Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque said the Cuban government is considering easing restrictions on Cubans’ ability to travel abroad. Perez Roque spoke March 20 at a meeting with representatives of Cuban emigre organizations.

The more lenient travel rules would come on the heels of reforms of the rules governing the purchase of agricultural supplies and equipment, part of the more liberal policies emerging since Fidel Castro’s brother, Raul, took power. But though immigration policies are likely to ease, Cuba probably will not permit a mass exodus of its population. And even if the policies do ease, real economic reforms will be needed to prevent unrest in the long term.

At present, it is not easy for Cubans to travel to the United States. Cubans must first receive a letter of invitation from a family member in the United States and pay a $150.00 fee. They must then apply for an official government exit permit and pay another $150 fee. Finally, the Foreign Ministry must approve their departure. Since the average monthly Cuban salary is $17, exit permits are out of reach to all but the privileged, and only those with political connections can get their departure approved. Cubans of privilege obviously have greater reason to return to Cuba than do the desperately poor, keeping the level of defection low.

To some extent, the timing of the announcement will deflate the Cuban opposition, which has grown somewhat more vocal with the recent transfer of power. The discussion of reform shows Cuba as confident and proactive instead of decrepit and reactionary. But actually making immigration easier carries the risk of allowing a freer flow of ideas from the United States, fueling Cuban dissidents. Conversely, it would create new cover for Cuban intelligence seeking to infiltrate the United States.

The reforms could lead to an increase in foreign investment in Cuba, which usually takes the form of joint ventures with a slight majority owned by the Cuban government. Remittances — which at $600 million to $1 billion a year provide a huge boost to the Cuban economy — could increase with eased travel restrictions; at present, Cubans are limited to bringing $300 into the country per trip.

Ultimately, it is unlikely that enough policies can be put into place to create sustained economic growth. The last economic improvement happened after Cuba pulled itself out of the economic wreckage of the 1990s that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent end of Soviet subsidies. In order to quell unrest in the long term, real economic change is needed. Until then, Cuba’s influence in the region will remain limited.