Ever since the global economic crisis shook the world in 2008, we have been hearing dire warnings about the imminent end of capitalism.
In Russia, these warnings have particular significance since the Soviet Union
predicted the downfall of capitalism ever since the country’s ideological idol,
Karl Marx, wrote his famous words about capitalism sowing the seeds of its own
destruction.
To be sure, the early stages of capitalism in the
mid-1800s were “imperfect,” to put it lightly. The Soviet Union rejected
capitalism outright and tried to build a fundamentally new classless society in
which nobody would be exploited. With assistance and guidance from Moscow, many
countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa followed the same course.
But some 70 years after the “great communist experiment”
started, Soviet communism — as well as the Soviet Union itself — collapsed like
a house of cards. This was followed by the collapse of communism in Eastern
Europe and other parts of the world. In Cambodia, for example, Communist
leaders of the bloodyPol Pot regime were tried from 2006 to 2009 and
sentenced for crimes against humanity, having killed about 2 million Cambodians
from 1975 to 1979.
Those countries that have remained nominally “communist”
— above all, China — have adopted market economies. The violent, revolutionary
days of the Great Leap Forward or the Cultural Revolution are long gone. Now
their chief slogan is: “Make a lot of money!” As the Chinese like to say, “We have
socialist capitalism: socialism in word — capitalism in practice.”
Russia’s Communists and other opponents of Western
capitalism love to praise the Chinese economic model, arguing that it
successfully combines a market-based economy with autocratic rule. But even
Chinese leaders sometimes hedge their bets, acknowledging that they have yet to
create a stable, long-term economic system. To be sure, China is still
instituting the reforms of Deng Xiaoping, who first laid the foundation in
1978 for China’s path toward a market economy. Deng’s expression, “Cross the
river by feeling the stones underfoot as you go,” has relevance today. Beijing
is still moving forward by experimenting, occasionally making mistakes —
cutting itself on sharp stones as it were — backtracking and correcting the
course of its reforms.
The Chinese Communist leadership has always stressed that
the dominant role of the Communist Party is necessary to manage and preserve
the country’s development and economic growth, that “unlimited democratization”
would plunge the country into chaos, disorder, ethnic strife and economic
downfall. On the backdrop of China’s Cultural Revolution and other periods of
turmoil and violence — although these periods had nothing to do with “unlimited
democratization,” of course — modern China’s version of autocratic capitalism
for many Chinese looks like a blessing from heaven.
According to the Chinese model, gradual democratization
is possible only after the economy has first reached a certain level of development
and the middle class has grown to become a large, secure social and political
buffer. That is what happened in South Korea and Taiwan, both gradually
evolving into democratic and prosperous countries. This is apparently the path
the Chinese leaders would like to follow, although there is more evidence over
the past 10 years that they are taking the directly opposite path — toward
increased political repression.
Contrary to a popularly held opinion among critics of
Western liberalism and capitalism, in reality China does not offer a viable
alternative to the modern Western model. At the same time, the Western model is
by no means ideal and self-sustaining; it must be continually improved and
properly regulated to avoid abuses.
The huge challenge for Russia as it tries to find an
economic and political model that works the best — whether it be Chinese,
Western or some combination of the two — is to overcome the backwardness of its
health care, pension and education systems and to somehow reduce the country’s
rampant crime and corruption.
Russia’s passionate admirers of the Chinese model should
not have any illusions: China’s economic miracle is not applicable to Russia.
For thousands of years, Chinese have been accustomed to working hard for meager
pay. What’s more, China’s authoritarian leaders feel obliged to uphold the
principles of morality and duty, restraint and moderation to maintain the
“mandate of heaven.” For these two reasons alone, it is clear that the Chinese
model doesn’t fit Russia.
**Yevgeny Bazhanov is vice chancellor of research and
international relations at the Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy in Moscow.