Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit to Latin America included visits to Argentina, Ecuador, Mexico and El Salvador. The main themes of his visit were the current situation in Venezuela, human rights, terrorism, drug trafficking, and immigration.
With
regard to Venezuela, Pompeo’s presence in the region sent a message that the
U.S. will not abandon its goals of getting rid of Maduro’s regime. The
Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), Luis Almagro,
has urged the Trump Administration to increase pressure on Maduro, with special
emphasis on the “Cuban factor”. 20,000
Cuban intelligence agents, previously trained by the Soviet KGB and East German
Stasi, have been a key element in the survival of the Cuban regime. They have
been able to foil plots against Castro and have been able to survey the
military to avoid a coup d’ etat. They are protecting the Maduro regime with
the same methods.
In May,
the Administration imposed new sanctions on Cuba that included a ban on all
U.S. travel to the island.Earlier in the spring, the Trump Administration
allowed U.S. citizens to sue any entity or person found to be “trafficking” in
property that was expropriated from U.S. citizens after the 1959 revolution.
Likewise, the Administration imposed limits on the amounts of money that Cuban
Americans can send to their relatives living in Cuba.
The
effect of these sanctions is being felt. Cuba is now facing shortages of food,
and fuel as well as other hardships that complicate the functionsof everyday life.
However,
it is important that any sanction should have a direct impact on those who
occupy high positions in the security services as well as in the government of
Cuba. For a regime that has become so accustomed to remain indifferent to the
suffering of its own people, sanctions must affect the Cuban elites.
Cuban
intelligence is surveilling the Venezuelan military and threatening them. The
role of Cuba is becoming more and more important for the survival of Maduro and
his cronies as dissidence and criticism among members of the military and
political elite is becoming more and more significant.
The
torture and murder of Captain Rafael Acosta is a case in point. Acosta’s
torture and subsequent murder constituted a message the regime sent to the
military that criticism of the regime or dissent may lead to their suffering
and death. Likewise, former Minister of Interior, Retired General Miguel
Rodriguez was arrested last year for breaking ranks with Maduro under the
charge that he “attacked the unity” of the armed forces. The events of April
30thdisplayed a situation where members of the intelligence service (SEBIN)
such as Cristopher Figueres and the army joined the opposition and secured the
liberation of opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez.
Venezuelan
dissidents are being threatened with methods taught and used by Cuban
intelligence. Such Cuban activities are likely to encourage “Venezuelanization”
of other regimes in the region such as Nicaragua and Bolivia.
Therefore,
it is crucial that the Trump sanctions be aimed at hurting the Cuban troops as
well as the Venezuelan intelligence services even more than the military. At
the same time, it is important to establish contacts with the military to
encourage rebellion against their superiors.
In
addition to the Cubans, the Russians are helping the Maduro government. On July
19th, a Venezuelan war plane manufactured in Russia aggressively chased an
American plane, endangering the crew and the aircraft. United States Southern
Command issued a statement via twitter pointing out that “this action
demonstrates Russia’s irresponsible military support of Maduro’s regime, which
undermines the international rule of law and efforts to counter illicit
trafficking”. Russia has also sent 100 military experts to Venezuela.
At this
point the Maduro regime is using the negotiations between itself and the
opposition as a façade to gain time. Maduro has no intention of giving up power.
As negotiations unfolded, Alexis Rodriguez Cabello was appointed chief of staff
of the Venezuelan Bolivarian Armed Forces, the body with the most significant fire
power in the country. Rodriguez Cabello is a first cousin of Diosdado Cabello,
one of the strongest and most extreme members of the regime. Cabello is well
known for being a key boss in the Venezuelan drug trafficking state apparatus.
Likewise, General Fabio Zavarce was appointed commander of the National Guard.
Zavarce is connected with a regime para-military group called “La Piedrita”.
“La Piedrita”is one of the most dangerous para-military groups responsible for
violent actions in the Caracas area. These appointments were probably made not
only to reinforce the regime but also to weaken the power of Defense Minister,
Vladimir Padrino, who has become “less reliable” after he failed to avoid acts
of dissidence during the events of April 30th.
All of
the above shows that the regime will not be defeated easily unless their lives
are made to be areal hell. Last week the Treasury Department imposed sanctions
on four high military officers believed to be responsible for the torture and
assassination of Captain Acosta. Likewise, the assets of the Venezuelan General
Directorate of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM) were frozen.
Sanctions
against top security and political elites must be strengthened. Likewise,
sanctions against Cuba need to be reinforced. President Trump should use his
leverage with Vladimir Putin to urge Russia to stop arming Venezuela. It could
also be a good idea to maintain and even increase existing sanctions on Russia.
The U.S. must also continue efforts to approach key members of the military to
persuade them to switch sides and offer them all needed protections.
The
moment the United States gives in, the Maduro regime’s survival will be
guaranteed. If it does survive, it is likely that the region will continue to
be infested by drug traffickers and other undesirable elements. Latin American
countries, particularly in the Central American triangle are already in a state
of anarchy and suffer from high levels of crime. This problem needs to be
addressed urgently regardless of Maduro. The multiplication of narco-states is
a threat to the neighborhood where we live.
This
problem, largely ignored over the last 20 years, is an ongoing one. The removal
of the Maduro regime would be just a first step in a long journey for our
troubled neighborhood.
***About
Luis Fleischman: Dr. Luis Fleischman is a Senior Adviser to the Menges
Hemispheric Security Project at the Center for Security Policy in Washington
DC. He is also a professor of Sociology at Palm Beach State College. He is the
author of the book, "Latin America in the Post-Chavez Era: The Security
Threat to the United States."