It may be that Mr. Lobo simply got caught up in the moment and was careless. It is entirely possible that he's now regretting his words and wishing he could take them back. But it's too late... the cat is out of the bag.
President Porfirio Lobo's informal endorsement of Juan Orlando Hernández to be the next President of Honduras represents a strategic blunder for the Nationalist Party. It prematurely exposes the person Mr. Lobo favors to be his successor, thereby creating a sense within his party that the primary election process next year will not be a fair and open exercise. Whenever someone as powerful as the President chooses sides, it is inevitable that the other sides will feel slighted and aggrieved, and that this will do nothing but fuel suspicions and resentment... which, in turn, will lead to infighting and division. Proof of this scenario is already underway.
Yesterday, the President of the Nationalist Party and current Mayor of Tegucigalpa, Ricardo Álvarez, said on television, "If the President is promoting national unity in the government of national unity, this should be practiced in-house first, and if you get behind and endorse one of the pre-candidates and say 'this is my candidate', you immediately divide the party." He stressed, "If the President of Honduras, with his entire [political] machine, leans in favor of someone, that initiates the division of the Nationalist Party."
Mr. Álvarez is one of the leading contenders for the Nationalist Party's nomination to run for the Presidency in 2013.
At the time of his remarks, Mr. Lobo was overseeing the handing out of welfare payments to the poor in the town of San Manuel de Colohete (Lempira). He was accompanied by Mr. Hernández, who is currently the president of the Congress and is expected to soon declare his candidacy. Other prospective Nationalist presidential candidates include former Minister of Security Óscar Álvarez, Congressman Fernando Anduray, Vice-President Víctor Hugo Barnica, Minister of the Presidency and Vice-President María Antonieta Guillén de Bográn, former Minister of Foreign Relations Mario Canahuati, businesswoman Eva Fernández, and Minister of Public Works Transportation and Housing Miguel Pastor.
It may be that Mr. Lobo simply got caught up in the moment and was careless. It is entirely possible that he's now regretting his words and wishing he could take them back. But it's too late... the cat is out of the bag. Mr. Lobo is now going to have to find a way to quickly repair the damage he has done before it spreads and turns into a major political problem for his party and another unnecessary distraction for the country.
In the meantime, Mr. Lobo's gaffe provides a small opening for the Liberal Party. If the Liberals -- who are deeply divided between conservatives, so-called "Liberals in Resistance", and confused socialists -- are able to effectively reconcile their differences over the next year and produce a consensus candidate, they may stand a decent chance of retaking the Presidential House... particularly if the Nationalists, in their over-confidence, assume they have the luxury of bickering.
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Note: The author is the editor and cofounder of Honduras Weekly. He is also the cofounder of projecthonduras.com, an international network of volunteers involved in humanitarian development projects aimed at empowering the people of Honduras. He directs the annual Conference on Honduras in the town of Copán Ruinas in northwestern Honduras. He was born in Tegucigalpa.
