Syria's protest movement is largely peaceful, says U.S Ambassador Robert Ford. But the longer President Bashar Assad prolongs his ferocious campaign to suppress the challenge, the greater is the likelihood that Assad's claims to be facing an armed sectarian rebellion will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Ford, a career diplomat and Arabist who served three
tours in post-Saddam Iraq, tells TIME in a phone call from Damascus, the Syrian
capital, that although the pro-democracy movement has not yet turned to
violence, some protesters have armed themselves to defend their families and neighborhoods.
"There is shooting [by protesters] at Syrian security forces, that is
absolutely true," he says. "The government says it, but what the
government is not saying, is that their repressive actions are triggering a lot
of the violence." Ford adds that unless Assad changes tactics, "the
[protester] violence problem will grow worse, as will the problem of sectarian
conflict. The Syrian government's policies are driving this and they need to
stop it."
There are few indications that Assad intends to heed
Ford's advice. Six months of a ruthless crackdown have left at least 2,700
people dead and more than 20,000 in detention (some of whom are feared dead).
Some Syrians are now calling for protection from the international community,
but like many things related to the fragmented Syrian opposition, there is
disagreement as to what that might mean. The spectrum of opinion covers
everything from full-throttled NATO intervention on the lines of Libya to creating
and protecting and a Benghazi-like haven near the Syrian-Turkey border,
deploying international monitors or simply providing greater political support.
"One of the things we've told the opposition is that
they should not think we are going to treat Syria the same way we treated
Libya," Ford says. "The main thing for the opposition to do is figure
out how to win away support from the regime, and not look to outsiders to try
and solve the problem. This is a Syrian problem and it needs Syrian solutions."
The first step toward a Syrian solution is to organize
the opposition into a united front. The recently formed Syrian National Council
(SNC) aims to bring Assad's fragmented foes under a single umbrella. Last week,
the influential Local Coordination Committees of Syria, a key grassroots
protest group, grudgingly offered its support to the 140-member SNC despite
"the way it was formed, and the forces [it] represent[s]." The group
was unhappy with the number of Islamists involved in the SNC, and the process
by which its members were appointed. On Thursday, the Syrian Revolution
Coordinating Union, another street-level organization, threw it weight behind
the group.
People power is one element of the opposition; another is
military defectors. It's unclear how many men in uniform have switched sides
(Ford had no figures), or the reach of the so-called Free Syrian Army led by
Colonel Riad al-As'ad, which claims to be operating within Syria. There is
anecdotal evidence from videos posted on the Internet that defections are
increasing, particularly around the central city of Homs, nearby Hama, the
northern area of Idlib and the southern city of Dara'a, where the uprising
began in mid-March.
They are largely engaging in defensive, rather than
offensive, missions, they say, but that might change given that many Syrians
now question whether protests and international pressure will be enough to
dislodge Assad. The relatively successful Libyan example of armed insurrection
beckons, but Syria is not Libya — it has far more ethnic and sectarian
diversity, and is bordered by unstable states such as Lebanon and Iraq that
share that simmering mix, not to mention Israel. A civil war in Syria could
very easily engulf its neighbors.
Ford, who had a front-row seat to Iraq's sectarian civil
war, is strongly advising the opposition against a turn to arms. "It would
be a mistake," he says, not least because "you want to be sure that
if you're even contemplating this, you have a way to know that whatever you're
going to do militarily is going to be effective ... I very frankly say to
people, you don't have enough force to fight the Syrian army, you're not even
close. We have to be realistic."
The lesson of Iraq, Ford says, apart from forming a democratic
transition plan early on, is that the opposition "absolutely has to get
wide buy-in at the start," from all of Syria's diverse communities,
especially the Alawites — the Shi'ite-related minority from which President
Assad hails and from which most of the security and political elite is drawn.
That's easier said than done, says Radwan Ziadeh, a
member of the SNC and a visiting scholar at the Institute for Middle East
Studies at George Washington University. Although three prominent Syrian
Alawite clerics recently issued a statement denouncing Assad's
"atrocities" and urging their co-religionists to unhitch their fate
from the President's inner clique, only a small number of Alawites have openly
joined the opposition. Ziadeh says their presence is important, not only to
infer nationwide credibility to the movement but also so that a process of
reconciliation can begin.
Still, it's difficult to reach out to Alawites in Syria,
in the midst of a continuing security crackdown largely orchestrated by senior
members of that community and the regime's efforts to cast the conflict on
sectarian lines. "This is the big challenge, especially when we see the
torture that Alawite officers are committing," says Ziadeh, whose brother,
an uncle and three cousins have all been detained, their whereabouts and fates
are unknown.
Still, the international community is trying to create a
wedge between the regime and its backers. It has slapped individual sanctions
on key figures, as well as economic sanctions. Although Syria exports some 95%
of its petroleum to Europe, Assad mocked the tougher penalties in his most
recent speech in late August, saying that if the West was going to close its
markets to him, he'd turn east: "Today, alternatives are available,"
he said.
Not really, says Ford. Syria's crude is heavy and
sulphuric, the ambassador says, and needs refining. "The countries in the
East that have [the necessary refining facilities], such as India, already have
long-term supply contracts, so how are they going to sell to refineries that
already have supplies and contracts? The Syrians are not going to be so easily
able to just suddenly switch and put their crude in another market."
That's why Ford and others are cautioning the opposition to wait for pressure
and sanctions to bite, and the economy to crumble further rather than pick up
arms. "Time isn't on Assad's side," he says.
The Gulf Arab states have "lost their patience"
with Assad, Ford continues, highlighting the fact that Saudi Arabia and other
Gulf states have withdrawn their ambassadors from Damascus. Although some
Syrians fear that a deal may be brokered by Riyadh to keep a weakened,
chastised Assad in power on the condition that he break with longtime allies
Tehran and Hizballah, Ford doesn't see it happening. "I do not sense that
they are looking to somehow re-engage [him] and pull him away from Iran."
Ford also isn't looking to re-engage Syrian officials.
The ambassador — who has raised the regime's ire with his activist diplomacy by
traveling to Hama and other flashpoint cities, as well as to pay his
condolences in Dara'a to the family of Ghiyath Mattar, a rights activist
tortured and killed by the regime — says he has not had a high-level political
discussion with the Syrian government in weeks. His last meeting with an
official was Tuesday, at the Foreign Ministry, a "routine issue about
embassy operations and visas," Ford says. "We just have nothing to
say," he adds. "They know we are looking for change on the
ground."