As we enter 2011, the Euro-Atlantic region is a study in strategic contrasts. Over the past 20 years, no geopolitical space has undergone as dramatic a transformation as that between the Atlantic and the Urals. In our lifetimes, we have seen a welcome change from the darkest days of the Cold War, when a devastating conventional and nuclear war in Europe was a real possibility, to a new era in which no state faces this type of existential threat.
But, despite these positive developments, the two largest
powers in the region — the United States and Russia — each still possesses
thousands of nuclear weapons, accounting for more than 90 percent of the
world’s nuclear inventory. Many of these weapons remain deployed or designed
for use within the Euro-Atlantic region.
Reduction and elimination of this Cold War-era nuclear
infrastructure is the largest piece of unfinished business from that bygone
time. The continuing existence of large strategic nuclear forces deployed on
high alert, and of tactical nuclear weapons deployed in certain NATO states and
Russia, creates a risk of accidental, unauthorized or mistaken use. In addition,
the risk of terrorist groups acquiring these weapons is high. Therefore,
security vigilance is essential.
To meet this challenge and to build on the action plan
adopted by consensus at the 2010 non-proliferation treaty review conference, we
have endorsed a series of urgent, practical steps toward the long-term goal of
a world free of nuclear weapons. These include:
increasing assured warning and decision times for the
launch of nuclear-armed ballistic missiles;
developing cooperative missile defense and early-warning
systems;
ensuring the highest possible standards of security for
nuclear weapons and materials;
beginning a dialogue on tactical nuclear weapons
involving Russia, the United States and NATO;
adopting a process to bring the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty into effect;
developing international and multilateral approaches to
manage the risks of fuel production for civilian nuclear power; and
further reductions in U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.
As former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz, former
U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry
Kissinger and former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn put it in 2007: “Without the bold
vision [of a nuclear weapons-free world], the actions will not be perceived as
fair or urgent. Without the actions, the vision will not be perceived as
realistic or possible.”
Perhaps the most crucial step toward realizing this
vision is to redouble our efforts to resolve regional confrontations and
conflicts that give rise to new nuclear powers. The great swath of states
stretching from North America across Europe through Russia has a vital role to
play in stabilizing an increasingly fragmented and stressed international
order.
These states can play this role, however, only if first
they transform this geographic space into a genuinely inclusive and vibrant
security community. Failing that — and we are failing today — the Euro-Atlantic
states and their organizations will settle for suboptimal, and too often
utterly inadequate, responses to the 21st century’s security challenges,
including the threat of nuclear proliferation.
Lately, several national leaders, including the Russian
and U.S. presidents and NATO secretary-general, have embraced the idea of a
Euro-Atlantic security community, and begun stressing the importance of
fashioning a stronger and more inclusive European security order.
The timing could not be better, as the Euro-Atlantic
family has entered a critical period. On Nov. 19-20, NATO heads of states
approved a new “strategic concept” to guide the organization for the next
decade. At the same time, President Dmitry Medvedev and his NATO counterparts
issued a joint statement, endorsing the first Joint Review of 21st Century
Common Security Challenges and deciding to resume threat missile defense
cooperation. Two weeks later, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe heads of state assembled in Astana, Kazakhstan, to help shape the OSCE’s
next stage of development.
Joint action on nuclear-threat reduction must be a
critical element in moving the Euro-Atlantic nations toward a level of
stability and strength and allow them to exercise badly needed global
leadership. Achieving a genuinely collaborative approach to missile defense
matters will address a common threat and help remove misgivings that are
blocking progress toward a common security space.
Similarly, the Euro-Atlantic states can mobilize behind
efforts to strengthen the International Atomic Energy Agency’s safeguards
system, which ensures the nondiversion of peaceful nuclear programs, in order
to foster cooperation on countering the threat of nuclear terrorism and to
develop new mechanisms to protect jointly critical infrastructure from cyber
attacks. Such actions are crucial to these states’ national security and global
efforts to mitigate threats.
Pursuing arrangements that increase warning and
decision-making time for all countries in the Euro-Atlantic region would
introduce stability into the NATO-Russia relationship. Adjustments in
operational doctrine that are applied to strategic, tactical and conventional
forces would constitute a giant step toward ending the relationship’s
militarized framework.
This is only a partial list of what must be done if
governments are serious about building a stronger, inclusive European security
order, one where the roles and risks of nuclear weapons are reduced and ultimately
eliminated. We are working with a distinguished group from all corners of the
Euro-Atlantic region to develop these and other concrete steps that are
essential to creating a genuine security community, including its economic,
energy and environmental dimensions. NATO, OSCE and other key regional
institutions must give this concept and process their essential support.
**Sam Nunn, who served as a U.S. senator for 24 years, is
co-chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Igor Ivanov was foreign minister
from 1998 to 2004. Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador to Britain
and the United States, is chairman of the Munich Security Conference. They are
co-chairmen of the Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative commission. © Project
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