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08/08/2007 | Brazil - Philips Joins The 'Tired'

Stratfor Staff

Cansei, a new campaign born from the recent TAM Flight 3054 crash in Brazil and intended to harness public outrage over government failures at all levels, could introduce a new degree of corporate involvement into the relationship between the government and the public. It will face significant obstacles to maintaining credibility as a nonpartisan movement, however.

 

An unusual political movement, thus far based primarily in Sao Paulo's upper and middle classes, has just been launched in Brazil to demand better governance. It is formally called the Civic Movement for the Rights of Brazilians, and is being spearheaded by the Sao Paulo branch of the widely respected Brazilian Bar Association (OAB-SP), the organization established by the constitution to test and certify Brazil's lawyers.

The Brazilian subsidiary of Holland's Royal Philips Electronics precipitously decided July 27 to join this group, hoping to maintain its claim to nonpartisanship in the process. If other companies follow suit, this movement could usher in a new dynamic in the three-way relationship among large companies, the government and the public. Even if Philips withdraws its participation, the campaign could be the seed of a movement strong enough to give the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) -- the main opposition party -- an edge going into the 2010 presidential election.

The movement's campaign title is "Cansei," which translates as "I'm tired and I've had enough." It was launched July 26 in the wake of Brazil's worst-ever airplane disaster, the TAM Flight 3054 crash on July 17. Cansei demands accountability not only for the nation's troubled air-traffic control system but also for multiple instances of alleged government mismanagement, negligence and corruption from the local to the federal level. Participants claim its purpose is not to target the administration of President Luis Inacio "Lula" da Silva per se, but rather to overcome complacency regarding a series of public and social ills. However, it has no clear agenda or demands yet -- and crafting a platform without attracting accusations of partisanship will be a significant challenge.

The minds behind the operation, including OAB-SP President Luiz Flavio Borges D'Urso and Business Leaders Group President Joao Doria Jr., claim Brazil has so many scandals that no single one remains in the public consciousness long enough to generate a demand for change. This is a rather uncontestable point; from unchecked gang violence to public works corruption scandals to congressional bribery schemes, one scandal piles on the next and those pushed down the queue tend to be buried. Brazil's Federal Police (equivalent to the U.S. FBI) has been remarkably active during the past few years investigating and exposing many of these scandals, but few of those indicted actually served jail time. The most clear and damaging effect of Brazil's corruption problems and political upheaval has been the series of delays and failures in implementing infrastructure expansion programs associated with the president's Growth Acceleration Program.

Despite Cansei's critical stance toward government performance, it claims to be nonpartisan, equally critiquing failures at the state and city levels where a variety of parties are in charge. If Cansei can maintain its credibility as a nonpartisan group, it could attract a significant following -- from grassroots to the halls of industry. This will be a tough claim to maintain, however, in the face of cries that it is an opposition front. Already the president of the ruling Workers' Party (PT) has publicly claimed Cansei is hiding its political motivations and is a front for PSDB. In addition, the umbrella Workers' Central Union, which has close ties to the PT, has started a spoof countercampaign focusing on the plight of poor workers, similarly called "We're tired."

The day after Cansei's launch, the top leadership of Philips in Brazil decided to join the campaign, claiming it complements the company's ethic of social responsibility. Philips is monitoring the reactions generated by its participation. A company spokesperson said July 30 that it could reconsider its affiliation with the campaign if Cansei takes on the appearance of a tool of the opposition, rather than a respectable outlet for Philips' commitment as a responsible corporate citizen. If Philips withdraws from the campaign early, it would not lose much, and it would have made its point. However, other companies likely would view Cansei with increased caution. The duration of Philips' participation is the canary in the coal mine for Cansei's appeal to the broader business community.

Although Philips reports it has received many words of encouragement for its decision thus far, its involvement in Cansei could certainly backfire. Not only could the government retaliate, but Brazil's geographical and class divisions could come into play.

A satirical piece called "Os Neocansados" (essentially, "The Neo-Tireds") in the Folha de Sao Paulo called the campaign an initiative of the "white, southern elite." Da Silva's main opponent in the 2006 presidential race, the center-right Geraldo Alckmin, hails from Sao Paulo and garnered a great deal of support in the relatively wealthy southern section of the country, while Lula swept the poor northeast and interior regions. If the Cansei campaign is perceived as an attack by Alckmin's support base on the current government, affiliation with Cansei could rub poorer Brazilians the wrong way.

However, the Cansei campaign could generate a following across the entire nation. Few Brazilians would disagree with the group's rhetoric so far. Cynical weariness at government failure is a basic component of the Brazilian spirit, as is optimism for the future of the country as a whole. Seldom has there been a mechanism to connect the weariness with the optimism and direct them into an outlet for constructive action.

In the wake of the TAM Flight 3054 crash, national emotions are running high, and Brazil is perhaps even more introspective than it was during the 2006 presidential campaign. The Cansei campaign will likely get a burst of popular support with its moment of silence Aug. 17 (one month to the day after the TAM Flight 3054 crash). After that, it will face the challenge of crafting a more specific agenda without feeding accusations of partisan objectives. The most likely outcome is that, despite its best efforts, the campaign will be too politicized for ongoing corporate participation, and companies will continue their lobbying efforts more quietly through their trade associations. This does not mean the campaign will be ineffective, however. Whether intended or not, the Cansei campaign could give the PSDB party an early edge in building popular support before the 2010 presidential election.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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