Kurt Volker

✔@SpecRepUkraine

Russia rams Ukrainian vessel peacefully traveling toward a Ukrainian port. Russia seizes ships and crew and then accuses Ukraine of provocation???

3,421

11:36 PM - Nov 25, 2018

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Chrystia Freeland

✔@cafreeland

Canada condemns Russian aggression towards #Ukraine in the #KerchStrait. We call on #Russia to immediately de-escalate, release the captured vessels, and allow for freedom of passage. Canada is unwavering in its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.

18.2K

11:21 PM - Nov 25, 2018

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Nikki Haley

✔@nikkihaley

RT @USUN: “In the name of international peace and security, Russia must immediately cease its unlawful conduct and respect the navigational rights and freedoms of all states.”

1,893

1:49 PM - Nov 26, 2018

The U.N. Security Council convened an emergency meeting at 11 a.m. on Monday to discuss the matter, but Russian diplomats ensured that no meaningful action would be taken.

Julian Borger

✔@julianborger

And with that UNSC session on Ukraine is adjourned. Russian deputy rep, Polyanskiy delivered a sprawling speech painting the Azov Sea incident as part of a long-planned conspiracy against Russia, with the usual references to second world war. No one else spoke.

52

1:35 PM - Nov 26, 2018

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In a brief press conference with reporters, Stoltenberg called the crisis a reminder of the war going on in Ukraine. “All allies have condemned Russia’s aggressive actions in Crimea and in Ukraine,” he said, adding that NATO will “not recognize Russia’s illegal, Russia’s ongoing militarization’ of the Azov Sea, which “poses further threats to Ukraine’s independence.”

Both Russia and Ukraine enjoy legal use of the Azov Sea, which joins the larger Black Sea via a narrow body called the Kerch Strait. But since August, Russia has been harassing Ukrainian boats attempting to use it, creating, in effect, a blockade.

Stoltenberg said that NATO has “increased its presence in the Black Sea region,” both on land and with enhanced air policing. He urged all parties to work toward a diplomatic solution.

Next week, he said, he will meet with Ukranian Foreign Affairs Minister Pavlo Klimkin and representatives from nearby Georgia on further steps.

What The Azov Sea Crisis Says About Russia’s Plans and What To Do About It

The Russian actions took the world by surprise. But Ben Hodges, the former three-star commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, says the move was simply the latest step in Russia’s efforts to win control over the Black Sea.

“Everybody should be clear this is an entirely predictable next step by Russia. They are clearly the aggressor here. Any attempts by anybody to establish equivalence would be wrong. That would, in effect, validate Russia’s claims to territorial waters around Crimea,” he said. “We need to recognize what Russia is doing in the Black Sea region, [which is] more important for them even than the Baltic.”

Russia bases its Black Sea fleet near the city of Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed illegally in 2014.

Says Hodges, “Everything they do in the Middle East depends on their dominance in the Black Sea region” which includes Turkey and isn’t far from Syria. “What they are doing, in effect, is to draw an iron curtain across the Black Sea.”

But the West is limited in what it can do to deter Russia in the region, in large part because of the 1936 Montreux Convention, which prohibits countries that don’t border the sea from building a permanent naval presence there. “We have to come up a strategy within the confines of that convention,” says Hodges. “We have a lot of stuff in the Baltic region and in Poland but not as much yet in Romania and Bulgaria.”

Romania will be key to any such strategy. Hodges said the United States could help by accelerating the delivery of new Patriot missiles to Bucharest. The Romanian government first ordered the anti-missile weapons as part of a $3-billion-plus arms package in 2017, and added three more batteries in November. The U.S.also maintains a logistics base in Romania that could support additional troops as a deterrent, said Hodges.

Land-based weapons like armed Predator or Reaper drones could also help curb Russian military hostilities there, he said.

NATO forces already conduct air policing missions in the region. Hodges says that NATO should convert those to air defense missions, which would have different rules of engagement. That, he said, would “strengthen capability in the region.”

NATO and the West should figure out a strategy soon, he says. The tensions in the shallow Azov Sea may portend similar troubles in the larger Black Sea. The commercial importance of the region for Ukraine, Georgia, Romania, and Turkey is growing with the expected 2021 completion of Romania’s Anaklia large deepwater shipping port.

Correction: An earlier version of this article stated that the “Medvedev” referred to in the recording was Russian politician Dmitry Medvedev. The deputy head of Russia’s FSB Border Service also shares the last name “Medvedev.” The recording does not specify which one is being referred to.

***Patrick Tucker is technology editor for Defense One. He’s also the author of The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? (Current, 2014). Previously, Tucker was deputy editor for The Futurist for nine years. Tucker has written about emerging technology in Slate, The Sun, MIT Technology Review, Wilson Quarterly, The American Legion Magazine, BBC News Magazine, Utne Reader, and elsewhere.