A new Syria is emerging. And with it, a new Middle East and world are presenting themselves. Our new world is not a peaceful or stable one. It is a harsh place.
The new Syria is being born in the
rubble of Aleppo.
The eastern side of the city, which
has been under the control of US-supported rebel groups since 2012, is being
bombed into the Stone Age by Russian and Syrian aircraft. All avenues of
escape have been blocked. A UN aid convoy was bombed in violation of a fantasy
cease-fire. Medical facilities and personnel are being targeted by Russia
and Syrian missiles and barrel bombs to make survival impossible.
It is hard to assess how long
the siege of eastern Aleppo by Russia, its Iranian and Hezbollah partners and
its Syrian regime puppet will last. But what is an all but foregone conclusion
now is that eastern Aleppo will fall. And with its fall, the
Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah-Assad axis will consolidate its control over all of western
Syria.
For four years, the Iranians,
Hezbollah and Bashar Assad played a cat and mouse game with the rebel
militias. Fighting a guerrilla war with the help of the Sunni population,
the anti-regime militias were able to fight from and hide from within the
civilian population. Consequently, they were all but impossible to defeat.
When Russian President Vladimir
Putin agreed to join the fight, he and his generals soon recognized that this
manner of fighting ensured perpetual war. So they changed tactics. The new
strategy involves speeding up the depopulation and ethnic cleansing of
rebel-held areas. The massive refugee flows from Syria over the past year are a
testament to the success of the barbaric war plan. The idea is to defeat the
rebel forces by to destroying the sheltering civilian populations.
Since the Syrian war began some
five years ago, half of the pre-war population of 23 million has been
displaced.
Sunnis, who before the war
comprised 75% of the population, are being targeted for death and exile. More
than 4 million predominantly Sunni Syrians are living in Turkey, Lebanon and
Jordan. More than a million have entered Europe. Millions more have been
internally displaced. Assad has made clear that they will never be coming home.
At the same time, the regime and
its Iranian and Hezbollah masters have been importing Shi’ites from Iran, Iraq
and beyond. The process actually began before the war started. In the lead-up
to the war some half million Shi’ites reportedly relocated to Syria from
surrounding countries.
This means that at least as far
as western Syria is concerned, once Aleppo is destroyed, and the 250,000
civilians trapped in the eastern part of what was once Syria’s commercial
capital are forced from their homes and property, the Russians, Iranians,
Hezbollah and their Syrian fig leaf Assad will enjoy relative peace in their
areas of control.
By adopting a strategy of total
war, Putin has ensured that far from becoming the quagmire that President
Barack Obama warned him Syria would become, the war in Syria has instead become
a means to transform Russia into the dominant superpower in the Mediterranean,
at the US’s expense.
In exchange for saving Assad’s neck
and enabling Iran and Hezbollah to control Syria, Russia has received the
capacity to successfully challenge US power. Last month Putin brought an
agreement with Assad before the Duma for ratification. The agreement permits –
indeed invites – Russia to set up a permanent air base in Khmeimim, outside the
civilian airport in Latakia.
Russian politicians, media and
security experts have boasted that the base will be able to check the power of
the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet and challenge NATO’s southern flank in the
Mediterranean basin for the first time. The Russians have also decided to turn
their naval station at Tartus into something approaching a full-scale naval
base.
With Russia’s recent rapprochement
with Turkish President Recip Erdogan, NATO’s future ability to check Russian
power through the Incirlik air base is in question.
Even Israel’s ability to permit the US
access to its air bases is no longer assured. Russia has deployed air assets to
Syria that have canceled Israel’s regional air superiority.
Under these circumstances, in a
hypothetical Russian-US confrontation, Israel may be unwilling to risk Russian
retaliation for a decision to permit the US to use its air bases against
Russia.
America’s loss of control over the
eastern Mediterranean is a self-induced disaster.
For four years, as Putin stood on the
sidelines and hedged his bets, Obama did nothing. As Iran and Hezbollah devoted
massive financial and military assets to maintaining their puppet Assad in
power, the Obama administration squandered chance after chance to bring down
the regime and stem Iran’s regional imperial advance.
For his refusal to take action when
such action could have easily been taken, Obama shares the responsibility for
what Syria has become. This state of affairs is all the more infuriating
because the hard truth is that it wouldn’t have been hard for the US to defeat
the Iranian- Hezbollah axis. The fact that even without US help the anti-regime
forces managed to hold on for four years shows how weak the challenge posed by
Iran and Hezbollah actually was.
Russia only went into Syria when Putin
was absolutely convinced that Obama would do nothing to stop him from
dislodging America as the premier global power in the region.
As Michael Ledeen recalled earlier
this week, Obama chose to stand on the sidelines in Syria because he wanted to
make friends with Iran. Obama began his secret courtship of the mullahs even
before he officially took office eight years ago.
After the war broke out in Syria,
midway through his first term and in the following years, the Russians and the Iranians
told the obsessed American president that if he took action against Assad, as
strategic rationality dictated, he would get no nuclear deal, and no
rapprochement with Tehran.
So Obama let Syria burn. He let Iran
and Hezbollah transform the country into their colony. And he let Putin
transform the Mediterranean into a Russian lake.
Obama enabled the ethnic cleansing of
Syria’s Sunni majority, and in turn facilitated the refugee crisis that is
changing the face not only of the Middle East but of Europe as well.
And as it turns out, the deal with
Iran that Obama willingly sacrificed US control of the Mediterranean to achieve
has not ushered in a new era of regional moderation and stability through
appeasement as Obama foresaw. It has weakened US credibility with its spurned
Sunni allies. It has undermined the strategic position of Israel, the US’s only
stable and reliable regional ally. It has financially and strategically fueled
Iran’s hegemonic rise throughout the region. And it has facilitated Iran’s
development of a nuclear arsenal.
Far from causing the Iranian to become
more moderate, the nuclear deal has radicalized the regime still
further. On Wednesday Ray Takeyh wrote in The Washington Post that Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei is now grooming Ibrahim Raisi, a fanatic who makes Khamenei
look moderate, to succeed him in power.
On Monday night, for the first time,
Israel Air Force jets flying over Syria were shot at by Syrian anti-aircraft
ordnance.
Air force sources told the media
that the aircraft were never in danger and the munitions were only shot off
after the aircraft had returned to Israel and were in the process off landing.
The fact that no one was hurt is
of course reassuring.
But the fact that Russia
targeted the planes makes clear that Putin has decided to send Israel a very
clear and menacing message.
He is now the protector of the
Iranian-Hezbollah colony on our northern border. If Israel decides to
preemptively attack targets belong to that colony, Russia will not stand by and
watch. And with the US no longer well-positioned to challenge Russian power in
the region, Israel will have to deal with Russia on its own.
To face this challenge, Israel needs
to look beyond its traditional reliance on air power.
There are two parts of the challenge.
The first part is Iran.
As far as Israel is concerned, the
problem with the Russian- Iranian takeover of Syria is not Putin.
Putin is not inherently hostile to
Israel, as his Soviet predecessors were. He is an opportunist. Obama gave him
the opportunity to partner with Iran in asserting Russian dominance in the
Middle East and he took it. Israel is threatened by the alliance because it is
threatened by Iran, not by Putin. To neutralize the alliance’s threat to its
own security, Israel then needs to degrade Iran’s power, and it needs to
emphasize its own.
To accomplish these goals, Israel
needs to operate in two completely separate arenas. To weaken Iran, Israel
should take its cue from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, and from its own
past successful military ties to the Kurds of Iraq in the 1960s and 1970s.
Israel needs to deploy military
trainers beyond its borders to work with other anti-Iranian forces. The goal of
that cooperation must be to destabilize the regime, with the goal of
overthrowing it. This may take time. But it must be done. The only way to
neutralize the threat emanating from the new Syria is to change the nature of
the Iranian regime that controls it.
As for Russia, Israel needs to
demonstrate that it is a power that Putin can respect in its own right, and not
a downgraded Washington’s sock puppet.
To this end, Israel should embark on a
rapid expansion of its civilian presence along its eastern border with Syria
and with Jordan. As Russia’s air base in Syria undermines Israel’s air
superiority and reliance on air power, Israel needs to show that it will not be
dislodged or allow its own territory to be threatened in any way.
By doubling the Israeli
population on the Golan Heights within five years, and vastly expanding its
population in the Jordan Valley, Israel will accomplish two goals at once. It
will demonstrate its independence from the US without harming US strategic
interests. And it will reinforce its eastern border against expanded strategic
threats from both the Golan Heights and the new Jordan with its bursting population
of Syrian and Iraqi refugees.
It is ironic that the new Middle
East is coming into focus as Shimon Peres, the failed visionary of a fantasy-
based new Middle East, is being laid to rest. But to survive in the real new
Middle East, Israel must bury Peres’s belief that peace is built by appeasing
enemies along with him. The world in which we live has a place for dreamers.
But dreams, unhinged from
reality, lead to Aleppo, not to peace.
**Originally published in The
Jerusalem Post.
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01/11/2023| |
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21/03/2021| |
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24/06/2020| |
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22/07/2018| |
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10/07/2018| |
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27/05/2018| |
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30/03/2018| |
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30/03/2018| |
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26/12/2017| |
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03/07/2017| |
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02/07/2017| |
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18/02/2017| |
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14/01/2017| |
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04/01/2017| |
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03/12/2016| |
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02/12/2016| |
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29/08/2016| |
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11/06/2016| |
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23/04/2016| |
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05/02/2016| |
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18/10/2015| |
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01/08/2015| |
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04/07/2015| |
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16/05/2015| |
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16/03/2015| |
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29/11/2014| |
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22/10/2014| |
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20/10/2014| |
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14/10/2014| |
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06/10/2014| |
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19/09/2014| |
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12/09/2014| |
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28/08/2014| |
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22/08/2014| |
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10/08/2014| |
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18/07/2014| |
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22/06/2014| |
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22/06/2014| |
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09/05/2014| |
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30/04/2014| |
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21/04/2014| |
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13/01/2014| |
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17/12/2013| |
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21/10/2013| |
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06/10/2013| |
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01/09/2013| |
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24/08/2013| |
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21/08/2013| |
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03/08/2013| |
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08/07/2013| |
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27/05/2013| |
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20/04/2013| |
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25/03/2013| |
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14/11/2012| |
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22/10/2012| |
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22/10/2012| |
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03/09/2012| |
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25/08/2012| |
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19/08/2012| |
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13/08/2012| |
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04/08/2012| |
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11/06/2012| |
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11/06/2012| |
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22/04/2012| |
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10/10/2011| |
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10/10/2011| |
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25/09/2011| |
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25/09/2011| |
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21/09/2011| |
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15/09/2011| |
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19/08/2011| |
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14/08/2011| |
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06/08/2011| |
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02/08/2011| |
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28/07/2011| |
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24/07/2011| |
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29/06/2011| |
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29/06/2011| |
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14/06/2011| |
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10/06/2011| |
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10/06/2011| |
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31/05/2011| |
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31/05/2011| |
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26/05/2011| |
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08/04/2011| |
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22/03/2011| |
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10/03/2011| |
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06/03/2011| |
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20/02/2011| |
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06/02/2011| |
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22/01/2011| |
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12/01/2011| |
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08/01/2011| |
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01/01/2011| |
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29/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
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23/12/2010| |
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19/12/2010| |
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26/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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16/11/2010| |
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06/11/2010| |
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03/11/2010| |
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13/10/2010| |
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10/10/2010| |
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04/10/2010| |
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22/09/2010| |
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15/09/2010| |
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28/08/2010| |
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13/08/2010| |
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31/07/2010| |
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24/07/2010| |
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29/05/2010| |
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04/05/2010| |
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30/04/2010| |
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26/04/2010| |
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17/04/2010| |
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11/04/2010| |
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01/04/2010| |
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14/03/2010| |
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28/02/2010| |
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15/02/2010| |
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13/12/2009| |
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13/12/2009| |
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15/11/2009| |
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15/11/2009| |
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05/11/2009| |
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27/10/2009| |
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11/08/2009| |
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02/08/2009| |
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02/08/2009| |
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14/07/2009| |
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08/03/2009| |
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07/03/2009| |
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03/03/2009| |
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03/03/2009| |
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01/03/2009| |
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01/03/2009| |
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22/02/2009| |
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10/01/2009| |
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02/01/2009| |
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19/11/2008| |
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19/11/2008| |
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28/10/2008| |
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28/10/2008| |
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06/10/2008| |
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06/10/2008| |
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25/09/2008| |
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25/09/2008| |
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23/04/2008| |
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16/04/2008| |
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04/04/2008| |
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12/03/2008| |
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18/01/2008| |
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12/01/2008| |
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23/11/2007| |
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27/10/2007| |
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10/10/2007| |
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25/09/2007| |
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20/09/2007| |
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28/08/2007| |
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16/07/2007| |
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14/07/2007| |
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03/07/2007| |
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01/06/2007| |
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01/06/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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17/04/2007| |
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17/04/2007| |
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13/04/2007| |
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13/04/2007| |
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03/04/2007| |
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22/03/2007| |
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17/03/2007| |
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28/02/2007| |
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25/01/2007| |
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25/01/2007| |
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10/01/2007| |
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10/01/2007| |
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30/12/2006| |
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30/12/2006| |
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22/12/2006| |
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22/12/2006| |
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17/12/2006| |
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17/12/2006| |
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06/12/2006| |
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06/12/2006| |
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07/11/2006| |
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24/10/2006| |
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18/10/2006| |
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29/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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15/05/2006| |
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28/03/2006| |
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24/01/2006| |
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21/01/2006| |
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09/01/2006| |
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19/12/2005| |
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11/12/2005| |
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21/11/2005| |
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13/11/2005| |
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27/09/2005| |
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27/09/2005| |
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11/09/2005| |
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23/08/2005| |
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31/07/2005| |
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25/07/2005| |
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18/07/2005| |
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26/06/2005| |
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08/06/2005| |
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24/05/2005| |
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19/04/2005| |
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19/04/2005| |
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06/04/2005| |
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