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23/04/2006 | Iraq: Jaafari Steps Aside -- Not Down

Stratfor Staff

Iraq's Shiite bloc picked Jawad al-Maliki on April 21 as its nominee for prime minister, replacing Ibrahim Jaafari as the group's choice. Initial agreement on the other top jobs in the new Iraqi state also was announced.

 

The choice of al-Maliki, a top leader of Jaafari's Hizb al-Dawah party, indicates the Shia have reached a compromise that allows Jaafari to retain power. This development, however, does not necessarily mean the deadlock over forming a coalition government has been broken.


The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) agreed April 21 to replace interim Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari with Jawad al-Maliki as its candidate for the post of full-term prime minister, according to Jalal Eddin al-Sagheer, a senior leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), one of the top three groups in the bloc. Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani and SCIRI's No. 2 man Adel Abdel Mahdi will retain their positions as president and vice president respectively. The other vice presidential post will go to senior Sunni Islamist politician Tariq al-Hashimi. Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, a Sunni, is to become speaker of the parliament, with Khalid Attiya, a Shi'i, and Aref Tayfour, a Kurd, serving as his deputies. These nominations are to be presented to a session of parliament April 22.

The controversy over Jaafari's nomination, after months of debate, finally was resolved because Jaafari came to understand that he can retain considerable power within the government in other ways. For example, the SCIRI's Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, despite being party chief and UIA president, holds no state office. Mahdi, however, serves as interim vice president and, if the April 21 nominations are any indication, he could retain the post in the full-term government.

Jaafari likely will be given a prominent position in the Cabinet or the National Security Council. Al-Maliki, who is among the top three leaders of Jaafari's Hizb al-Dawah party, was the acceptable alternative.

This development is in keeping with Stratfor's prediction that the Shiite alliance would be able to resolve the dispute over the prime ministerial nominee. The consensus reached by the UIA is a fragile one -- just as is the unity between its various constituent groups.

Moreover, the UIA's understanding with the other blocs regarding the top positions is not yet set in stone. The problems at the ethno-sectarian level still need to be sorted out as regards a final, comprehensive power-sharing agreement. Negotiations in this regard could continue for another few weeks before a government will emerge, because the Sunnis, Kurds and secular nationalists might have objections to al-Maliki's nomination. These objections might not be serious, but they will be used by these groups as a bargaining counter in the final phase of negotiations over the formation of the full-term government. While this takes place, jihadist attacks designed to counteract the apparent breakthrough could also be in the pipeline.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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