 remains unclear, though it will certainly become an increasingly important part of the agenda in the months before the change of administrations -- and during the entire length of the next administration. For someone like Lopez Obrador, cutting cooperation with Washington and joining the ranks -- at least in the rhetorical sense -- of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales could be attractive if the United States adopts a hard line on immigration.

While the overall positions of the Mexican government are not going to change, this does not mean no solution to border and immigration issues exists. In fact, much can be done to increase border safety. And if the Mexican economy begins to grow at an accelerated pace, it can create enough jobs to reduce the migration flow -- though this would take several years.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 111 to 112 of 112 )

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18/04/2007\|	Morocco - Casablanca's Second-String Bombers
18/04/2007\|	Morocco - Casablanca's Second-String Bombers
16/04/2007\|	Nigeria - Obasanjo Secures His Successor
16/04/2007\|	Nigeria - Obasanjo Secures His Successor
16/04/2007\|	Thailand - Southern Violence and the Scapegoat Next Door
16/04/2007\|	Thailand - Southern Violence and the Scapegoat Next Door
16/04/2007\|	Russia's Authoritarian Regime Shows Its Face
16/04/2007\|	Russia's Authoritarian Regime Shows Its Face
16/04/2007\|	Russia - Berezovsky's Bold Statement
16/04/2007\|	Russia - Berezovsky's Bold Statement
14/04/2007\|	Brief - Uranium's Increasing Popularity -- and Price
14/04/2007\|	Brief - Uranium's Increasing Popularity -- and Price
14/04/2007\|	Second Quarter Forecast 2007: The Maneuvering Before the Storm - Part II
14/04/2007\|	Second Quarter Forecast 2007: The Maneuvering Before the Storm - Part II
13/04/2007\|	Second Quarter Forecast 2007: The Maneuvering Before the Storm - Part I
13/04/2007\|	Second Quarter Forecast 2007: The Maneuvering Before the Storm - Part I
11/04/2007\|	China: The Continued Rise of the 'Responsible Stakeholder'
11/04/2007\|	China: The Continued Rise of the 'Responsible Stakeholder'
11/04/2007\|	Russia: Siberian Oil, Regional Influence and Pipeline Delays
11/04/2007\|	Russia: Siberian Oil, Regional Influence and Pipeline Delays
04/04/2007\|	China - Rural Migration and Plugging the Rural-Urban Gap
04/04/2007\|	Pakistan, India and the Annual SAARC Talkfest
31/03/2007\|	Brazil - Burgeoning Militia 'Governments' in the Slums of Rio
30/03/2007\|	Castro's Letter -- Fuel for Thought
30/03/2007\|	Sri Lanka - The Tigers Take Wing
30/03/2007\|	China - The Front-runner Moves to Shanghai
30/03/2007\|	Russia: Mixing Oil and Politics
28/03/2007\|	U.S.: A Look at Offensive Cyberwarfare
20/03/2007\|	India: The Escalating Naxalite Threat
20/03/2007\|	Looking Ahead to China's Next Leadership Transition
20/03/2007\|	Nigeria: Oil and the Presidency
20/03/2007\|	Chile's Push into Central America
15/03/2007\|	China: The Responsible Stakeholder's Overseas Operations
15/03/2007\|	Ecuador - Will the Civil Crisis Remain Civil?
15/03/2007\|	U.S.-Mexican Relations Changing
08/03/2007\|	Iranian Secrets on the Loose?
08/03/2007\|	U.S., Latin America: The President Tours a Divided Region
08/03/2007\|	Mexico: A Rise in Killings in Sonora State
08/03/2007\|	Russia: The Speculation About Thallium Poisoning
01/03/2007\|	Methyl Hydrates as a Potential in the Global Energy Industry
28/02/2007\|	China's Engineered Drop
27/02/2007\|	Mexico's Newest Criminal Refuge
27/02/2007\|	Mexico's Newest Criminal Refuge
27/02/2007\|	The Relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan's Domestic Stability
27/02/2007\|	Iraqi Oil Law Legislation Approved
27/02/2007\|	Chen's Subtle Policy Shifts
27/02/2007\|	Venezuela: A Foray into Punitive Diplomacy
27/02/2007\|	Syria's Russian Connection
08/02/2007\|	Abe's Quest for Domestic Support
08/02/2007\|	Abe's Quest for Domestic Support
08/02/2007\|	Ukraine: Keeping Its Pipelines out of Russia's Reach
08/02/2007\|	Ukraine: Keeping Its Pipelines out of Russia's Reach
07/02/2007\|	China: Reining in the Regions With Environmentalism
07/02/2007\|	Mexico: Violence Crossing the Line in Acapulco
07/02/2007\|	Mexico: Violence Crossing the Line in Acapulco
07/02/2007\|	China: Reining in the Regions With Environmentalism
05/02/2007\|	Why a Natural Gas Cartel Would Not Work
05/02/2007\|	Nigeria: Election Season and Delta Violence
05/02/2007\|	Nigeria: Election Season and Delta Violence
05/02/2007\|	Why a Natural Gas Cartel Would Not Work
05/02/2007\|	U.S. Climate Policy: Defining the Second Commitment Period
05/02/2007\|	U.S. Climate Policy: Defining the Second Commitment Period
05/02/2007\|	Thailand: The Likely Dissolution of the TRT
05/02/2007\|	Thailand: The Likely Dissolution of the TRT
05/02/2007\|	India: Pakistan's Exposed Intelligence-Gathering Operation
05/02/2007\|	India: Pakistan's Exposed Intelligence-Gathering Operation
05/02/2007\|	U.S.: Arrest in 'The Bishop' Case
05/02/2007\|	U.S.: Arrest in 'The Bishop' Case
02/02/2007\|	China's Concerns in 2007: Fears of a Perfect Storm
02/02/2007\|	China's Concerns in 2007: Fears of a Perfect Storm
01/02/2007\|	Canada, Chile: Unions, Strikes and Commodity Prices
01/02/2007\|	Canada, Chile: Unions, Strikes and Commodity Prices
01/02/2007\|	Britain's Timely Terrorism Arrests
01/02/2007\|	Britain's Timely Terrorism Arrests
31/01/2007\|	Hu's Visit to Africa: More Deals than Diplomacy
31/01/2007\|	Hu's Visit to Africa: More Deals than Diplomacy
25/01/2007\|	Ecuador: A Midair Collision and Correa's Balancing Act
25/01/2007\|	Ecuador: A Midair Collision and Correa's Balancing Act
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part I
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part I
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part II
23/01/2007\|	2007 Annual Forecast: Time to Look Inward -- Part II
10/01/2007\|	China: Exploiting the Uighur 'Terrorist Camp' Raid
10/01/2007\|	China: Exploiting the Uighur 'Terrorist Camp' Raid
03/01/2007\|	China: Aftershocks from the Crash
30/12/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/12/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/12/2006\|	Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
30/12/2006\|	Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
30/12/2006\|	Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
30/12/2006\|	Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
23/12/2006\|	Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
23/12/2006\|	Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
23/12/2006\|	Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
16/12/2006\|	A Saudi Power Struggle?
16/12/2006\|	A Saudi Power Struggle?
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
17/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief- What the Gazprom - ENI Deal Does -- and Does Not -- Mean
16/11/2006\|	Industry's New Stake in Kyoto
14/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Al Qaeda and the Airport Threat
13/11/2006\|	INDIA - The Abduction of a High-Tech Executive's Son
11/11/2006\|	CHINA - Blocking Investment to Promote Stability
11/11/2006\|	U.S., Russia: The Politics Behind the WTO Talks
11/11/2006\|	Colombia's Multifaceted Security Problem
08/11/2006\|	MEXICO - Jumping on the Oaxaca Bandwagon
07/11/2006\|	Mexico City Bombings: An Escalation in Tensions
07/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief
04/11/2006\|	AUSTRIA - The Kidnapping Plot Against a Crystal Heiress
04/11/2006\|	Iraq Without Bechtel
01/11/2006\|	Europe: The Taliban's Broadening Scope
31/10/2006\|	HONDURAS-Honduras' Operation Thunder: The Effort to Stem Rising Crime
31/10/2006\|	MEXICO - A Mexican Standoff Worsens
31/10/2006\|	BOLIVIA - BRAZIL: La Paz's Natural Gas Dilemma
28/10/2006\|	BRAZIL-Strength in Victory, Weakness in Office
28/10/2006\|	BANGLADESH - Conditions Conducive to a Coup?
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ - The Coming Change in U.S. Strategy
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ- Big Plans, Major Obstacles, for the Oil Sector
24/10/2006\|	Somalia's Islamists Court Mainstream Muslims
24/10/2006\|	SUDAN-Khartoum Moves Against Foreign Intervention in Darfur
21/10/2006\|	Japan's Nuclear Message for China
21/10/2006\|	U.S.: Al Qaeda and the U.S. Midterm Elections
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 1
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 2 - South Asia: Still Feeling the 'Washington Effect'
18/10/2006\|	The EU Scrambles for a Russia Policy
18/10/2006\|	Chemical Risk: Mass Storage and Transport as Weapons, Not Targets
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Sunset for Shtokman?
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA, BULGARIA, GREECE- The Pipe Dream Pipeline
14/10/2006\|	IRELAND -The Latest 'Tiger Kidnapping' Trend
14/10/2006\|	CHINA - Using Unions To Access Company Records
14/10/2006\|	PAKISTAN - Rockets, Coup Rumors and Musharraf
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Americans as Targets of Ultranationalist Street Gangs
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin's Hands-On Energy Policy
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin Puts LUKoil Under Pressure
07/10/2006\|	North Korea: Beijing's Diminishing Power of Persuasion
05/10/2006\|	Nigeria: The Threat Against Bonny Island
05/10/2006\|	Kuwait: Moving to Become an Oil Market-Mover?
05/10/2006\|	Dirty Bombs: Weapons of Mass Disruption
29/09/2006\|	SOMALIA - Ethiopia's Islamist Fears
28/09/2006\|	IRAN, RUSIA - A Nuclear Marriage of Convenience
27/09/2006\|	MEXICO - Passing the Oaxacan Buck
27/09/2006\|	Hezbollah's Iranian Connection
27/09/2006\|	SOUTH KOREA - Rethinking its Military Future
24/09/2006\|	THAILAND - A Possible Respite in Southern Violence
23/09/2006\|	BOLIVIA - Military Bases in the Lowlands
23/09/2006\|	KENYA - Corruption as Catalyst for Crime
23/09/2006\|	The World Bank at a Crossroads
30/08/2006\|	SRI LANKA- Strategic Potential on Hold
30/08/2006\|	A Polite Meeting About Missiles
27/08/2006\|	EU: Energy Security and the Nuclear Genie
02/08/2006\|	SOMALIA - Islamists and Clan Politics
02/08/2006\|	CUBA - A New Castro Assumes the Old Power
30/07/2006\|	AFRICA - Toward a Three-Way Conflict in the Horn of Africa
30/07/2006\|	U.S., India: Hammering Out a Nuclear Deal
28/07/2006\|	Chavez's World Tour
28/07/2006\|	Perception and Reality in the Oil Market
23/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Acapulco as a Main Front in the Drug Wars
19/07/2006\|	IRAN - Using the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict Advantageously
15/07/2006\|	The Economic Impact of an Israeli-Lebanese War
14/07/2006\|	Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder
06/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Facing Its Greatest Democratic Test
06/07/2006\|	BOLIVIA - A Highland Constitution and Lowland Discontent
06/07/2006\|	USA-The GOP Challenge: Retaining Religious Voters
06/07/2006\|	SLOVAKIA - An Unlikely Coalition
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
05/06/2006\|	Key Steps to Avoid Falling Victim to Crime
04/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Acquiring -- and Practicing -- the Necessary Skills (Part III)
03/06/2006\|	Cosmetic Change in China's Economy
02/06/2006\|	Mexico: Of Soccer and Electoral Strategy
02/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Analysis and Planning II
01/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Assessing Threats and Vulnerabilities
01/06/2006\|	U.S. Perceptions of a Chinese Threat
31/05/2006\|	Bicycles: Another Lethal Weapon in the Militant Arsenal
29/05/2006\|	Peru, Colombia: Elections and Second Thoughts on Populism
28/05/2006\|	Kaibiles: The New Lethal Force in the Mexican Drug Wars
17/05/2006\|	EU, Latin America: Summit, Or Pique?
17/05/2006\|	Brazil: When Violence Reaches a Tipping Point
13/05/2006\|	Beheadings in Mexico: The Foreign Element in Mexico's Drug Wars
07/05/2006\|	Diplomatic Snubs and Sino-U.S. Relations
07/05/2006\|	Bolivia's Energy Nationalization: Opting for Short-Term Gains
06/05/2006\|	China, Russia, U.S.: Washington's Strategic Insults
06/05/2006\|	U.S.: CIA Director Porter Goss' Resignation
04/05/2006\|	No Relief at the Gas Pumps
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia: Nationalized Oil and Gas
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia and Leftward Movement in Latin America
30/04/2006\|	COLOMBIA- A Slaying Threatens the President's Re-Election
25/04/2006\|	Repsol in Bolivia: When Business Serves Foreign Policy
24/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
24/04/2006\|	Al Qaeda's New Focus on Sudan
23/04/2006\|	Russia: Pipeline Monopolies Stymie Infrastructure Improvement
23/04/2006\|	Iraq: Jaafari Steps Aside -- Not Down
21/04/2006\|	Bush, Hu and the 'Accidental' Journalist
21/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
21/04/2006\|	The Pakistan-Jihadist Connection
18/04/2006\|	PNA: Hamas' Message in the Tel Aviv Attack
18/04/2006\|	Russia: The Centralization Trend Continues
18/04/2006\|	Countdown to a Coup in Nepal?
18/04/2006\|	Vietnam: The Party Congress Tackles Corruption
17/04/2006\|	India, Venezuela: Caracas Diversifies its Oil Markets
13/04/2006\|	North Korea: Weighing the Benefits of the Nuclear Card
13/04/2006\|	Idealism, Realism and U.S. Foreign Policy
10/04/2006\|	The Saudi Militant Threat in Israel and the Palestinian Territories
08/04/2006\|	Political Instability in Europe's Core
06/04/2006\|	Ukraine: An Orange Reunion?
06/04/2006\|	Italy's Attraction for Islamist Militants
05/04/2006\|	Venezuela's Oil Dreams
30/03/2006\|	RUSSIA: WTO Accession Still Not a Done Deal -- From Any Point of View
28/03/2006\|	ITALY - Running the Electoral Numbers
28/03/2006\|	Thailand's Political Unrest: The Significance for Multinationals
27/03/2006\|	BRAZIL- Continuity at the Finance Ministry
24/03/2006\|	CHINA-Pumping an Iranian LNG Deal for Oil
24/03/2006\|	Residential Security - PDF
24/03/2006\|	CORRUPTION-Execution in China: Sending a Message to Big Business
24/03/2006\|	SPAIN- ETA's Cease-Fire and its Search for Viability
24/03/2006\|	GERMANY -The German Weapons - Smuggling Scandal: Opportunities for Merkel
24/03/2006\|	IRAN - Reading Between the Lines of Khamenei's Blessing
22/03/2006\|	The Unlikely Terrorist Threat Against U.S. Agriculture
22/03/2006\|	INDONESIA- Violent Protests: A Message to Multinationals?
20/02/2006\|	INDONESIA-Yudhoyono's Plan for Indonesia's Resurrection
20/02/2006\|	Nigeria - Same News, Different Network
18/02/2006\|	India: Hopes for Nuclear -- and Geopolitical -- Power
11/02/2006\|	India: King Abdullah Gets the Royal Treatment
11/02/2006\|	Drugs, Weapons and Violence: The U.S.-Mexican Border's Hot Commodities
11/02/2006\|	Mexico, U.S.: Election-Year Rhetoric on Both Sides of the Border
07/02/2006\|	China's Motive in Oil Deals with India
26/01/2006\|	The Bin Laden Tape and the Strike in Damadola
25/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near-Great Powers -- Part II
22/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near -Great Powers -- Part I
19/01/2006\|	EU: Austria's Presidential Problem
19/01/2006\|	Taiwan: Chen Risks China's Ire to Visit Gadhafi
14/01/2006\|	Thailand and the Possible Terrorist Threat to Tourists
14/01/2006\|	Travel Security: The Importance of Understanding the Risks
12/01/2006\|	Iran's latest nuclear provocation : the resumption of nuclear fuel
12/01/2006\|	Arms Market: Accident or careful planning?
06/01/2006\|	Russian gas: This is not all about Moscow -- Germany has a stake as well
20/12/2005\|	Evo Morales won Bolivia's presidential elections Dec.18: Morales Signals Left, Turns Right
01/08/2005\|	Argentina: Kirchner's Populism and a Darkening Economic Future
06/01/2005\|	Iran - Rice: 'If negotiations have been exhausted, we have the votes'

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Peoples of the Earth | Martin E. Andersen

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