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02/08/2006 | CUBA - A New Castro Assumes the Old Power

Stratfor Staff

Cuban leader Fidel Castro has announced that he is temporarily surrendering power to his brother Raul while recovering from extensive intestinal surgery performed July 31. This is the first such transfer during the leader's 47 years in power.

 

The rare official communication from Cuba's government coupled with recent rumors of Castro's death are signs that Castro's demise could be near. Even if he is not close to death, Havana will use his illness to discover dissidents and purge the party. Regardless of whether Castro dies, repression and strengthened government control will begin soon.


In a July 31 statement read by his personal secretary on Cuban TV, Cuban leader Fidel Castro announced that he is temporarily handing power to his brother Raul while he recovers from extensive intestinal surgery, which he underwent the same day. This is the first time Castro has relinquished power since becoming Cuba's ruler in 1959.

This is a huge step for the Castro government, which, like other dictatorial systems, functions in secrecy and communicates exclusively through carefully crafted media announcements. Making public news of Castro's illness signals he might be in worse health than the government has thus far admitted. Castro has designated Raul to succeed him. A new leader will mean increased government control over Cuban society. But even if Fidel's illness turns out to be less severe than anticipated and he resumes power, Cuba will still see more repression soon.

Cuba's longtime leader, who turns 80 on Aug. 13, has shown signs of deteriorating health in recent years, especially after breaking his knee in a fall. Two weeks ago, a new wave of the cyclical rumors regarding Fidel's health indicated he had died. Cuban parliamentary leader Ricardo Alarcon, and oddly, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, both took center stage to deny the rumors. Castro himself later dispelled the rumors by making an unexpected appearance at the Mercosur summit in Argentina on July 21; at the time, the Cuban leader looked fairly healthy. Credible reports have also suggested Castro could be suffering some form of cancer.

Castro's statement, in which he transfers power over the Communist Party, the presidency and the armed forces, does not specify when he will reassume power. It gives instructions for a summit of nonaligned nations, to be held in Havana in September; asks that his birthday celebration be postponed until Dec. 2, the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces; and states that he will remain in recovery for an extended period.

Cuban media have recently increased Raul's profile significantly. Raul's rule would likely be even more authoritarian and repressive than Fidel's rule, provided Raul manages to keep power. He has been Fidel's enforcer since the latter took power. He was in charge of purges, and has always advocated for a harder line with respect to dissidents and the rules of the system. Because he lacks Fidel's charisma and political ability, he will need to rely more heavily on force.

At the present time there are no members of Cuba's top echelon that would pose a direct threat to Raul Castro's accession to power, at least not in the short term. It has been Fidel's practice to purge any member of the Politburo starting to show signs of independence. Those at the top of the Cuban government -- such as Alarcon, Vice President of the State Council Carlos Lage and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque -- are thought to be extremely close to Raul, and none of them commands sufficient respect from the armed forces or other sections of the government to make them contenders for the top job. However, the fact that none of these individuals represent a threat to Raul does not mean he would have an easy transition or unconditional loyalty from everyone in government.

After the news of Castro's illness, unconfirmed reports emerged that rapid-response brigades were being deployed in different cities in Cuba -- which, if true, would be a clear signal that the regime is not going to allow any dissent during this period. Havana can be expected to clamp down on any real or imagined opposition. In fact, Castro's illness could even have been overplayed precisely to observe the reaction of potential troublemakers, who could then be purged.

While it is beyond doubt that the Bush administration, or any U.S. government, would welcome Fidel's end, it is hard to believe the government would pick this moment to worry about one more open front. Reports indicate the White House is watching the situation closely. Another thing to watch is the reaction of the Cuban exile community in Miami. U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen asked Cuban exiles not to try to go to Cuba by water, since they would be shot by the Cuban military.

This time around, Castro's poor health looks real. But whether he dies, is incapacitated by a long recovery or tries to fool everybody again with another round of speculation, conditions for Cubans are going to worsen in the short and medium term.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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