Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
  En Parrilla Medio Ambiente Sociedad High Tech Contacto
Frente Externo  
 
30/03/2007 | China - The Front-runner Moves to Shanghai

Stratfor Staff

The Communist Party of China (CPC) on March 24 appointed Xi Jinping, former Party secretary of the coastal Zhejiang province, as Party secretary of Shanghai.

 

The move is both part of a regular shuffle of provincial and city-level CPC officials and a restructuring of Shanghai's leadership following a major purge that started in 2006. It also raises Xi to the forefront of the contenders to succeed Chinese President Hu Jintao in 2012.


The Communist Party of China (CPC) announced March 24 that Xi Jinping, Party secretary of Zhejiang province, has become Party secretary of Shanghai.

The new post is part of a broader shuffling of CPC officials on the provincial and city levels. This shuffle has been going on for more than a year while President Hu Jintao stacks the deck with supporters ahead of the critical CPC Congress later this year, where Hu is expected to anoint his chosen successor. Xi's appointment also completes the purge in Shanghai, a former bastion of support within the CPC for opponents to Hu's economic and social programs, and places a key Hu ally in charge of the economically and politically critical coastal city. Xi's move is significant for more than Hu's consolidation of power, however -- Xi is on the short list of potential successors to Hu.

Xi's move to Shanghai represents both a consolidation of power and a test for his rising political star. Xi got rave reviews for his economic work in Zhejiang, but fixing Shanghai will test his political acumen, and he has only a short time to show progress. The CPC Congress is slated for sometime in September or October, and Hu is expected to reshape the politburo, placing his chosen successor in the top CPC body. Just as Hu was given Tibet as a place to prove his abilities, it appears Xi has been handed Shanghai.

The leadership transition upon Hu's departure, which is set to take place in 2012, has drawn quite a bit of speculation from observers both outside and inside China. Unlike the transition from former President Jiang Zemin to Hu, which was arranged even before Jiang took power, there is no designated successor for Hu. His current vice president, Zeng Qinghong, is already 78; he was installed as a compromise to appease the Jiang faction during the transition. Further, as the CPC has reinvigorated the concept of consensus rule over one-man rule, the internal decision-making on the best candidates for the next president is both wide-ranging and intense -- and entering somewhat uncharted territory.

There are four potential successors believed to be in the running: Xi; Li Keqiang, Party secretary of Liaoning province; Li Yuanchao, Party secretary of Jiangsu province; and outside contender Bo Xilai, China's commerce minister. All have close ties with Hu. Many also belonged to the Communist Youth League, a bastion of Hu support, and were also part of the "sent down" generation of students sent to the countryside during the Cultural Revolution.

 

If Beijing sticks to its preferred retirement age of 65, and wants the next president to serve two terms like Jiang and Hu -- which helps maintain political stability -- Bo is out. (He will be 63 in 2012.) Most eyes have been on Li Keqiang, the youngest of the group. He is currently in the northern Liaoning province, a key focus of Hu's economic reconstruction plans. Li Yuanchao is more of an outsider, so the real race appears to be between Li Keqiang and Xi.

The move of Xi to Shanghai raises Xi's profile and responsibility, and suggests his final test before the potential ascension to the line of succession. But Beijing is known to throw in wildcards at times, and to keep observers guessing -- and the Chinese are keenly aware of the international attention focused on the succession issue. For Beijing, there is a mixed view regarding giving indications of the next leader's identity too early. On one hand, early indicators can reassure the business world of the stability of Chinese leadership. On the other hand, they open the appointed successor to increased attempts at influence peddling and access by businesses and politicians both foreign and domestic -- weakening the existing president's control.

Though the clear line of succession in China is not apparent, the move of Xi to politically critical Shanghai appears to raise the odds in his favor. If Hu can lock Shanghai under his own control, opposition to his economic policies becomes less concrete, and his political leadership strengthens. Hu spent the weekend extolling the new private property laws, basking in this long and difficult victory. He now needs close allies in key places to implement his economic policies. And if those allies, like Xi, prove successful, they will see their political fortunes rise as well.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 11 to 20 of 1633 )
fecha titulo
07/01/2014 Why China Can’t Rise Quietly
06/01/2014 ¿En qué cree China?
26/12/2013 China Sends Mixed Message On Economic Growth – Analysis
18/12/2013 Stopping the bullies of Beijing
17/12/2013 China And Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ): An Airman’s Perspective
13/12/2013 China’s Shadow Currency
26/11/2013 China’s ‘Mystery Warriors’
20/11/2013 Reformas 2.0 en China
17/11/2013 China - Más flexibilidad
16/11/2013 China - El sueño de la clase media


Otras Notas del Autor
fecha
Título
18/11/2016|
17/04/2016|
27/03/2016|
12/02/2016|
25/10/2013|
29/09/2013|
12/09/2013|
08/09/2013|
06/09/2013|
26/08/2013|
20/08/2013|
20/08/2013|
07/08/2013|
06/08/2013|
31/07/2013|
20/07/2013|
16/07/2013|
03/07/2013|
02/07/2013|
02/07/2013|
01/07/2013|
01/07/2013|
01/07/2013|
05/06/2013|
27/05/2013|
27/05/2013|
27/05/2013|
02/05/2013|
30/04/2013|
19/04/2013|
17/04/2013|
04/03/2013|
01/03/2013|
18/01/2013|
16/11/2012|
16/11/2012|
15/11/2012|
03/08/2011|
03/08/2011|
29/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
14/07/2011|
14/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
06/07/2011|
06/07/2011|
07/06/2011|
07/06/2011|
20/05/2011|
20/05/2011|
02/05/2011|
02/05/2011|
19/03/2011|
17/03/2011|
14/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
03/03/2011|
22/02/2011|
21/02/2011|
12/02/2011|
01/02/2011|
30/01/2011|
29/01/2011|
28/01/2011|
19/01/2011|
07/01/2011|
29/12/2010|
17/12/2010|
16/12/2010|
10/12/2010|
24/11/2010|
23/11/2010|
15/04/2010|
15/04/2010|
03/04/2009|
31/03/2009|
31/03/2009|
30/03/2009|
30/03/2009|
28/03/2009|
28/03/2009|
26/03/2009|
25/03/2009|
25/03/2009|
23/03/2009|
23/03/2009|
20/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
11/03/2009|
11/03/2009|
10/03/2009|
10/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
31/01/2009|
31/01/2009|
31/01/2009|
23/01/2009|
23/01/2009|
18/01/2009|
13/01/2009|
05/01/2009|
02/01/2009|
25/12/2008|
25/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
19/12/2008|
14/12/2008|
14/12/2008|
13/12/2008|
13/12/2008|
07/12/2008|
07/12/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
26/11/2008|
26/11/2008|
25/10/2008|
25/10/2008|
22/10/2008|
22/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
11/10/2008|
11/10/2008|
08/10/2008|
08/10/2008|
20/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
08/08/2008|
08/08/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
12/05/2008|
17/04/2008|
17/04/2008|
25/03/2008|
24/03/2008|
24/03/2008|
18/03/2008|
18/03/2008|
10/03/2008|
07/03/2008|
22/02/2008|
22/02/2008|
22/02/2008|
18/02/2008|
18/02/2008|
18/02/2008|
16/02/2008|
13/02/2008|
12/02/2008|
09/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
30/12/2007|
30/12/2007|
30/12/2007|
27/12/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
11/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
30/10/2007|
04/10/2007|
28/09/2007|
16/09/2007|
16/09/2007|
08/09/2007|
06/09/2007|
30/08/2007|
26/08/2007|
22/08/2007|
22/08/2007|
22/08/2007|
21/08/2007|
11/08/2007|
08/08/2007|
14/07/2007|
02/05/2007|
02/05/2007|
20/04/2007|
20/04/2007|
20/04/2007|
20/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
13/04/2007|
13/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
31/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
28/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
15/03/2007|
15/03/2007|
15/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
01/03/2007|
28/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
02/02/2007|
02/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
31/01/2007|
31/01/2007|
25/01/2007|
25/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
10/01/2007|
10/01/2007|
03/01/2007|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
29/11/2006|
29/11/2006|
29/11/2006|
29/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
18/11/2006|
18/11/2006|
17/11/2006|
16/11/2006|
14/11/2006|
13/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
08/11/2006|
07/11/2006|
07/11/2006|
04/11/2006|
04/11/2006|
01/11/2006|
31/10/2006|
31/10/2006|
31/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
21/10/2006|
21/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
07/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
29/09/2006|
28/09/2006|
27/09/2006|
27/09/2006|
27/09/2006|
24/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
30/08/2006|
30/08/2006|
27/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
30/07/2006|
30/07/2006|
28/07/2006|
28/07/2006|
23/07/2006|
19/07/2006|
15/07/2006|
14/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
24/06/2006|
24/06/2006|
22/06/2006|
22/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
05/06/2006|
04/06/2006|
03/06/2006|
02/06/2006|
02/06/2006|
01/06/2006|
01/06/2006|
31/05/2006|
29/05/2006|
28/05/2006|
23/05/2006|
17/05/2006|
17/05/2006|
13/05/2006|
07/05/2006|
07/05/2006|
06/05/2006|
06/05/2006|
04/05/2006|
02/05/2006|
02/05/2006|
30/04/2006|
25/04/2006|
24/04/2006|
24/04/2006|
23/04/2006|
23/04/2006|
21/04/2006|
21/04/2006|
21/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
17/04/2006|
13/04/2006|
13/04/2006|
10/04/2006|
08/04/2006|
06/04/2006|
06/04/2006|
05/04/2006|
30/03/2006|
28/03/2006|
28/03/2006|
27/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
22/03/2006|
22/03/2006|
20/02/2006|
20/02/2006|
18/02/2006|
11/02/2006|
11/02/2006|
11/02/2006|
07/02/2006|
26/01/2006|
25/01/2006|
22/01/2006|
19/01/2006|
19/01/2006|
14/01/2006|
14/01/2006|
12/01/2006|
12/01/2006|
06/01/2006|
20/12/2005|
01/08/2005|
06/01/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House