Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, former president of Argentina, from left, Gustavo Menéndez, mayor of Merlo, Argentina, and Alberto Fernández, presidential candidate for the Citizen's Unity Party, arrive on stage during their first campaign event, in May.
BUENOS
AIRES — When President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner reached her two-term
limit in 2015, it felt as if an era had ended in Argentina. Flamboyant and
divisive, she had come to epitomize the populist Peronist politics, rooted in
economic interventionism and fervent nationalism, that have dominated this
country for much of the past 80 years.
Her
successor, Mauricio Macri, a staid center-right businessman who carefully
rations his public appearances, not only presented the personal antithesis to
Kirchner, but he also effectively ran on abolishing her governing model,
promising to modernize Argentina’s creaking economy and public institutions
with pro-market policies he said would result in “zero poverty.”
But even
as Kirchner faces trial on nearly a dozen charges of bribery, embezzlement and
money laundering from her time in office, she might be on the brink of an unlikely
comeback.
The
former president, 66, a member of the Argentine Senate, is running as
vice-presidential candidate to Alberto Fernández (no relation), the moderate
former chief of staff to her late husband and presidential predecessor Néstor
Kirchner, ahead of October’s elections.
Touring
the country with her new memoir, “Sincerely,” Kirchner has launched blistering
attacks on Macri’s business-friendly agenda.
“I
understand less and less those capitalists, who call themselves capitalists but
want the people to die of hunger and not to consume or spend,” she said during
one recent stop, according to a local television channel.
Under
Argentine election law, a president may serve no more than two consecutive
terms but can run again after sitting out a term. Kirchner’s unusual move —
reemerging as the running mate rather than the top of the ticket — has been
interpreted by some observers as a recognition that although she has a loyal
base, she is still deeply disliked by many voters and has a low electoral ceiling.
Polls
show the pair in a statistical dead heat with Macri, who is campaigning for
reelection, and his running mate Miguel Pichetto, an influential former senator
and Peronist known for his racially charged claims that Bolivian and Peruvian
migrants are causing a crime wave.
Macri is
calling on Argentines to stay the course and not revert to what he describes as
irresponsible economic populism. Argentines, he has said, need to “kill off”
that part of the national character that “for years believed that it was a
smart ploy to go into debt and then afterward blame the person who gave us the
money and not pay anyone,” the newspaper Clarín reported.
Both
tickets are registering around 40 percent support, making a November runoff
highly probable. Should Fernández and Kirchner win, few in Argentina expect the
former president to take a back seat in the new government.
What has
opened the door for the pair is the Macri administration’s luckless handling of
its economic overhaul, propelling Argentina into yet another one of the
periodic busts that have plagued the country for more than a century.
Inflation
this year is expected to top 40 percent. Unemployment has hit 10 percent, the
highest since 2006. Gross domestic product shrank nearly 6 percent in the first
quarter. Macri has taken a $57 billion loan from the International Monetary
Fund, the largest in the organization’s history.
The
effect has been crushing, particularly for the poorest.
“Historically,
in Argentina, when the economy is this bad, the government is finished,” said
Carlos De Angelis, a sociologist at the University of Buenos Aires. “But this
will be a close race. Most Argentines are disappointed with Macri, but many
also believe that these reforms take time. They don’t want a return to the past.”
That
past means a society polarized by Peronism, the ideologically amorphous
movement founded by Gen. Juan Perón in the 1940s. To explain his politics,
Argentines tell a joke about different world leaders driving a car. Perón, the
punchline goes, indicated left — but turned right.
Critics
say those divisions were deepened during Kirchner’s presidency from 2007 to
2015. She successfully shepherded Argentina’s long recovery after it defaulted
in 2001 on its external debt — the largest in history at the time — and
launched anti-poverty programs. She also put games from the country’s top
soccer league on public TV in a costly initiative that Macri subsequently
scrapped.
She was
accused of falsifying inflation figures, forged alliances with Venezuelan
leader Hugo Chávez and Russian President Vladimir Putin and gave Iran
significant control of the investigation into the unresolved 1994 bombing of a
Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.
Since
stepping down, Kirchner has attracted still more controversy, as a raft of
criminal investigations against her have advanced.
She is
accused of accepting irregular payments from Aerolíneas Argentinas, the
state-owned airline, and for thousands of rooms at the Alto Calafate, a hotel
she owns in Patagonia. She was also accused of favoring associate Lázaro Báez
in lucrative public works contracts.
Kirchner
and Báez have denied wrongdoing. As a sitting senator, Kirchner cannot be
detained.
Kirchner
and her supporters claim the cases are politically motivated. Fernández, the
presidential candidate, has insisted that the judges will eventually have to
“explain” themselves: “If justice exists, no one is convicting Cristina,” he
said.
Pablo
Secchi, who heads the Argentine chapter of the anti-corruption group
Transparency International, disagreed with that assessment.
“In
several of these cases, there appears to be good reason to investigate and see
if there was or wasn’t a crime,” he said. “Suspects have lots of guarantees in
Argentina, including the right to appeal.”
If
Fernández and Kirchner win the election, Secchi said, Argentina could enter
uncharted territory. Although the country has a record of trying former
leaders, he said, judges here have tended to look the other way when it comes
to those in power.
Argentine
voters will have the first chance to decide whether to turn a blind eye to the
allegations swirling around Kirchner, or to give a second chance to Macri, who
promised prosperity but so far has presided over an economic collapse.