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03/09/2007 | Pakistan- Tipping Point

Kanchan Lakshman

That President Pervez Musharraf is currently facing his toughest challenge ever is now a given. While this may not be the end-game for the General, there is a vast churning process underway in Pakistan.

 

Whilst the direction and outcome of this process remains uncertain, what is beyond doubt is that the balance of power in Pakistan has undergone, and will continue in the immediate future to undergo, a radical transformation. This will certainly lead to far-reaching changes in the political and security milieu of South Asia.

With his tenure nearing an end, his popularity at an all-time low, and challenges to his regime mounting, General Musharraf is currently attempting to engineer his re-election through a strategy based essentially on unprincipled alliances and the manipulation of Constitution.

Musharraf intends to secure re-election for another five years between mid-September and mid-October 2007. (His current term as Chief of Army Staff expires in November 2007 and elections to the National Assembly are scheduled to take place in January 2008.) He does not enjoy sufficient popular support to win a free and fair election, and the now activist Supreme Court could prevent ‘pre-rigging’ and rigging of the electoral process. Aware that the next Parliament may not re-elect him, Musharraf’s strategy is to push through his re-election with the current Legislature in place, where he enjoys a majority.

His nomination for re-election is, however, vulnerable to an adverse verdict from the Supreme Court. A constitutional amendment can, however, neutralize this risk, though this would require a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly. He thus urgently needs backing for such a constitutional amendment, and also some assurance from the Opposition that there will be no street mobilization and countrywide civil unrest on the issue. It is within this scenario that the military regime is attempting to arrive at an alliance with the Pakistan Peoples Party, headed by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who, ironically, was exiled by Musharraf, under enveloping charges of corruption, after he came to power in the October 1999 coup d'etat.

The Musharraf-Benazir power sharing pact envisages, inter alia, the following:

  • General Musharraf doffs his uniform which he recently termed as his "second skin";
  • Benazir will support General Musharraf's bid for re-election without any fear of judicial review;
  • Benazir will be allowed to contest the General Elections in 2008;
  • She could be the Prime Minister as part of the arrangement;
  • She will not be prosecuted for corruption charges during her previous tenures as Prime Minister (1988-90 and 1993-96); and
  • Benazir wants the Musharraf regime to pass a constitutional amendment that would allow her to serve a third term as Prime Minister.

Further, the 'King's Party', the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid-e-Azam), or PML-Q, is reportedly negotiating for a separate deal with Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Leader of the Opposition, whose own faction of the Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam is part of the Islamist alliance, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). However, the MMA has not officially stated its position on the issue. Rehman, nevertheless, has admitted that he had been "offered the office of the Prime Minister in exchange for his support in the pre- and post-election period to President Pervez Musharraf."

The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) is the other major player. Its leader Nawaz Sharif, also a former Prime Minister, was exiled to Saudi Arabia by Musharraf, and has now got a new lease of life after the Supreme Court ruled, on August 23, that he "can return to Pakistan unhindered." Sharif, however, remains bitterly opposed to General Musharraf and is expected to return to Pakistan on September 10.

Politically, Musharraf has alienated too many forces. There is an intense conflict between the executive and an increasingly activist judiciary, which is basking in its new found independence. Conscious of the current mood in the country, President Musharraf and his advisors are currently attempting to secure an arrangement that allows for the continuance of the military’s stranglehold, albeit with some modifications. There are many indicators of a Dictator cornered. For instance, Musharraf recently stated that "There is a need for forgiving and forgetting the past because of the present political scenario and for moving ahead."

While much about the various deals is informed speculation at the moment, there are some indications that the present scenario could abruptly translate into a plausible new Pakistani version of ‘democracy’. At the core would be a new National Assembly constituted through purportedly ‘free and fair’ general elections and Pervez Musharraf as an ‘elected’ civilian President. The Musharraf-Benazir pact could, according to noted analyst Ayesha Siddiqa,

…reformat Pakistan military's partnership: shifting it from a military-mullah alliance to a military-liberal alliance (which was also the case during the 1960s). Such a marriage of convenience against religious extremism and cultural conservatism would be highly attractive to Pakistan's main external patron, the United States. The new relationship would need to be secured politically, the most likely mechanism being the manipulation of the electoral process that has so often been the forte of Pakistan's Army and its numerous intelligence agencies.

Reports indicate that the Musharraf-Benazir negotiations are being facilitated by both Washington and London. The international community, it appears, is "still eager to give Musharraf the benefit of doubt." The West’s record of engineering flawed democracies across the globe has, however, been disastrous. And assuming that the deal goes through, the US will have to deal with two strong forces, adding to present complexities. On countering terrorism, Benazir, who has the dubious distinction of having actively engineered the formation of the Taliban though the Inter-Services Intelligence, on the one hand, and Musharraf, on the other, have wide differences. Moreover, unprincipled alliances like the ones currently being designed will not strengthen democracy in Pakistan. History has shown that such pacts have only helped to consolidate the military’s control over power.

Amidst all this wheeling and dealing, the security scenario continues to deteriorate. The intense conflict between the Pakistani state and forces of radical Islam and other anti-state actors is expanding continuously. Large tracts of Pakistan are now clearly afflicted by escalating violence. The daily reports of the incidence of insurgent and terrorist activities in Pakistan communicate the enormity of the trajectory of violence and instability that has been undermining the authority of the state in progressively widening areas of the country over the past years. 1,584 people, including 554 civilians, 287 soldiers and 743 militants, have died in 2007 (till August 31). The flag of extremist Islam is, thus, fluttering vigorously across Pakistan, even as the state gradually withers away.

Among the multiple insurgencies currently raging in Pakistan, the bloodiest is under way in Waziristan – and it is symbolic of the decline of the State. In 2007 (till August 24), approximately 755 people, including 94 civilians, 97 soldiers and 564 militants, have already been killed in 174 incidents, an unambiguous indication of the state of play in this most troubled region. The extent of the state’s retreat is visible in the latest incident when a small group of approximately 20 militants captured over 150 soldiers (some reports mention 300 soldiers) after intercepting a military convoy in the Momi Karam area of Luddah subdivision in South Waziristan on August 30, 2007. At the time of writing, the soldiers were still being held hostage. Zulfiqar Mehsud, a spokesman for Taliban ‘commander’ Baitullah Mehsud, has declared that, "Our foremost demand is the implementation of the Sararogha agreement [February 2005], which binds the Government to contain the movement of troops in South Waziristan."

President Musharraf’s options are manifestly diminishing, and there is much evidence currently indicating the stratagems of a cornered man. He could still survive and engineer another false democratic setup, increasingly tailored to suit the interests of his external patrons, through a combination of crass opportunism and realpolitik. But Pakistan is now clearly at a potential tipping point. Jugnu Mohsin, publisher of The Friday Times,aptly notes: "After a period of relative quiet, for the first time in a decade, we are back to the old question: it is not just whither Pakistan, but will Pakistan survive?"

Kanchan Lakshman
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management; Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict & Resolution

South Asia Analysis Group (India)

 


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