U.S. President George W. Bush will visit Benin, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ghana and Liberia on a Feb. 15-21 tour of Africa. The issue of security in Africa’s eastern, central, Sahel and Gulf of Guinea regions probably will dominate the closed-door discussions. Meanwhile HIV/AIDS, democracy and development partnership discussions will occupy the public stage.

The five countries Bush will take in on his six-day Africa visit are considered stable democracies, are essentially conflict-free, and are seen as reliable if low-profile U.S. partners on the continent. While unlike Nigeria, Ethiopia, or South Africa, the countries are not of great strategic importance to U.S. interests in Africa, each country is located in a region of the continent that faces significant security and terrorism risks — something that will be addressed during Bush’s visit.

Bush, who has visited Africa as president just once before — in 2003 — is expected to sign development-related deals during his five-nation visit. Bush has requested $30 billion from Congress for anti-HIV/AIDS projects in Africa and $2 billion for public and private development initiatives under the aegis of the Millennium Challenge Corp., so agreements on both topics are expected in each country he visits. The meat of Bush’s trip will lie in addressing regional conflicts and significant terrorism threats in each country, however.

• Benin lies at a crossroads of the insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa — which supplies the United States with almost 2 million barrels per day of crude oil — and the militancy in the Sahel region that has threatened governments and mining activities in Niger and Mali. Boosting maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea region has been a Pentagon priority, and is expected to factor into the relocation the Pentagon’s Africa Command (AFRICOM) from Germany to Africa. Partnering with governments in Niger and Mali to improve their counterterrorism capabilities has been a U.S. priority.
• Ghana, like Benin, factors into the supply chain infrastructure on which Niger and Mali rely.
• Tanzania has escaped the political violence and civil or jihadist conflict that has wracked its neighbors to the north. Neighboring Kenya is engulfed in a political crisis that erupted Dec. 30, 2007, following the release of disputed election results. Particularly acute in western Kenya, the violence has caused significant disruptions to the country’s supply chain infrastructure. The impact of these disruptions has been felt throughout the Great Lakes region of Africa. Mineral-rich Tanzania is considered a possible alternative supply chain route to the Great Lakes region. While meeting Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete, who recently was elected chairman of the African Union, Bush is likely to support regional conflict resolution efforts aimed at Kenya. As part of this effort, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit Nairobi, according to a Feb. 14 White House announcement.
• Rwanda appears to have been included so the United States can pursue a similar peace effort, in this case to support peace talks aimed at resolving a proxy conflict between Rwandan-supported rebels and government troops in North Kivu province in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.
• Liberia, the last country Bush is scheduled to visit, is probably the most vocal U.S. ally in Africa. Liberian President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf has been the strongest proponent of U.S. interests in Africa, and her country is the only one to make a public offer to host AFRICOM. Liberia is a good contender to cooperate with the United States on boosting security in West Africa. The region continues to see unresolved conflict in resource-rich countries, including Cote d’Ivoire, and political instability in Guinea.

Bush’s itinerary notably excludes countries in which the United States has compelling strategic interests. Washington is particularly concerned with significant militant threats in eastern Africa, including an undefeated Islamist insurgency in Somalia, which threatens to engulf Kenya. Unabated tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea playing out in the proxy battleground of Somalia similarly worry Washington. Suspected militant activities in Sudan — something Khartoum wants to keep prying eyes away from — also remain a grave U.S. concern. Even so, Bush’s visit will be guided by U.S. diplomatic and security strategy in Africa.