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31/12/2009 | Election 2009: Uzbek President Solidifies Power by Orchestrating Third Parliamentary Poll

Global Insight Staff

Uzbekistan’s president Islam Karimov has orchestrated the third parliamentary election since independence from the USSR in 1991, allowing only four pro-presidential parties to compete, while banning the opposition.

 

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance: Uzbekistan has held a legislative election for the 150-seat Oliy Majlis, the lower house of parliament; however, the polls failed to fill all the parliamentary seats, prompting a second round.

Implications: The stage-managed election has proved to be nothing but the incumbent president's show of power, failing international standards and exposing the extent of President Islam Karimov's authority in the country.

Outlook: Despite Karimov's reassurances of endorsing a new democratic parliament where the parties will engage in democratic competition for power, the election was a repeat of the 2005 legislative vote, with no presence of a real opposition party and near to total control of the pro-presidential forces during the election campaign. The election will only serve to deepen apathy amongst voters and to solidify Karimov's authoritarian power in the country.

On 27 December Uzbekistan, Central Asia’s most populous country of some 28 million inhabitants, held its legislative election for the 150-seat Oliy Majlis, the lower chamber of parliament. Only four pro-presidential parties, along with an environmental movement, were allowed to take part in the election: the National Revival Party "Milly Tiklanish"; the People's Democratic Party (KhDP); the Social Democratic Party "Adolat"; and the Liberal Democratic Party of Uzbekistan (LDPU). All four parties had the incumbent president Islam Karimov as their candidate during the 2007 presidential election and held parliamentary seats prior to the 27 December election. The Ecological Movement of Uzbekistan, the only officially approved environmental party by law, introduced in 2008, is entitled to the 15 parliamentary seats. According to the head of the Central Elections Commission, Miraz-Ulugbek Abdusalomov, 270 observers from 36 countries and missions of four international organisations had monitored the election. The list did not include the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which had refrained from sending any of it monitors, citing the country’s democratic shortcomings. The Commission also stated that the voter turnout stood high at 88% (about 17 million voters); however, the polls failed to fill one-third of the parliamentary seats: in 40 out of 135 districts no one managed to garner an absolute majority to be elected. Abdusalomov stated that the second round of the election will take place at a later date, but did not reveal when.

Karimov's Managed Democracy

Prior to the election President Karimov acknowledged that previous parliamentary elections held by Uzbekistan since it became independent in 1991 were not really democratic as there were no real political parties. However, Karimov had promised a marked difference in the 27 December election. He envisages that the new parliament will be a place where all the political parties will compete in democratic fashion and will bring changes and reforms to the country, securing the peaceful and democratic transition of power. Karimov’s optimism is indeed shared by some of his fellow citizens and comes from a recent novelty in Uzbek politics: for the first time the participating parties were vocally critical of one another.

Although open criticism of some politicians is certainly a positive democratic development in this former Soviet Central Asian state, it is by no stretch able to cover up the fact that the country is ruled by an authoritarian former Communist leader and his clan, which has held the country in its firm grip since 1989 after gaining power prior to the 1991 independence. Nor can it obscure the fact that there are no registered opposition parties in Uzbekistan and that all four parties participating in Sunday’s vote were carefully handpicked by Karimov, who, incidentally, was excluded from any of the aforementioned critical pre-election debates. Moreover, Uzbekistan continues to hold at least 6,000 religious and political prisoners. Its leadership’s repressive measures have effectively excluded the country from the scope of cooperation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

President Karimov seems to promote the notion of a "controlled democracy", which effectively means that no real democratic competition is allowed that would threaten the position of the ruling clan. Unsurprisingly, the authorities were swift to expel the leader of the Birdamlik (Solidarity) Uzbek opposition movement, Bakhodir Choriev, who came back to the country in October this year after spending five years in exile. Choriev was forced by Uzbekistan’s law enforcement officers to board a U.S.-bound plane soon after he announced his intention to relaunch his political activities in the run-up to the parliamentary election. He was warned to refrain from further political activities in Uzbekistan otherwise more serious measures would follow.

Outlook and Implications

The recent parliamentary election was a simple show of Karimov’s absolute power in the country. The election of the parliamentarians from handpicked parties is set to create a rubber-stamping parliament. Uzbekistan has failed yet again to gain a legislature that could have introduced political and market-oriented reforms in this Central Asian country. The outlook for Uzbekistan’s political opposition remains bleak. With the change of the U.S. and indeed European Union (EU) geopolitical goals, Uzbekistan’s democratic shortcomings are likely to be ignored more in the future. The EU has already lifted sanctions imposed on Uzbekistan after the violent government crackdown on demonstrators in Andizhan in 2005. This thaw in Western relations with Uzbekistan is likely to continue given that the former is currently more interested in the success of its military campaign in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan, with its strategic close location to the troubled region, is a safe corridor for the Western military logistical supply, a much-preferred route compared to volatile Pakistan. Although Karimov’s authoritarian rule is providing stability in the country, which is known for its problems with fundamentalist Islamic groups such as Hizbut Tahrir, it is also sowing the seeds of the future political unrest that may ensue when Karimov leaves the presidential post.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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