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24/10/2006 | SUDAN-Khartoum Moves Against Foreign Intervention in Darfur

Stratfor Staff

The expulsion of the U.N. special envoy to Sudan, Jan Pronk, on Oct. 23 is the latest in a series of moves by Khartoum to demonstrate its opposition to any foreign intervention aimed at resolving the Darfur crisis.

 

The Sudanese government expelled U.N. Special Envoy Jan Pronk on Oct. 23, the latest in a serious of moves by Khartoum to demonstrate its intentions to reject any foreign interference in the Darfur crisis.

Pronk's expulsion was prompted by accusations from the Sudanese armed forces that he was undermining the country's national security; specifically, the Sudanese military issued a statement Oct. 20 criticizing Pronk for describing two recent battles that government troops lost to Darfur militias. Pronk's expulsion order came two days later.

The same day the Sudanese military issued its statement against Pronk, U.S. Special Envoy Andrew Natsios left Khartoum. Natsios, who had been in Sudan for a week to press Khartoum to accept a proposed U.N. peacekeeping force, was unable to see Sudanese President Omar al Bashir during his visit. This was not the first time Bashir snubbed the Bush administration's envoy; the Sudanese president ignored U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer for days when she was in Sudan in late August.

Khartoum not only intends to reject diplomatic overtures from the international community, it intends to rearm itself should other countries threaten to intervene militarily in Darfur. Sudanese Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Hussein visited his Russian counterpart Oct. 19 to propose a billon-dollar arms-acquisition package. Sudan wants the capability to combat foreign efforts should the international community (via the U.N. Security Council) impose a no-fly zone over Darfur -- a sanction which is under discussion.

Besides seeking fighter planes and helicopters to beef up its aerial defenses, Khartoum has already signaled it will engage in a ground offensive against foreign peacekeeper intervention. Additionally, Sudanese Islamists are on record as stating their intention to fight any foreign intervention force and, notably, their intention to fight the Bashir regime should it accept a foreign peacekeeper force for Darfur.

Considering the heightened hostilities from all quarters in Sudan, and with memories of "Black Hawk Down" (and the many things that can go wrong during humanitarian interventions) still in the back of their minds, foreign policymakers have not vigorously pursued the idea of a military intervention in Darfur without Khartoum's approval.

Alternately, economic sanctions to force a concession out of Khartoum are not without detractors. If such sanctions were not vetoed outright, Khartoum would likely wiggle out of the sanctions' effectiveness thanks to support from its Chinese and Russian allies, who have interests in Sudan's emerging oil fields.

Khartoum, by expelling and ignoring senior foreign diplomats in addition to gearing up its military capabilities, is signaling that it wants no foreign intervention in Darfur and that it fully intends to defend its sovereignty. The likely outcome of this standoff is that the international community will try to appease Khartoum to resolve the Darfur crisis.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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