Having multiple presidents fighting with each other as if they’re trying to win a reality show means that governing and cooperation do not occur.
Last
week I wrote that Colombian President Gustavo Petro “tweets more than he
governs,” but he’s far from the only Latin American politician who moonlights
as an internet troll. The past few weeks have seen the insults fly among Latin
American leaders, with Venezuela’s foreign minister labeling Argentina’s ruling
party “neo-nazis,” and Argentina’s president calling Colombia’s president a
“murdering terrorist.” Unfortunately for the region, the consequences of these
statements threaten to be deeper and longer lasting than the ephemeral number
of likes that a social media post receives.
The most
recent dispute between Argentina and Venezuela goes back to 2022 when
Argentina, under the previous administration of President Alberto Fernandez,
detained a Venezuelan cargo plane tied to a sanctioned Iranian company.
Venezuela said the plane was stolen from them and unjustly detained while the
U.S. and Paraguay both believe there was something suspicious about how the
aircraft was being used and its contents. When the government of Argentine
President Javier Milei handed the plane to the United States in February,
Venezuela acted with fury. While the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolas
Maduro had relatively good relations with Fernandez and did not want to
escalate the conflict, Maduro hates the government of Milei and the feeling is
mutual. Maduro and Milei portray themselves as dimetric opposites on the
left-right ideological spectrum and Milei has taken it upon himself to
criticize all leftists as he defends capitalist ideals.
The
real-world consequence of this dispute is that, in early March, Venezuela
closed off its airspace to planes traveling to Argentina. Now flights to and
from Argentina that would normally pass over Venezuela are being routed instead
over the Essequibo, a region of Guyana that Venezuela claims as its own. While
this is a simple logistics move by the airlines not intended to send any
geopolitical message, it threatens to inflame a regional dispute that has at
times threatened to become a military conflict. Online, critics of Maduro have
taken to posting flight paths of planes to Argentina to demonstrate the
emptiness of the regime’s rhetoric about the Essequibo.
This
isn’t the only dispute in which Milei has been involved. In an interview with
CNN’s Andres Oppenheimer last week, Milei called Gustavo Petro a “murdering
terrorist,” referring to the Colombian president’s past as a guerrilla with the
M-19 movement. In 1985, the M-19 held hundreds of people hostage in Colombia’s
Supreme Court building, leading to more than 100 deaths when security forces
stormed the building. Petro was in prison at the time and not involved in that
attack. The real-world impact of Milei’s name-calling is that Colombia ordered
Argentine diplomats to leave the country. It’s an “own goal” diplomatic failure
by Argentina and the dispute will make basic relations between the two
countries more difficult. In that same interview, Milei called Mexican
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador “ignorant.” AMLO, no stranger to insults
and media manipulation, has backed Colombia and said he doesn’t understand how
Argentines voted for Milei, and now Mexico-Argentina relations could take a
hit.
But the
name-calling isn’t just about left vs. right.
Without
referring to Petro by name, Maduro called out “cowardly leftists” who
criticized his government’s decision to ban opposition candidate Maria Corina
Machado. Colombia’s critique of Venezuela had been among the weakest in the
hemisphere, but Maduro understood that any criticism from Petro was a threat
due to the Colombian president’s leftwing credentials. Petro responded to
Maduro by referring to “Chavez’s magic,” or the way in which former Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez tried to change the world by democratic means. Petro’s
comment about Chavez was widely criticized in Colombia, where Chavez’s
reputation is among the worst in the world given the millions of Venezuelan
refugees who have been forced to flee to Colombia. However, on this issue,
Petro very well may be playing a smart political hand against Maduro. For the
Venezuelan opposition to obtain the sort of super-majority support that will
likely be necessary to push for a transition of power in Venezuela, they must
win over disaffected Chavistas. While the most hardline opponents of Maduro
equally hate Hugo Chavez, there are plenty of Venezuelan voters who dislike
Maduro but have a better opinion of the autocrat who died more than 10 years
ago, before the country totally collapsed.
That
last example of name-calling points to the real damage done by all the
ridiculous presidential back-and-forth of recent weeks. The region has serious
challenges, including economic development, climate change, and human rights.
Among the most urgent at the moment is coordinating a response to the
Venezuelan crisis and improving the electoral conditions in the country.
Unfortunately, it feels like many of the region’s presidents are too busy
insulting each other to effectively respond to the collapse of Venezuelan
democracy. Venezuela has made the problem worse, using manipulative rhetoric to
drive wedges among presidents in Latin America and between those leaders and
their populations.
This
sort of rhetorical fight on social media isn’t necessarily new. Almost 20 years
ago, before world leaders used Twitter, former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez
stood at the podium of the United Nations and called former President George W.
Bush “the devil.” Plenty of this hemisphere’s presidents, including former U.S.
President Donald Trump and Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, have created
internet personas that, like Chavez before them, use rude and undiplomatic
language as a way to gain attention and smear their domestic opponents.
Still,
the more Latin America presidents engage in such online battles, the worse it
is for the region. Having one bombastic autocrat yelling online is annoying.
Having multiple presidents fighting with each other as if they’re trying to win
a reality show means that governing and cooperation do not occur.
There is
a group of countries trying to apply the old internet rule of “don’t feed the
trolls” to hemispheric relations. This past week saw a respectable coordinated
statement about Venezuela from Latin American countries including Ecuador,
Guatemala, and Uruguay. Chile also published criticism of Maduro that was
responsible and avoided inflaming the situation. Those statements unfortunately
did not get anywhere near the coverage of the Milei-Petro-AMLO feud, and the
Maduro regime simply sidestepped the criticisms by focusing on the opponents
they preferred. The Maduro regime is incapable of meeting high standards of
decorum, but they can try to drag everyone else down to their level, and too
many of the region’s presidents are eager to play that game.
***James
Bosworth is the founder of Hxagon, a firm that does political risk analysis and
bespoke research in emerging and frontier markets. He has two decades of
experience analyzing politics, economics and security in Latin America and the
Caribbean.