Timoshenko has been negotiating from a position of power. Her bloc came in second in parliamentary elections in March, getting more votes than either of her coalition partners. Her campaign platform included a promise to revisit the deal struck in January following Russia's cutoff of natural gas. The idea resonated with many Ukrainians, who are ardently protesting the increasing costs of energy as prices rise to what the Russians are calling "market levels." Ukraine enjoyed massively subsidized prices for its energy while its government was friendly to Russia, but the change to a pro-Western regime during the Orange Revolution has moved the country out of Moscow's favor. Ukraine currently pays $95 per 1,000 cubic meters for natural gas -- achieved by mixing supplies from Russian state-controlled natural gas monopoly Gazprom, at $230 per 1,000 cubic meters, with supplies from Turkmenistan at $65 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Turkmenistan is key in this equation. Ruled by the autocratic Saparmurat Niyazov, who calls himself the "Turkmenbashi" (or "Father of all Turkmen"), the country has little else to drive its economy besides natural gas. The Turkmenbashi is known for being, to put it politely, eccentric and unpredictable. He has a fondness for giant golden statues of himself, has composed his own series of holy books, and has been known to cut off natural gas exports despite the fact that his country depends on them for income.

He has been in negotiations with Gazprom to lock down supplies for the future, as the Russian company simply would not have enough natural gas to supply all of its customers without Turkmenistan's contribution. What Gazprom has been doing, basically, is buying cheap natural gas from Central Asia and reselling to Europe. Realizing that he is not getting market prices for his product, the Turkmenbashi demanded a raise from $65 to $100 per 1,000 cubic meters of Turkmen natural gas. It remains to be seen whether noncompliance on Gazprom's part will lead him to cut supplies as he has done before. This would leave the giant company facing a very difficult choice -- cut supplies to Europe, or to domestic customers.

This is where the new Timoshenko government comes in. Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister Ivan Plachkov is scheduled to visit Turkmenistan next week to negotiate natural gas supplies and prices. There is nothing Timoshenko would like more than to find in the Turkmenbashi a willing partner to make life difficult for Russia. Gazprom functions as an arm of Russian foreign policy -- and if the Europeans see themselves facing yet another shortage at Gazprom's hands, it will make the upcoming Group of Eight heads-of-state summit in St. Petersburg very uncomfortable for Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Energy security" is high on the summit agenda, but Putin wants to discuss it from a position of strength -- not to be chastised by angry Europeans, or made to appear to be at the mercy of Timoshenko and the Turkmenbashi.

In the end, Ukraine may be the only party to benefit. Regardless of what price new negotiations yield, the bulk of Russian natural gas shipments to Europe must travel through pipelines that transit Ukraine, and the Ukrainians will continue to siphon off natural gas, just as they did during the January cutoff. Timoshenko gets to fulfill her campaign promise -- but most importantly, she can make trouble for Russia in Europe.

Of course, Moscow is not without recourse, either -- the pro-Russian Party of Regions, which got the most votes in Ukraine's parliamentary election in March, will challenge Timoshenko's policies as a formidable opposition in the new parliament. Its objections to many of this government's goals, including accession to NATO and the European Union, will stall any progress.

Regardless, this winter will be a cold one for either Russia or Europe -- or both -- as Gazprom will have to decide whom it can afford (financially and politically) to short.