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07/03/2009 | Morocco - A Saudi-led Diplomatic Offensive Against Iran

Stratfor Staff

Morocco broke off diplomatic ties with Iran on March 6 after accusing Tehran of engaging in hostile activities in the North African state. The move is part of a new Saudi initiative to forge a common Arab platform to counter the threat from a rising Iran. The Saudis are unlikely to achieve their aim because of the divisions in the Arab world, especially on the issue of how to deal with the Islamic republic.

 

Morocco cut off diplomatic relations with Iran on March 6. The official Moroccan news agency, Maghreb Arab Presse, cited a statement from Rabat’s foreign ministry as saying the decision was taken in the light of the “inadmissible attitude” of the Iranian authorities against Morocco, whereby Iranian diplomatic personnel were engaged in activities designed to change the religious character of the Moroccan monarchy. It also denounced as unacceptable the recent remarks by former Iranian Interior Minister Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri, who said that Bahrain used to be Iran’s 14th province, and that it still has a seat in Iran’s parliament.

These remarks created a major uproar in the Arab world, leading Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to travel to Manama and offer to send troops to the Persian Gulf state. But because Cairo does not have the capability to counter Iran even though it has the largest Arab military, the offer largely was symbolic. Therefore, the Arabs — under Saudi Arabia’s leadership — have embarked upon a diplomatic offensive to respond to Iran’s brazenness.

Morocco’s move to snap ties with Iran thus appears to be part of a Saudi-led Arab initiative to forge a common Arab front to counter the threat from a rising Iran. It comes two days after Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal called on Arab states to move toward a unified approach in dealing with the Iranian challenge on security in the Persian Gulf and on the nuclear issue. Speaking at a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers in Cairo, Prince Saud said that non-Arab countries should not interfere in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories — a clear reference to Iran, which has been backing both radical Shiite and Sunni forces.

Given the close relations between Saudi Arabia and Morocco (the terminally ill Saudi Crown Prince Sultan has been spending a great deal of time in the North African country), it is very likely that Riyadh encouraged Morocco to sever ties with the Shiite Persian state. It should be noted that no other Arab country went to the extreme of cutting off ties with Iran. Even tensions between Bahrain and Iran cooled down following diplomatic contacts.

In fact, the countries that have the most to fear from Iran are the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman — because of geography. The Arab country that actually broke ties, Morocco, is on the other side of the Middle East, 3,400 miles from Iran. Furthermore, Iranian-Moroccan relations have never counted for much, and Shia constitute less than 1 percent of Morocco’s Muslim population.

The Arabs clearly do not want to take things too far with Iran for fear of creating a backlash from the Shia in the Arab world, which is exactly what Iran hopes to ferment. This is why none of the main Arab players, especially those from the GCC region, have severed ties with Iran. The Saudis are also trying to work around the general disagreements within the Arab world, especially the lack of a consensus on how to deal with Iran.

Efforts to create a common position will be high on the agenda for the Arab League summit, which Qatar will host in late March. Given the general state of Arab disunity, the Saudis are not very likely to achieve their aim. What is certain is that the Saudi moves will increase sectarian tensions in the Middle East, especially since the United States has started carrying out its plan to diplomatically engage Iran by inviting Tehran to a conference on Afghanistan.


Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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