Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission will appeal any potential court ruling overturning the commission's decision to exclude Abubakar. Moreover, popular fears that postponing the election would open the door to a return of non-democratic rule are translating into pressure to hold the April 21 election on time, meaning Abubakar's political outlook in Nigeria is not good. Such a result would benefit Nigeria's critical oil sector, however.


The Federal High Court of Abuja on March 19 postponed for one day a hearing on Vice President Atiku Abubakar's appeal to overturn his disqualification from participating in Nigeria's April 21 presidential election.

Even a ruling in Abubakar's favor is not expected to improve his chances of becoming Nigeria's next president, however, as the country's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is expected to appeal any decision overruling its disqualification of the Nigerian vice president. With only weeks to go and the Nigerian electorate otherwise demanding that elections be held according to schedule, Abubakar's electoral chances -- slim even assuming he makes the ballot -- do not look good. For Nigeria's oil sector, however, the exclusion does not signal a bad turn of events.

Abubakar has endured the political consequences of incurring President Olusegun Obasanjo's wrath ever since he opposed Obasanjo's bid for a constitutional amendment to permit himself a third term in office. Abubakar's mobilization of his supporters among state government officials and in the National Assembly resulted in Obasanjo's ploy being defeated in a May 2006 vote in the Nigerian Senate. Obasanjo responded to this by acting upon previously ignored accusations of corruption against Abubakar. Obasanjo's report in September 2006 to the Nigerian Senate formally accused Abubakar of corruption, an impeachable offense that could see the vice president's immunity from prosecution lifted. In anticipation of his subsequent suspension from the ruling People's Democratic Party, Abubakar had joined the Action Congress (AC) party and accepted its presidential nomination by December 2006.

Abubakar's name did not appear on a March 15 list of eligible candidates two days after INEC ruled he was barred from running for the presidency because of his corruption indictment. While he immediately appealed the INEC ruling to the Federal High Court of Abuja, INEC will appeal any High Court overruling of Abubakar's disqualification to the Nigerian Supreme Court. (Both INEC and the Federal High Court are expected to claim constitutional justification for their rulings.)

Appeals notwithstanding, time is not on Abubakar's side. The Nigerian government faces considerable pressures from both the electorate and the international community to hold the election according to a long-established timetable. Any hint of delay beyond April 21 will reinforce fears among Nigerians that anti-democratic forces are bent on returning the country to dictatorial rule. This concern is understandable, given that military rulers have largely dominated Nigeria since independence. The European Union is anxious to see Nigeria consolidate its democratic transition, which began when Obasanjo was first elected president in 1999. (He was re-elected in 2003.) The European Union deployed election observers to Nigeria to oversee the 2007 election, which are set to result in the country's first transition from one elected leader to another.

Obasanjo has ordered Nigeria's armed forces to deploy throughout the country to contain any threat of violence that might accompany the election. Domestic and international scrutiny means the election is not likely to be postponed -- though, should Abubakar's supporters instigate violence, he increasingly will have to defend himself against charges of subverting democracy.

Abubakar lacks the nationwide political machinery that has enabled Obasanjo to establish Katsina state Gov. Umaru Yaradua and Bayelsa state Gov. Goodluck Jonathan as Nigeria's next president and vice president, respectively. In lining up his preferred candidates, Obasanjo has successfully negotiated the political horse-trading between northern and southern Nigeria. Yaradua hails from the North-West zone, while Jonathan hails from the South-South. The Yaradua-Jonathan team possesses regional balance, dampening fears that each region intends to claim more than its share of control over Nigeria's core resource: the oil in the South-South Niger Delta region. By contrast, Abubakar is more popular in the country's South-West zone of political influence, a hotbed of AC support, rather than in his home state of Adamawa in the North-East zone, where he is viewed as disloyal to the northern political establishment.

Abubakar's expected exclusion would create the positive byproduct of predictability for Nigeria's critical oil sector. Despite his appeal and other qualities, Abubakar is widely seen as corrupt. With the massive oil wealth of Nigeria -- the world's eighth-largest supplier of crude oil and the United States' fifth-largest supplier of crude -- at stake, an Abubakar presidency would be expected to spawn fresh presidential meddling into and bidding over lucrative Obasanjo-era oil sector contracts. Given Abubakar's effective disqualification, attention has now turned to Yaradua. And while Yaradua largely is seen as uncorrupted, oil companies already have factored in the cost of doing business with the ruling People's Democratic Party.