Ms Bhutto's death potentially holds the seeds of international catastrophe, allowing radical forces to move one step closer to gaining control of the world's most unstable nuclear-armed state. In her final months, Ms Bhutto foresaw the murderous attacks against her and warned that, left unchecked, Taliban forces would be marching on the Pakistan capital, Islamabad, within two years.

Despite her chequered history as two-time prime minister of Pakistan, Ms Bhutto undoubtedly represented the country's best prospect of a smooth return to democratic rule following President Pervez Musharraf's declaration of emergency rule in November. She was also the West's best hope to help close off Pakistan's border region with Afghanistan for use as a safe haven by Islamic militants engaged in a war against the West.

Whoever is found to be responsible for Ms Bhutto's death, it represents a significant boost for the extremists, including Osama bin Laden and al-Qa'ida. The shooting-and-bombing murder of Ms Bhutto has already unleashed explosive forces of protest, aimed initially at Mr Musharraf, Ms Bhutto's main political opponent, who has responded by putting the country on red alert. Planning for national elections, scheduled to be held on January 8, has been thrown into disarray.

Ms Bhutto's assassination may initially strengthen Mr Musharraf's claim that the alternative to his authoritarian rule is extremist-led chaos. But Ms Bhutto's death is also confirmation of Mr Musharraf's failure on many fronts. Despite the known dangers, he failed to provide adequate security for the political contest that was supposed to restore democracy. Rather than contain the extremists, Mr Musharraf has run roughshod over Pakistan's democratic institutions for little apparent dividend. Distracted by power, the Pakistani military is split and less potent.

The fact is, Ms Bhutto's murder was the latest in a series of suicide attacks that mirror al-Qa'ida's insurgent campaign that crippled Iraq. Radical forces linked to al-Qa'ida and the Taliban now occupy large areas of Pakistan, including the former tourist destination and skiing resort Swat Valley, north of Islamabad. This year, there was a bloody showdown in the capital to root out Islamic militants from a two-month occupation of the Red Mosque compound, which they had used as a base from which to impose Islamic law.

The spiralling escalation of violence underscores the extraordinary bravery shown by Ms Bhutto in returning voluntarily to re-enter Pakistan's political fray. As a woman and symbol of modernisation and democracy, Ms Bhutto has long been a prime target for the radicals. She was the target of a bomb attack in October, immediately following her return to Pakistan after brokering a deal with Mr Musharraf that decades-old corruption charges against her be dropped.

As the daughter of the nation's first democratic prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Ms Bhutto held a status akin to dynastic royalty. Educated at Harvard and Oxford, her passion for politics and desire to bolster democracy in Pakistan was forged in the state execution of her father by General Zia ul-Haq's military dictatorship in 1979. In 1988, at 35 years of age, Ms Bhutto became the first woman elected prime minister of any modern Muslim nation. Hostility from clerics and others towards her progressive agenda prevented Ms Bhutto from firmly taking the reins of government, allowing the country to slide into economic crisis. Within two years, Ms Bhutto's first government was controversially dismissed by the military-backed president and an election called, in which her party, the Pakistan People's Party, was defeated. In 1993, Ms Bhutto was re-elected but again dismissed three years later on the grounds of mismanagement and corruption. Ms Bhutto later claimed radical Islamic elements were behind both dismissals. She said Osama bin Laden had contributed $10 million to the Pakistan intelligence service, the ISI, to help it overthrow her first government. The Pakistani Army's decision to terminate her second government followed Ms Bhutto's pledge to crack down on terrorism.

Pakistan's current crisis began in March, when Mr Musharraf sought to dismiss the country's Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, whom his government accused of abusing the perks of his office. The move sparked pro-democracy protests, with lawyers and others taking to the streets against Mr Musharraf. At the same time, despite resistance among Pakistan's growing middle class, extremism began reaching into big cities. Today, Pakistan remains split between those who want civil liberties and others seeking to establish a strict Islamic state.

Mr Musharraf has been embraced by the West as an ally in the war on terror. But there are growing suspicions that he is either unable or unwilling to deliver on promises to clamp down on the emergent radical forces. One view is that continued secular violence provides Mr Musharraf with the justification to bolster his authoritarian rule. But Mr Musharraf overplayed his hand in November when he declared emergency rule, suspending the constitution and forcing the resignation of judges, jailing opponents and taking popular television broadcasters off the air.

For the West, Ms Bhutto was considered to be the logical vehicle around which to rebuild democracy and to provide greater co-operation for international efforts to root out terrorists in the Afghanistan border region. Ms Bhutto's assassination has removed the clear path forward for those who oppose the rise of radical Islam in the region and increased the alarming prospect of al-Qa'ida one day getting its hands on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. As such, is it difficult to overstate the size of the victory her death represents for al-Qa'ida and the loss it poses for moderate Pakistanis. The violent immediate reaction throughout Pakistan to Ms Bhutto's murder is testament to the size of the loss and the challenge it presents to Mr Musharraf. Ms Bhutto's death has weakened Mr Musharraf's legitimacy at a time when it desperately needed to be bolstered. The natural response will be to attempt to further consolidate power under the guise of the need for emergency powers. But the big challenge remains to put Pakistan back on the road to democracy. To abandon the promise of free elections now would serve only to amplify the unwelcome success that the extremists have achieved.