Russia is on the eve of a pre-presidential election year. What happens in 2011 will, in my opinion, be even more important than the presidential election itself. Indeed, the evolution of Russian society could transform the country’s politics, despite those domestic opponents who deny change or those who unqualifiedly classify Russia as “incorrigibly authoritarian.” But for that to happen, a new agenda for Russia must be developed this year.
A decade ago, defense of Russia’s territorial integrity
and restoration of governability topped the list of priorities. People
supported President Vladimir Putin, who was devoted to this “stabilization”
agenda. We may debate the means by which it was pursued, and how successfully,
but Russia’s “existential” challenges were largely overcome.
But progress on stabilization only highlighted Russia’s
unresolved problems, which the global financial crisis exacerbated, but did not
cause. After all, the country’s resource-based, de-industrializing,
expenditure-driven economy is the result of purely domestic choices. Nor was it
the crisis that gave rise to corruption at all levels of the government or that
caused Russia to lose its democratic dynamic.
Russia rode along on oil and gas windfalls, forgetting
that these natural resources will not last forever. But even with favorable
world market conditions, we did not manage to solve the problem of poverty,
which still affects tens of millions of Russians.
I am convinced that Russia’s troubles all come down to
politics. We need a democratic and competitive environment, initiative at all
levels, an active civil society and real public control. Only under such
conditions will difficult problems lend themselves to solution.
But starting in 2005-06, the authorities implemented
measures that made responsiveness to acute problems practically impossible. The
decisions to cancel direct elections of governors, to introduce party-list
voting, to raise the electoral threshold for parties to enter the State Duma
and to repeal the minimum-turnout requirement — all accompanied by rampant
manipulation of elections and the mass media — created a political system
closed to feedback from society. Not surprisingly, the political elite became
self-absorbed and served only its own narrow interests.
Last summer, with wildfires raging outside Moscow, the
elite’s isolation took on a menacing nature. But something else happened:
Society became more demanding.
Although the traditions of self-organization in Russian
society are neither deep nor strong, real movement in this direction became
visible for all to see. Activists from public movements, journalists,
environmentalists, businessmen and ordinary people who had suffered the tyranny
and corruption of public officials began to join in.
One disturbing tendency is that the struggle between
democratic and anti-democratic tendencies is becoming acute. If the
anti-democratic tendencies win out, all that we have accomplished in previous
years will be jeopardized — including stability itself.
This threat evidently motivated President Dmitry Medvedev
in November to say: “It is no secret,” Medvedev wrote in his blog, “that
starting from a certain period, symptoms of stagnation have begun to appear in
our political life, and the threat of turning stability into a factor of
stagnation has appeared.”
The president’s statement was unexpected. Medvedev’s
assessment attested to his understanding that Russia’s problems are rooted in
its politics — in the degradation of the ruling party, in the absence of a real
opposition and in the lack of respect for the rights for political minorities.
Improving education must be a top priority. We have
approached the point when the constitutional requirement of universal, free
education may become a fiction. People are asking: How is it that, after World
War II, the government had enough money to provide free education, whereas
today it doesn’t?
The new agenda must include a strong economic component.
Russia needs a breakthrough toward an up-to-date, knowledge-based and
environmentally sustainable economy. Here, I see a direct connection with the
problem of education.
I am convinced that Medvedev must become the leader in
the process of formulating the new Russian agenda, and he must act in the
coming year. Society will support him.
**Mikhail Gorbachev, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, was
the last president of the Soviet Union.© Project Syndicate