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05/01/2009 | The Gaza Offensive and Obama's Presidency

Stratfor Staff

Israel’s military offensive against Hamas in Gaza entered its ninth day on Sunday. Israeli forces moved across the Gaza Strip to the Mediterranean, splitting the territory in two, and began gathering around Gaza City.

 

Though Israel has no intention of reoccupying the territory, Israeli officials have made clear that the operation could intensify and be extended for a considerable time — until they are is satisfied Hamas has been dealt a heavy blow. The situation likely will dominate the headlines for some time, but little will have changed on a geopolitical level when it is over. Even assuming that Israel succeeds in crippling Hamas’ military wing and in restoring some of its own deterrent prowess against irregular forces in the region, Hamas will not be eliminated as either a political or militant force in the territory.

But with the U.S. presidential inauguration just days away, it looks as though the Israeli-Palestinian issue will occupy a good deal of Washington’s attention after President-elect Barack Obama takes office Jan. 20 — even though it pales in comparison to a host of critical matters that will be waiting for Obama to address.

Following the Israeli operation in Gaza, the Palestinian territories will remain more or less divided — politically, territorially, economically and militarily — between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, making the formation of a viable Palestinian state virtually impossible. And Hamas will still be a force in Gaza; the group has extensive social networks in the region and maintains substantial popular support there. Furthermore, Hamas’ rival Fatah is severely internally divided and lacks the ability to impose its influence in Gaza, regardless of how strong or weak Hamas may be. Meanwhile, Israel will continue its policy of divorcing itself from the Palestinian issue, content to have the Palestinians fighting among themselves as long as their militant assets do not threaten Israel proper.

In short, the Gaza operation is not Israel’s end-all offensive against the Palestinians –- merely another chapter in an intractable conflict that will continue to draw the world’s attention from time to time.

The Obama administration faces a number of issues with far more geopolitical significance than the current Israeli offensive. The India-Pakistan crisis is still far from resolved, with officials in New Delhi now in the process of making the case to the international community that elements of the Pakistani state were involved in the Nov. 26 Mumbai attacks. The Indian home minister expected in Washington this week to present evidence on the Pakistani link, and there is no guarantee that Pakistan will be able to evade military action from the Indians unless Islamabad somehow follows through with politically costly demands to purge its intelligence apparatus and crack down on its militant proxies — demands that it may simply lack the capacity to fulfill.

Meanwhile, the situation in Afghanistan shows little sign of improving, as the Taliban continue to strengthen. In Iraq, a number of problems are on the horizon as the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad and Tehran both exploit constraints placed on U.S. forces by the new Status of Forces Agreement to contain Iraq’s Sunni and Kurdish factions. Meanwhile, Russia has cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine — just one of many steps the Kremlin intends to take to secure its influence in its near abroad, at the expense of the United States and its Western allies, while Washington remains preoccupied. All of these foreign policy challenges are unfolding against the backdrop of a global financial crisis that is knocking the wind out of the world’s most active economic hubs.

Obama will have to hit the ground running Jan. 20, but the Gaza situation could slow his administration down in the early phase of his presidency. Whether a cease-fire is negotiated, Hamas is crippled or Israel suffers another symbolic defeat, little will change in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (though any of these outcomes could absorb significant international attention). The effects of a resurgent Russia, a crippling financial contagion or a potential crisis on the Indian subcontinent, however, will be felt long after events in Gaza disappear from the headlines.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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