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27/02/2007 | Chen's Subtle Policy Shifts

Stratfor Staff

Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian met Wednesday with American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Stephen Young and U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot, co-chair of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus in Taipei. During the talks, Chen reiterated his stance that only Taiwan's 23 million citizens have the right to decide whether the nation's future lies in unification with China.

 

Chen also called the "one-China" policy still adhered to by the United States "outdated and unfit for today's situation, as Taiwan has fully democratized."

Chen's comments were directed squarely at Washington. The AIT serves as a de facto U.S. Embassy in Taiwan (Washington cannot put an embassy there due to the "one-China" policy), and the Taiwan Caucus -- comprising nearly 150 members -- was created in 2002 to maintain awareness of the changing nature of U.S.-Taiwanese relations. Chen's comment that the policy is outdated was a further attempt to press Washington to alter its stance and begin treating Taiwan not as a second-class entity but as a true nation. And it comes as Chen is beginning to accelerate his rhetoric and actions aimed at reshaping the "Taiwan identity" at home as a way to ultimately get it accepted abroad.

The meeting with Young and Chabot came during the Lunar New Year celebration, marking the start of the Year of the Golden Pig, a year of prosperity. It also is a year of Taiwanese parliamentary elections, and the lead-up to the presidential election in 2008. And while Chen is constitutionally forbidden from running again, he is trying to shape the focus of the election campaigns away from Taiwan's economic and social issues and toward the fundamental question of Taiwan's identity. In recent weeks, for example, Chen has spearheaded a move to get state-owned enterprises and banks to remove "Republic of China" or "China" from their names, replacing it with "Taiwan."

Chen's actions naturally have stirred the ire of Beijing. But they also have caused more than a few headaches in Washington. During the 2006 Lunar New Year celebration, for example, Chen announced plans to disband the National Unification Council (NUC), which was set up under former President Lee Teng-hui in order to prepare for the eventual reunification of Taiwan and China. By eliminating the NUC, Chen broke one of his "Five No's" -- a list of things he promised not to do when he took power, including declaring independence.

The decision to disband the NUC was greeted with anger in Beijing and frustration in Washington, especially since U.S. officials had tried to discourage Taipei from taking "provocative" steps toward independence or damaging the status quo with China. During his recent meeting with Young, Chen joked about the NUC announcement, telling Young there would be no surprises this time around, and that Young could "now take it easy and need not be in a stew anymore."

But while this year's meeting was relatively lighthearted, Chen made it clear that he will continue his push to alter Taiwan's identity. His effort to standardize the use of the name "Taiwan" is an attempt to break the public's mental association between China and Taiwan. He also is pressing for constitutional changes that potentially would include the name change and the exclusion of mainland China from the definition of Taiwan's territory. This is not the same as declaring independence, but it would begin to alter the framework in which Taiwan is currently constrained.

At the moment, Washington still wants to discourage Taiwanese moves toward independence. The United States has more than enough on its plate and does not want to deal with a crisis across the Taiwan Strait. But Chen sees Washington's distraction as an opening in which to make subtle policy shifts, especially while China is similarly distracted with internal politics and Olympics preparations. While domestically Chen is constrained by political realities -- and he certainly will not be declaring Taiwanese independence anytime soon -- the upcoming parliamentary polls and the presidential election that will follow will only cause Chen to accelerate his moves to bring about a new identity for Taiwan. And this will ensure that the ever-sensitive relations between Washington, Taipei and Beijing will have an added layer of complication.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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