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23/09/2006 | BOLIVIA - Military Bases in the Lowlands

Stratfor Staff

The Bolivian Defense Ministry confirmed Sept. 21 that Bolivia -- with help from Venezuela -- will build at least two new military bases in the lowlands along Bolivia's borders with Brazil and Paraguay, where up to 2,500 elite troops will be trained for placement on the borders. This move is mostly intended as a message to the opposition movement in the lowlands, but it will have repercussions throughout the region.

 

On Sept. 21, the Bolivian Defense Ministry confirmed reports that Bolivia will build at least two new military bases along its borders with Paraguay and Brazil. Once built, the bases will be used to train up to 2,500 soldiers, whom La Paz referred to as "elite troops." Venezuela has pledged its support for the project but has not yet specified how it will contribute.

Bolivian President Evo Morales said the bases are being constructed in response to aggression from the United States, and that all countries have the right to reinforce their defenses. However, the construction locations happen to be in Bolivia's lowlands, the stronghold of the country's opposition movement. Bases along the borders will allow the troops stationed there to isolate Bolivia's lowlands from neighboring countries should civil conflict arise. This move signals two things: Morales' intention to crack down on separatists in the lowlands, and his allegiance to the leftist agenda.

BOLIVIA - Military Bases in the Lowlands


The bases can be built quickly and cheaply, depending on the level of quality the Bolivians want. If they intend to simply move troops to the borders, confiscate land, throw up a few buildings and give the troops a little extra training, the whole operation can be done with minimal fuss. But if La Paz intends to set up a meaningful logistics and command-and-control hub in the lowlands, more time and resources will be needed. Morales said the plan will cost about $22 million. It is unclear how much Venezuela will be willing or able to spend on its leftist ally when oil prices are on a downward slide.

Venezuela is willing to help Bolivia pursue this tough military stance for three reasons. First, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is committed to spreading the Bolivarian Revolution and leftist ideals throughout Latin America. Any strengthening of Bolivia, as a Venezuelan ally, boosts those ideals. Second, Chavez is committed to doing anything that will aggravate the United States, and a highly militarized Bolivia -- particularly a Bolivia with troops stationed near Paraguay, where the United States has been training Paraguayan troops -- is a great opportunity for him. Finally, the lowland opposition movement may well be a serious threat to Morales' government, and Venezuela does not want Morales and his leftist agenda to fail.

Bolivia's opposition movement wants a place at the bargaining table during the creation of Bolivia's new constitution. In response to Morales' leftist policies, which have resulted in land-grabs, the nationalization of the hydrocarbons industry and other troubles for the lowlands, four of Bolivia's nine departments have unified in opposition, with some of the more radical elements calling for secession or civil war.

This new government move to place military bases in the lowlands is a blatant attempt to intimidate the opposition. There is as yet no indication that the opposition is armed to any meaningful extent, but when the four opposition departments went on a civic strike recently, all transportation and commerce stopped. Putting bases there will not prevent civic strikes -- the protests, rallies and strikes have not been violent -- but it would discourage the escalation of protests. However, it is quite possible that with this attempt at quashing the opposition, Morales could further alienate the lowlanders. This could push the opposition to seek outside help from Paraguay, or possibly even the United States. While there may be little that militarily limited Paraguay could do for the lowland opposition, La Paz's ability to seal the border is intimidating in and of itself.

The construction of bases would have effects that reach beyond Bolivia's borders. Paraguayan President Nicanor Duarte on Sept. 15 abruptly changed his itinerary to visit Morales at the U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York on Sept. 18. During that meeting, Duarte expressed concerns that Bolivian troops on the border with Paraguay would threaten the politically centrist nation. The Paraguayan military is small but it has been building ties with the United States; in 2005, the United States sent 400 U.S. Marines to train Paraguayan troops. If Paraguay feels threatened enough by Morales' aggressive militarism, it might seek a U.S. presence more urgently.

Morales has recently moved away, subtly but perceptively, from Chavez; however, this military partnership in the Bolivian lowlands is a signal of Morales' intention to retain his leftist ideals. The base-construction project indicates that the alliance between Chavez and Morales remains strong, and it shows that Chavez can -- and will -- affect regional matters, even if by proxy.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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