Attacks against oil interests in the Niger Delta often are attributed to the militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). However, it is more likely that the latest two incidents were carried out by groups that continue to operate under the MEND banner but no longer feel compelled to report to a central leadership.

The Nov. 15 bombing in Delta state was conducted by a group led by Gen. Tompolo, who is believed to be the leader of MEND's Delta state faction. A large amount of oil spilled after the blast and Shell reportedly reduced its output by between 20,000 and 50,000 barrels per day. The earlier incident in Akwa Iboe state is believed to have been carried out by a group operating under Prince Farah Ipalibo of the Niger Delta Strike Force. Neither the facilities nor oil personnel were impacted by the attack, though the gunmen managed to make off with machine guns taken from the security personnel before forces from the Nigerian Joint Military Task Force (JTF) were able to respond.

MEND no longer is the coordinated organization it once was, as evidenced by its degraded ability to conduct large-scale attacks. Rather, it has become a loose cooperation of criminal gangs and cult groups that seek control of trade routes and certain communities in the Niger Delta. Moreover, MEND as a group seems to care less and less about its original political objective -- ridding the delta region of the foreign oil companies that the group says are exploiting the area's people and natural resources -- and is now clearly motivated purely by power and greed. Foreign oil companies in these communities regularly are coerced into paying protection money.

One explanation for some of the recent attacks is a power struggle among various MEND factions. The undisputed arms smuggler for MEND, Henry Okah, aka Gbomo Jomo, was arrested in the Angolan capital Sept. 22, forcing MEND's factions to refigure their arms supply. Meanwhile, MEND leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari has begun aligning with the Nigerian government, acting as its liaison with militant groups. With Okah incapacitated and Asari in the government's pocket, faction leaders such as Tompolo and Farah could be attempting to fill the leadership voids.

Okah's arrest has limited the supply of weapons to MEND factions, which have responded by staging several recent attacks aimed at acquiring more weapons. For example, in two bloody attacks Nov. 12 against Cameroonian and Nigerian troops guarding an oil terminal, militants seized automatic weapons and a navy boat. Similarly, an Oct. 31 raid on a navy ship near the Pennington River, which left one officer dead, is believed to have been aimed at securing weapons.

MEND said in an e-mail dated Nov. 15 that it intends to spread beyond the Niger Delta region into other parts of Nigeria, attacking major bridges and other infrastructure in non-oil sectors. MEND has never carried out an attack outside the delta, and it likely would meet strong resistance from the government. Furthermore, given that local populations consider MEND a criminal organization, the threat to expand operations likely will lose it even more favor. The group, however, is probably hoping to use the expansionist threat to increase its bargaining power in the negotiations for control of the region's oil wealth.

Although Okah's arrest likely has had an impact on the long-term capabilities of MEND factions, it does not appear to have deterred militant factions from staging attacks against oil terminals. In these attacks, the perpetrators have opted to engage facilities with relatively light security and then flee when more heavily armed JTF troops arrive. The thousands of miles of unguarded oil pipelines running through the delta remain vulnerable to attack, and explosives such as the dynamite used in the Nov. 15 bomb are relatively easy to obtain from supply barges.

Additionally, MEND militants are still recovering from recent JTF engagements and are wary of directly confronting soldiers again any time soon. With troops committed to protecting hard targets in Port Harcourt and large oil terminals, more lightly protected targets are particularly vulnerable to attack.

Ijaw sources say the Nigerian government is continuing to funnel weapons into the Niger Delta to support the JTF's heavy security presence, and that the militants believe their actions constitute counterattacks against the soldiers. Despite MEND claims that its actions are aimed at redressing socioeconomic injustices, it remains clear that the group's motives are dictated by power and greed.