Significance

The Chavez administration yesterday engaged in yet more inflammatory rhetoric by announcing that Venezuela could count on the services of 1.5 million reservists to defend its 'sovereignty'.

Implications

The comments come as the Chavez administration appears ever more confident in implementing its Bolivarian Revolution and presenting that revolution as an example to the wider region.

Outlook

Concern is clearly growing in Washington, and the tension between Venezuela and the US looks set to become a test of each country's relative influence in the region.

During his weekly Hello President television programme, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez stated that the country was ready to protect its sovereignty and that any country coming to Venezuela with the aim of robbing it of the same would end up 'biting the dust'. For his part, army General Julio Quintero Viloria, head of the General Reserve Commando, announced that the number of reservists would soon rise from 80,000 to 1.5 million, although he gave no specific dates.

Chavez Ratchets Up the Tension

The weekend's comments fit into a pattern of increasingly antagonistic statements from Venezuela. This year has seen Chavez significantly step up his rhetoric and posturing, much to the chagrin of the administration of President George W. Bush in the US.

Already this year Chavez has accused Washington of seeking to assassinate him, labelling President Bush a 'jerk', calling the US government a 'mafia of assassins' and commenting that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was an 'illiterate' whom he would not marry . More crucially, Chavez has also threatened to cut off Venezuelan oil supplies to the US. With Venezuela currently supplying around 13% of the US's oil imports (1.5 million barrels a day), those threats come as a concern. Any shortfall in supply from the South American nation would have serious implications on the superpower's energy security.

At the same time, Chavez's recent arms purchases have equally riled the White House. Venezuela recently struck a deal that will see Russia supply the South American nation with 100,000 AK-47 automatic rifles and 40 helicopters . Washington has repeatedly stated that the deal could threaten the region's stability, and that the weapons could fall into the hands of criminals or the left-wing Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla movement, with whom Chavez is accused of sympathising. Venezuela insists that it is merely replacing out-of-date equipment, but another deal agreed just last week with Spain has further ruffled the US's feathers and raised eyebrows elsewhere . In addition, Chavez has created uncertainty over private property rights by seemingly kicking off what looks set to become become a large-scale land grab.

Outlook and Implications

This recent flurry of activity on the part of Chavez underlines his confidence, having emerged victorious from the August 2004 recall referendum on his rule and the October 2004 regional elections. A recent rise in oil prices has further reinforced this confidence, as have developing relations with the left-of-centre governments across South America. His recent moves have clearly caused the US to sit up and take note, concerned at the apparent snowballing of Chavez's 'Bolivarian Revolution'.

Chavez is now the US's number one concern in South America. His 'Bolivarian' vision is meant to appeal to the region as a whole and was always destined to put him on a collision course with Washington, whose vision for the region, exemplified by the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), is in stark contrast to Chavez's 'revolution'. The tension between the US and Venezuela seems to reflect Chavez's view that the hemispheric balance of power has shifted against the US and that he is in a strong enough position to act as he sees fit, for the time being at least. The first quarter of 2005 certainly suggests that Chavez is beginning to make a move of some sorts. The tension between the two countries looks set to become a test of their relative influence in the region. At present it remains unclear who will prevail.