Ethiopia now faces a decision of whether to cut a deal with the Somalian Islamists, which would cause the quick collapse of the interim government, or to increase its defense of the Baidoa-based regime. Ethiopian fears of ICU designs on ethnic Somali territory in Ethiopia mean Ethiopia will choose to keep backing the interim government.

The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) called Ethiopia's troop deployment to Somalia in defense of the Baidoa-based interim government a declaration of war Sept. 25. The ICU national security chairman, Sheikh Yusuf Indahaadde, threatened Ethiopia with war following reports that Ethiopia had rushed several hundred troops to Baidoa on Sept. 22. A spokesman for Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry, however, said Sept. 26 that Ethiopian troops did not cross into Somalia.

Ethiopia faces a decision of whether to cut a deal with the Somalian Islamists, which would cause the quick collapse of the interim government, or to increase its defense of the Baidoa-based regime. Ethiopian fears of ICU designs on ethnic Somali territory in Ethiopia mean Ethiopia will choose to keep backing the interim government.

The Ethiopian reinforcement of Baidoa follows the Sept. 22 move by the ICU on the southern port city of Kismayo, previously under the control of a warlord serving as the interim government's defense minister. The takeover of Kismayo shortly thereafter was designed to deny the interim government the use of the port city and access to the porous border region with Kenya for purposes of rearming itself.

Ethiopia's decision of whether to back Somalia's interim government will determine the fate of the government. Should Addis Ababa strike a deal with the ICU, the interim government will fall since Interim President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed lacks an effective force capable of defending his government against the Islamists. Yusuf can be expected to flee northward before being overrun by the Islamists, toward the town of Gaalkacyo and the semiautonomous Puntland region, beyond a line separating the Hawiye and Darood clans. He may find, however, that using clans for political purposes is the double-edged sword of Somalian politics.

Ethiopia ultimately will decide to defend Baidoa based on its own national security concerns, not out of any particular regard for political governance in Somalia. Addis Ababa fears that without the Somalian interim government as a buffer zone and without Baidoa as a forward operating base, the ICU will have the freedom of movement to claim ethnic Somali territory inside Ethiopia. Somalis dominate Ethiopia's eastern Ogaden region, which has seen a secessionist insurgency campaign against the Ethiopian rule. And Addis Ababa could not tolerate the renewed strife among the Ogadeni by the ICU. Thus, fears that the ICU will work to create a "greater Somalia" will force the Ethiopian regime to defend its proxy in Baidoa.

SOMALIA (Wikipedia) (Somali: Soomaaliya; Arabic: الصومال, As-Suumaal), formerly known as the Somali Democratic Republic, is a coastal nation at the Horn of Africa in East Africa. Continentally, it is entirely surrounded by Ethiopia to the west, Djibouti on the north and mid-west, by Kenya on its south-west, and by the Gulf of Aden on its north, and the Indian Ocean at its eastern border. The Somalian state currently exists solely in a de jure capacity; Somalia has no recognized central government authority nor any other feature associated with an established independent state. De facto authority resides in the hands of the governments for the unrecognized entities of Somaliland, Puntland, the Supreme Islamic Courts Council and the weak, but United Nations-recognized, Interim transitional government in Baidoa about 250 kilometers north-west of the capital Mogadishu. Violence has plagued Somalia since warlords ousted former dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. 

Capital : Mogadishu 2°02′N 45°21′E

Largest city : Mogadishu

Official language(s) : Somali, Arabic, Italian (as a language of administration)

Government : Interim Transitional Government

President : Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed

Prime Minister : Ali Mohammed Ghedi

Independence

From : United Kingdom, Italy 

- Date July 1, 1960 

Area

- Total 637,657 km² (42nd) (246,201 sq mi) 

- Water (%) 1.6%

Population

- July 2005 est.8,228,000 (91st)

- 1987 census 7,114,431

- Density 13/km² (198th) (34/sq mi) 

GDP (PPP) 2005 estimate

- Total $4.809 billion (not ranked)

- Per capita 600 (not ranked) 

HDI (2003) NA (unranked) – NA

Currency

Shilling (SOS) 

Time zone: EAT (UTC+3)

- Summer (DST) not observed (UTC+3)

Internet TLD : .so

Calling code : +252

The independence of the British Somaliland Protectorate from the United Kingdom was proclaimed on June 26, 1960. On July 1, 1960, unification of the British and ex-Italian Somaliland took place. The government was formed by Abdullahi Issa. Aden Abdullah Osman Daar was appointed as President and Abdirashid Ali Shermarke as Prime Minister. Later, in 1967, Mohammed Ibrahim Egal became Prime Minister in the government appointed by Abdirishid Ali Shermarke. Egal was later chosen as President of the self-declared independent Somaliland. He died in a hospital in Pretoria on May 3, 2002.

In late 1969, a military government assumed power following the assassination of Shermarke, who had been chosen, and served as, President from 1967–1969. Mohamed Siad Barre, a General in the armed forces, became the President in 1969 following a coup d'état. The revolutionary army leaders, headed by Siad Barre, established large-scale public works programmes. They also successfully implemented an urban and rural literacy campaign, in which they helped to dramatically increase the literacy rate from a mere 5% to 55% by the mid-1980s.

In the meantime, Barre assassinated a major figure in his cabinet, Major General Gabiere, and two other officials. Intermittent civil war has been a fact of life in Somalia since 1977. In 1991, first insurgent forces led by Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, leader of the (SSDF), and President Ali Mahdi Mohamed officially was unrecognised head of the government. The same year, the northern portion of the country declared its independence as Somaliland; although de facto independent and relatively stable compared to the tumultuous south, it has not been recognized by any foreign government.

Following the failure of Operation Restore Hope and beginning in 1993, a two-year UN effort (primarily in the south) was able to alleviate famine conditions. The UN contingent included some US troops, 18 of whom were killed in fighting after a helicopter was shot down in Mogadishu (as shown in the film "Black Hawk Down").

The UN withdrew in Operation United Shield by March 3, 1995, having suffered significant casualties, and the rule of government has not yet been restored.

Yet another secession from Somalia took place in the northeastern region. The self-proclaimed state took the name Puntland after declaring "temporary" independence in 1998, with the intention that it would participate in any Somali reconciliation to form a new central government.

A third secession occurred in July 2006 with the declaration of the state of Jubaland. The territory of Jubaland is now declared its Regional Autonomy by its people. Col. Barre Aden Shire Hiiraale, chairman of the Administration of Jubba Valley Alliance Dooxada Jubbais the most powerful leader there.

A fourth self-proclaimed entity led by the Rahanweyn Resistance Army (RRA) was set up in 1999. This "temporary" secession was reasserted in 2002, leading to de facto autonomy of Southwestern Somalia. The RRA had originally set up an autonomous administration over the Bay and Bakool regions of south and central Somalia in 1999.

Somalia was one of the many countries affected by the tsunami which struck the Indian Ocean coast following the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, destroying entire villages and killing an estimated 300 people.

The 2nd Battle of Mogadishu started in May 2006. The battle is being fought between the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism or "ARPCT" and militia loyal to Islamic Courts Union or "ICU". The conflict began in mid-February. As of June 5th, at least 350 people, mostly civilians, have died caught in the crossfire. Mogadishu residents described it as the worst fighting in more than a decade of lawlessness. The Islamists blame the U.S. for funding warlords in an attempt to prevent them gaining power in the lawless country through its Central Intelligence Agency. The U.S. government and the CIA have neither admitted nor denied these allegations. A few emails describing covert illegal operations by private military companies in breach of UN regulations have been reported by the UK sunday newspaper The Observer.

The Somali transitional government president Abdullahi Yusuf told the BBC the alliance of warlords is not fighting on behalf of the government.

On June 5, 2006 it was reported that the Islamic Militia had taken control of Mogadishu, and Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi was seeking to open a dialog with them. Four powerful warlords who had been serving as ministers had been sacked.On 14 June 2006 the last ARPCT stronghold in the south, the town of Jowhar, fell with little resistance to the ICU. Reports had the remaining ARPCT forces fleeing to the east. As of this date the alliance appears near collapse with three warlords having withdrawn . The transitional government has approved the intervention of foreign peacekeepers.

Somali Islamist leaders expect to lobby African Union (AU) member states at an AU ceremony in Libya on September 9, 2006 to abandon a plan to send peacekeepers to Somalia, one of the leaders said. The Islamists are fiercely opposed to foreign troops -- and particularly Ethiopians -- in Somalia.

Islamists seized the Somalia port in the town of Kismayo; the last remaining port held by the government on September 25, 2006.